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PloS one2015; 10(6); e0131021; doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0131021

Modelling the Abundances of Two Major Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) Species in the Niayes Area of Senegal.

Abstract: In Senegal, considerable mortality in the equine population and hence major economic losses were caused by the African horse sickness (AHS) epizootic in 2007. Culicoides oxystoma and Culicoides imicola, known or suspected of being vectors of bluetongue and AHS viruses are two predominant species in the vicinity of horses and are present all year-round in Niayes area, Senegal. The aim of this study was to better understand the environmental and climatic drivers of the dynamics of these two species. Culicoides collections were obtained using OVI (Onderstepoort Veterinary Institute) light traps at each of the 5 sites for three nights of consecutive collection per month over one year. Cross Correlation Map analysis was performed to determine the time-lags for which environmental variables and abundance data were the most correlated. C. oxystoma and C. imicola count data were highly variable and overdispersed. Despite modelling large Culicoides counts (over 220,000 Culicoides captured in 354 night-traps), using on-site climate measures, overdispersion persisted in Poisson, negative binomial, Poisson regression mixed-effect with random effect at the site of capture models. The only model able to take into account overdispersion was the Poisson regression mixed-effect model with nested random effects at the site and date of capture levels. According to this model, meteorological variables that contribute to explaining the dynamics of C. oxystoma and C. imicola abundances were: mean temperature and relative humidity of the capture day, mean humidity between 21 and 19 days prior a capture event, density of ruminants, percentage cover of water bodies within a 2 km radius and interaction between temperature and humidity for C. oxystoma; mean rainfall and NDVI of the capture day and percentage cover of water bodies for C. imicola. Other variables such as soil moisture, wind speed, degree days, land cover or landscape metrics could be tested to improve the models. Further work should also assess whether other trapping methods such as host-baited traps help reduce overdispersion.
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Publication Date: 2015-06-29 PubMed ID: 26121048PubMed Central: PMC4487250DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0131021Google Scholar: Lookup
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Summary

This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.

The research explores environmental and climate factors affecting the population dynamics of two major insect species (Culicoides oxystoma and Culicoides imicola) in the Niayes region of Senegal that are suspected vectors of African horse sickness and bluetongue viruses. These species have significant impact on local horse populations and thus, the area’s economy.

Research Methodology

The researchers carried out extensive data collection and analyses:

  • They collected samples of Culicoides oxystoma and Culicoides imicola using OVI light traps at five different sites for three consecutive nights per month over a year.
  • Cross Correlation Map analysis was applied to identify the time-lags at which environmental variables and abundance data had the strongest correlation.

Findings

The findings revealed high variability and overdispersion in the count data for both species. Overdispersion was a persistent phenomenon seen even when large counts were modeled using on-site climate measures. The researchers explored several models, but the only one successful in accounting for overdispersion was the Poisson regression mixed-effect model with nested random effects at the site and date of capture levels.

Environmental & Climatic Drivers

The researchers identified several environmental and climatic drivers that influence the abundance of these two species:

  • For Culicoides oxystoma: mean temperature and relative humidity of the capture day, mean humidity between 21 and 19 days before a capture event, density of ruminants, percentage of water bodies covering within a 2 km radius, and interaction between temperature and humidity.
  • For Culicoides imicola: mean rainfall and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of the capture day, and percentage cover of water bodies.

Future Directions & Recommendations

The study suggested testing other variables such as soil moisture, wind speed, degree days, land cover, or landscape metrics to improve the models further. Additionally, the researchers proposed assessing other trapping methods, like host-baited traps, to help reduce overdispersion. This study is a foundational step in better understanding these specific species’ dynamics and how they can be better managed or controlled.

Cite This Article

APA
Diarra M, Fall M, Lancelot R, Diop A, Fall AG, Dicko A, Seck MT, Garros C, Allène X, Rakotoarivony I, Bakhoum MT, Bouyer J, Guis H. (2015). Modelling the Abundances of Two Major Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) Species in the Niayes Area of Senegal. PLoS One, 10(6), e0131021. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0131021

Publication

PloS one
ISSN: 1932-6203
NlmUniqueID: 101285081
Country: United States
Language: English
Volume: 10
Issue: 6
Pages: e0131021

Researcher Affiliations

Diarra, Maryam
  • Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles, Laboratoire National de l'Elevage et de Recherches Vétérinaires, Dakar, Sénégal; Université Gaston Berger, Laboratoire d'Etudes et de Recherches en Statistiques et Développement, Saint-Louis, Sénégal.
Fall, Moussa
  • Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles, Laboratoire National de l'Elevage et de Recherches Vétérinaires, Dakar, Sénégal.
Lancelot, Renaud
  • Cirad, UMR15 CMAEE, F-34398 Montpellier, France; INRA, UMR1309 CMAEE, F-34398 Montpellier, France.
Diop, Aliou
  • Université Gaston Berger, Laboratoire d'Etudes et de Recherches en Statistiques et Développement, Saint-Louis, Sénégal.
Fall, Assane G
  • Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles, Laboratoire National de l'Elevage et de Recherches Vétérinaires, Dakar, Sénégal.
Dicko, Ahmadou
  • Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles, Laboratoire National de l'Elevage et de Recherches Vétérinaires, Dakar, Sénégal.
Seck, Momar Talla
  • Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles, Laboratoire National de l'Elevage et de Recherches Vétérinaires, Dakar, Sénégal.
Garros, Claire
  • Cirad, UMR15 CMAEE, F-34398 Montpellier, France; INRA, UMR1309 CMAEE, F-34398 Montpellier, France.
Allène, Xavier
  • Cirad, UMR15 CMAEE, F-34398 Montpellier, France; INRA, UMR1309 CMAEE, F-34398 Montpellier, France.
Rakotoarivony, Ignace
  • Cirad, UMR15 CMAEE, F-34398 Montpellier, France; INRA, UMR1309 CMAEE, F-34398 Montpellier, France.
Bakhoum, Mame Thierno
  • Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles, Laboratoire National de l'Elevage et de Recherches Vétérinaires, Dakar, Sénégal.
Bouyer, Jérémy
  • Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles, Laboratoire National de l'Elevage et de Recherches Vétérinaires, Dakar, Sénégal; Cirad, UMR15 CMAEE, F-34398 Montpellier, France; INRA, UMR1309 CMAEE, F-34398 Montpellier, France.
Guis, Hélène
  • Cirad, UMR15 CMAEE, F-34398 Montpellier, France; INRA, UMR1309 CMAEE, F-34398 Montpellier, France.

MeSH Terms

  • Animals
  • Ceratopogonidae / physiology
  • Female
  • Models, Biological
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • Senegal
  • Species Specificity

Conflict of Interest Statement

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

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