Modeling Climate Change Effects on Genetic Diversity of an Endangered Horse Breed Using Canonical Correlations.

Abstract: The historical increase in the occurrence of extreme weather events in Spain during the last thirty years makes it a perfect location for the evaluation of climate change. Modeling the effects of climate change on domestic animals' genetic diversity may help to anticipate challenging situations. However, animal populations' short life cycle and patent lack of historical information during extended periods of time drastically compromise the evaluation of climate change effects. Locally adapted breeds' gene pool is the base for their improved resilience and plasticity in response to climate change's extreme climatic conditions. The preservation of these domestic resources offers selection alternatives to breeders who seek such improved adaptability. The Spanish endangered autochthonous Hispano-Arabian horse breed is perfectly adapted to the conditions of the territory where it was created, developed, and widespread worldwide. The possibility to trace genetic diversity in the Hispano-Arabian breed back around seven decades and its global ubiquity make this breed an idoneous reference subject to act as a model for other international populations. Climate change's shaping effects on the genetic diversity of the Hispano-Arabian horse breed's historical population were monitored from 1950 to 2019 and evaluated. Wind speed, gust speed, or barometric pressure have greater repercussions than extreme temperatures on genetic diversity. Extreme climate conditions, rather than average modifications of climate, may push breeders/owners to implement effective strategies in the short to medium term, but the effect will be plausible in the long term due to breed sustainability and enhanced capacity of response to extreme climate events. When extreme climatic conditions occur, breeders opt for mating highly diverse unrelated individuals, avoiding the production of a large number of offspring. People in charge of domestic population conservation act as catalyzers of the regulatory changes occurring during breeds' climate change adaptive process and may identify genes conferring their animals with greater adaptability but still maintaining enhanced performance. This model assists in determining how owners of endangered domestic populations should plan their breeding strategies, seeking the obtention of animals more resilient and adapted to climate-extreme conditions. This efficient alternative is focused on the obtention of increased profitability from this population and in turn ensuring their sustainability.