Prognosis in equine colic: a comparative study of variables used to assess individual cases.
Abstract: The present retrospective study compared objectively the prognostic value of many variables routinely used in the assessment of equine colic cases. The best prognostic variables were those which assessed the integrity of cardiovascular function. Ranked in order of decreasing merit the following variables were able to discriminate between horses which lived and those which died: systolic pressure, blood lactate concentration, oral mucous membrane capillary refill time, diastolic pressure, arterial pulse amplitude, degree of mental depression, blood urea concentration, haematocrit, heart rate, haematocrit/plasma protein ratio, oral mucous membrane colour, jugular filling rate, frequency of gut sounds, differential blood leucocyte count, blood glucose concentration and respiratory rate. Assessment of systolic pressure alone appropriately classified the outcome (survival or death) of 86 per cent (64 out of 73) cases examined. Combined assessment of systolic pressure, blood lactate concentration, blood urea concentration and haematocrit permitted accurate classification of 93 per cent (68 of 73) of the cases examined. Outcome classification formulae for these four variables, alone and in all combinations, are presented.
Publication Date: 1983-07-01 PubMed ID: 6884310DOI: 10.1111/j.2042-3306.1983.tb01768.xGoogle Scholar: Lookup
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- Comparative Study
- Journal Article
- Research Support
- Non-U.S. Gov't
Summary
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This research provides a comparative study of different factors to predict the prognosis of equine colic in horses. The most effective indicators were those related to cardiovascular function, with systolic pressure, blood lactate concentration, blood urea concentration, and haematocrit proving most accurate in predicting outcomes.
Objective of the Study
- The main purpose of this retrospective study was to objectively compare the prognostic value of various variables routinely used in diagnosing cases of equine colic.
- The researchers set out to identify which of these variables provided an accurate correlation to the outcomes of the cases, specifically distinguishing between survival and death.
Key Findings
- The best prognostic variables were those related to the integrity of cardiovascular function.
- In decreasing order of importance, the variables found to be the most indicative of outcome were: systolic pressure, blood lactate concentration, oral mucous membrane capillary refill time, diastolic pressure, arterial pulse amplitude, mental depression, blood urea concentration, haematocrit, heart rate, haematocrit/plasma protein ratio, oral mucous membrane color, jugular filling rate, frequency of gut sounds, differential blood leucocyte count, blood glucose concentration, and respiratory rate.
Effectiveness of the Variables
- By evaluating the systolic pressure alone, the survival or death outcome of 86% of the cases (64 out of 73) were accurately classified.
- When the systolic pressure, blood lactate concentration, blood urea concentration and haematocrit were assessed together, the classification accuracy increased to 93% (68 of 73).
Implication of the Results
- The study provides a clear indication of the variables that carry significant prognostic value in cases of equine colic.
- The results of this research could help to establish standardized guidelines for identifying, evaluating, and managing cases of equine colic, leading to more accurate prognosis and potentially greater survival rates.
Conclusion
- Outcome classification formulae for these four variables, alone and in all combinations, were presented, providing a practical tool for equine practitioners to improve the prognosis accuracy in equine colic cases.
Cite This Article
APA
Parry BW, Anderson GA, Gay CC.
(1983).
Prognosis in equine colic: a comparative study of variables used to assess individual cases.
Equine Vet J, 15(3), 211-215.
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2042-3306.1983.tb01768.x Publication
Researcher Affiliations
MeSH Terms
- Animals
- Blood Chemical Analysis / veterinary
- Blood Glucose / analysis
- Colic / diagnosis
- Colic / mortality
- Colic / veterinary
- Hematologic Tests / veterinary
- Hemodynamics
- Horse Diseases / diagnosis
- Horse Diseases / mortality
- Horses
- Lactates / blood
- Lactic Acid
- Prognosis
- Retrospective Studies
- Statistics as Topic
Citations
This article has been cited 12 times.- Cummings CO, Krucik DDR, Price E. Clinical predictive models in equine medicine: A systematic review. Equine Vet J 2023 Jul;55(4):573-583.
- Kaufman JM, Nekouei O, Doyle AJ, Biermann NM. Clinical findings, diagnoses, and outcomes of horses presented for colic to a referral hospital in Atlantic Canada (2000-2015). Can Vet J 2020 Mar;61(3):281-288.
- Roy MF, Kwong GP, Lambert J, Massie S, Lockhart S. Prognostic Value and Development of a Scoring System in Horses With Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome. J Vet Intern Med 2017 Mar;31(2):582-592.
- Mizen K, Woodman J, Boysen SR, Wagg C, Greco-Otto P, Léguillette R, Roy MF. Effect of Dexamethasone on Resting Blood Lactate Concentrations in Horses. J Vet Intern Med 2017 Jan;31(1):164-169.
- Jennings K, Curtis L, Burford J, Freeman S. Prospective survey of veterinary practitioners' primary assessment of equine colic: clinical features, diagnoses, and treatment of 120 cases of large colon impaction. BMC Vet Res 2014;10 Suppl 1(Suppl 1):S2.
- Edner AH, Essén-Gustavsson B, Nyman GC. Metabolism during anaesthesia and recovery in colic and healthy horses: a microdialysis study. Acta Vet Scand 2009 Mar 10;51(1):10.
- Edner AH, Nyman GC, Essén-Gustavsson B. Metabolism before, during and after anaesthesia in colic and healthy horses. Acta Vet Scand 2007 Nov 15;49(1):34.
- Staempfli HR, Townsend HG, Prescott JF. Prognostic features and clinical presentation of acute idiopathic enterocolitis in horses. Can Vet J 1991 Apr;32(4):232-7.
- Naylor JM, Bailey JV. A retrospective study of 51 cases of abdominal problems in the calf: etiology, diagnosis and prognosis. Can Vet J 1987 Oct;28(10):657-62.
- Sandholm M, Vidovic A, Puotunen-Reinert A, Sankari S, Nyholm K, Rita H. D-dimer improves the prognostic value of combined clinical and laboratory data in equine gastrointestinal colic. Acta Vet Scand 1995;36(2):255-72.
- Reeves MJ, Curtis CR, Salman MD, Hilbert BJ. Prognosis in equine colic patients using multivariable analysis. Can J Vet Res 1989 Jan;53(1):87-94.
- Pascoe PJ, Ducharme NG, Ducharme GR, Lumsden JH. A computer-derived protocol using recursive partitioning to aid in estimating prognosis of horses with abdominal pain in referral hospitals. Can J Vet Res 1990 Jun;54(3):373-8.
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