Short-term effect of weather variables on West Nile virus infection in Equids in Spain: A space-time stratified case-crossover design.
Abstract: West Nile virus (WNV) is an arthropod-borne virus primarily transmitted by Culex mosquitoes, among birds, but occasionally infecting humans and equids. Understanding environmental factors on the disease occurrence is crucial for planning effective prevention and control strategies. Our study estimates the short-term effects of ambient temperature, relative humidity and precipitation on weekly cases of WNV in equids in Spain, using a space-time stratified case-crossover design. Because WNV transmission occurs sometime after the weather conditions become favorable for the vector, we aimed to estimate the lagged effect of the three weather variables on the incidence of WNV cases in equids. Therefore, we applied a conditional Poisson regression within the framework of lag-distributed models. These models are particularly effective for examining the delayed effects of exposures. The incidence of WNV confirmed cases was associated with temperatures registered within the prior two and eight weeks. The highest incidence was observed at lag four, where the incident rate ratio (IRR) increased to 11.96 (95 % CI: 9.84-50.40) with mean temperature at 33 °C, likewise relative humidity effect peaked also at lag four (IRR=3.99; 95 % CI: 1.43-11.16) at 93 % of relative humidity. On the other hand, the confidence intervals for precipitation were very wide, making it difficult to discern a clear change in the risk of WNV infection associated with total precipitation. This study sheds light on the complex relationships between meteorological variables and the incidence of WNV cases. Considering the zoonotic nature of the disease, these results could provide valuable information for surveillance and early warning of the disease.
Copyright © 2025 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Publication Date: 2025-03-25 PubMed ID: 40147552DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2025.107602Google Scholar: Lookup
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- Journal Article
Cite This Article
APA
Fonseca-Rodríguez O, Pailler-García L, Urban A, Cáceres G, Napp S, Busquets N.
(2025).
Short-term effect of weather variables on West Nile virus infection in Equids in Spain: A space-time stratified case-crossover design.
Acta Trop, 264, 107602.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actatropica.2025.107602 Publication
Researcher Affiliations
- IRTA, Programa de Sanitat Animal, Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal (CReSA), Campus de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Catalonia, Spain; Unitat mixta d'Investigació IRTA-UAB en Sanitat Animal, Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal (CReSA), Campus de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Catalonia, Spain. Electronic address: osvaldo.fonseca@irta.cat.
- IRTA, Programa de Sanitat Animal, Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal (CReSA), Campus de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Catalonia, Spain; Unitat mixta d'Investigació IRTA-UAB en Sanitat Animal, Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal (CReSA), Campus de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Catalonia, Spain.
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Czech Republic; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic.
- Epidemiology Department, Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Madrid, Spain.
- IRTA, Programa de Sanitat Animal, Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal (CReSA), Campus de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Catalonia, Spain; Unitat mixta d'Investigació IRTA-UAB en Sanitat Animal, Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal (CReSA), Campus de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Catalonia, Spain.
- IRTA, Programa de Sanitat Animal, Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal (CReSA), Campus de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Catalonia, Spain; Unitat mixta d'Investigació IRTA-UAB en Sanitat Animal, Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal (CReSA), Campus de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Catalonia, Spain.
MeSH Terms
- Animals
- Spain / epidemiology
- West Nile Fever / epidemiology
- West Nile Fever / veterinary
- Weather
- Horses
- Incidence
- West Nile virus / isolation & purification
- Temperature
- Cross-Over Studies
- Horse Diseases / epidemiology
- Horse Diseases / virology
- Humidity
- Equidae / virology
Conflict of Interest Statement
Declaration of competing interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: Nuria Busquets, Sebastian Napp reports financial support was provided by Catalan Management Agency of University and Research grants (AGAUR 2023 CLIMA 00,103 project). Nuria Busquets, Sebastian Napp reports financial support was provided by Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (MCINN PID2020–116768RR-C22 project). Osvaldo Fonseca Rodriguez reports financial support was provided by Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (RYC2022–037,029-I). If there are other authors, they declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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