Population viability analysis on domestic horse breeds (Equus caballus).
Abstract: In this study, we performed a population viability analysis on 3 domestic horse breeds (Equus caballus) of Danish origin, namely, the Frederiksborg, the Knabstrupper, and the Jutland breeds. Because of their small population sizes, these breeds are considered endangered. The Vortex software simulation package was used for the population viability analysis. First, we investigated the future viability of these breeds based on present demographic and environmental parameters. Second, a sensitivity analysis revealed the most important variables for the viability of these breeds. Third, we examined management scenarios in which one of the studbooks was closed. According to the Vortex analysis, 2 of the breeds (Knabstrupper and Jutland) will persist for the next 200 yr, whereas the smaller breed (Frederiksborg) could become extinct within 40 yr. The sensitivity analyses indicated that the variables concerning reproduction of the mares had the greatest impact, with the number of mares actively breeding being the most influential on the population forecasts. The results suggest that closing the Knabstrupper studbooks can be done only if increasing the number of mares actively breeding counteracts the loss of genetic variation attributable to such a management strategy. It is recommended, based on these results, that the number of Frederiksborg and Knabstrupper mares actively breeding must be increased to approximately 30% in the 2 breeds that are presently using only 13%, while leaving the third (Frederiksborg ) at its present 30% level. Monitoring of the breeds in the future, however, may be exploited to adjust the breeding strategies. We suggest that the large amount of data required by Vortex makes it very useful for analyzing domestic animals because of the comprehensive data material often available. The results of this analysis accord with other studies on the Prezwalski horse, indicating robustness in the parameter sensitivity for horses.
Publication Date: 2009-08-14 PubMed ID: 19684264DOI: 10.2527/jas.2008-1760Google Scholar: Lookup
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- Journal Article
- Research Support
- Non-U.S. Gov't
Summary
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The research article focuses on an analysis conducted on three endangered Danish horse breeds to determine their future survivability based on present parameters, and to spot influential variables for their viability. The study also tested different management scenarios and offered recommendations for breed preservation.
Overview of the Research Study
- The study was centered around three domestic horse breeds: Frederiksborg, Knabstrupper, and Jutland. These are all of Danish origin and are currently seen as endangered due to small population sizes.
- The researchers conducted a population viability analysis using Vortex, a software simulation package dedicated to assessing species survival risks. The primary goal of the analysis was to evaluate how likely these breeds will survive in the future, considering currently observed demographic and environmental factors.
Analysis Outcomes
- Based on the analysis, two of the breeds, the Knabstrupper and the Jutland, are likely to survive the next 200 years. Conversely, the Frederiksborg breed, which has a smaller population size, is predicted to become extinct within the next 40 years.
- A subsequent sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine influential factors for the horse breeds’ survival. The research found that factors related to mares’ reproduction were the most impactful, with the number of actively breeding mares significantly affecting population forecasts.
Management Scenarios and Recommendations
- Different scenarios were tested, such as the closing of one of the studbooks (registration catalogs of breeds). The results indicated that closing the Knabstrupper studbook could be manageable if the number of mares actively breeding counterbalances the reduced genetic variation resulting from this strategy.
- Based on the findings, the study recommends an increase in the number of actively breeding Frederiksborg and Knabstrupper mares. Currently, only 13% of the mares in these breeds are engaged in breeding. The study proposes that this figure should be increased up to around 30%, while maintaining the 30% mark for the Frederiksborg breed.
- The researchers also noted the importance of future monitoring to continuously adjust breeding strategies based on data trends.
Utility of Vortex Software
- Finally, the study highlighted the use of Vortex for the analysis. The software required a substantial amount of data, which is typically available for domestic animals. Therefore, Vortex proves valuable for analyzing and predicting the viability of domestic animal populations, as demonstrated by the present study.
- The results of this analysis align with other studies, indicating the robustness of this approach and its usefulness in parameter sensitivity analysis for horses.
Cite This Article
APA
Thirstrup JP, Bach LA, Loeschcke V, Pertoldi C.
(2009).
Population viability analysis on domestic horse breeds (Equus caballus).
J Anim Sci, 87(11), 3525-3535.
https://doi.org/10.2527/jas.2008-1760 Publication
Researcher Affiliations
- Department of Biological Sciences, Ecology and Genetics, University of Aarhus, Bldg. 1540, DK-8000 C, Denmark.
MeSH Terms
- Animal Husbandry
- Animals
- Breeding
- Computer Simulation
- Female
- Horses / genetics
- Inbreeding
- Male
- Models, Genetic
- Population Density
Citations
This article has been cited 4 times.- May-Davis S, Dzingle D, Saber E, Blades Eckelbarger P. Characterization of the Caudal Ventral Tubercle in the Sixth Cervical Vertebra in Modern Equus ferus caballus.. Animals (Basel) 2023 Jul 22;13(14).
- Colli L, Lancioni H, Cardinali I, Olivieri A, Capodiferro MR, Pellecchia M, Rzepus M, Zamani W, Naderi S, Gandini F, Vahidi SM, Agha S, Randi E, Battaglia V, Sardina MT, Portolano B, Rezaei HR, Lymberakis P, Boyer F, Coissac E, Pompanon F, Taberlet P, Ajmone Marsan P, Achilli A. Whole mitochondrial genomes unveil the impact of domestication on goat matrilineal variability.. BMC Genomics 2015 Dec 29;16:1115.
- Davies KT, Tsagkogeorga G, Rossiter SJ. Divergent evolutionary rates in vertebrate and mammalian specific conserved non-coding elements (CNEs) in echolocating mammals.. BMC Evol Biol 2014 Dec 19;14:261.
- Achilli A, Olivieri A, Soares P, Lancioni H, Hooshiar Kashani B, Perego UA, Nergadze SG, Carossa V, Santagostino M, Capomaccio S, Felicetti M, Al-Achkar W, Penedo MC, Verini-Supplizi A, Houshmand M, Woodward SR, Semino O, Silvestrelli M, Giulotto E, Pereira L, Bandelt HJ, Torroni A. Mitochondrial genomes from modern horses reveal the major haplogroups that underwent domestication.. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2012 Feb 14;109(7):2449-54.
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