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Home / Equine Research Bank / Transbound Emerg Dis / Spatial Modeling of Equine Herpesviruses 1 (EHVs-1) Risks in...
Transboundary and emerging diseases2025; 2025; 5536099; doi: 10.1155/tbed/5536099

Spatial Modeling of Equine Herpesviruses 1 (EHVs-1) Risks in Kazakhstan Using 2017-2024 Surveillance Data.

Abstract: Equine herpesvirus 1 (EHV-1) is one of the most dangerous viral diseases affecting ungulates, and is characterized by a wide range of clinical manifestations in horses, including rhinopneumonia, abortion, neonatal death, and myeloencephalopathy. It is well known for causing mass abortions in mares and respiratory diseases in young animals. Once introduced into a horse breeding farm of any type, EHV-1 tends to establish as a persistent infection. The disease is reported on nearly all continents and causes substantial annual economic losses to horse breeding operations. In Kazakhstan, 34 EHV-1 outbreaks were recorded between 2017 and 2024. The objective of our study was to identify potential risk factors associated with the presence of EHV-1 within the study area. We employed a forest-based classification and regression approach to explore a set of sociodemographic, environmental, and transportation-related factors associated with the presence or absence of EHV-1 at the level of administrative regions. A standard set of explanatory variables was supplemented with horse population density, derived from demographic data of horse-breeding farms obtained through a nationwide survey. Modeling results indicated that the most significant factor influencing EHV-1 presence was the average wind speed in January, followed by road density, the number of horse farms, and the number of livestock-related facilities targeted for surveillance. Horse population density was found to be among the least significant variable in the model. The resulting risk map highlights areas with a higher suitability for EHV-1 emergence, primarily located in regions with moderate-to-high horse population densities and characterized by steppe- and grassland-type landscapes, which are predominantly found in the northern, central, and south-western parts of Kazakhstan. These findings can serve as a foundation for further investigation into the spatial patterns of EHV-1 in the country and for enhancing veterinary surveillance and control measures.
Copyright © 2025 Yersyn Mukhanbetkaliyev et al. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Publication Date: 2025-08-21 PubMed ID: 40894192PubMed Central: PMC12393953DOI: 10.1155/tbed/5536099Google Scholar: Lookup
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  • Journal Article

Summary

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Overview

  • This study analyzed spatial and environmental factors linked to the risk of Equine Herpesvirus 1 (EHV-1) outbreaks in Kazakhstan from 2017 to 2024.
  • The researchers used advanced modeling techniques to identify key risk factors and produced a risk map to guide future disease surveillance and control efforts.

Background

  • EHV-1 is a highly contagious viral disease affecting horses and other ungulates, leading to serious health issues such as rhinopneumonia, abortions, neonatal death, and neurological problems (myeloencephalopathy).
  • The virus can establish persistent infections within horse farms, causing repeated disease outbreaks and significant economic losses worldwide.
  • In Kazakhstan, 34 outbreaks were recorded over a 7-year period (2017-2024), highlighting the need to understand contributing factors to improve disease management.

Study Objectives

  • Identify potential risk factors associated with the presence or absence of EHV-1 in different administrative regions of Kazakhstan.
  • Use spatial modeling to produce a risk map indicating regions more prone to EHV-1 outbreaks.
  • Support veterinary authorities in targeting surveillance and implementing control measures effectively.

Methodology

  • Data Collection:
    • Surveillance data on EHV-1 outbreaks across Kazakhstan from 2017 to 2024.
    • Data on sociodemographic, environmental, and transportation factors at administrative region level.
    • Horse population density derived from a nationwide survey of horse-breeding farms.
  • Modeling Approach:
    • Applied a forest-based classification and regression tree (CART) method.
    • Explored the influence of various explanatory variables on the presence or absence of EHV-1.
    • Variables included average wind speed, road density, number of horse farms, number of livestock-related surveillance facilities, and horse population density.

Key Findings

  • Primary Risk Factor: Average wind speed in January was the most influential variable predicting the presence of EHV-1, suggesting that climatic conditions affecting virus spread are critical.
  • Additional Important Factors:
    • Road density – higher road density may facilitate virus transmission through movement related to transportation.
    • Number of horse farms – more farms may increase the likelihood of virus presence.
    • Number of livestock-related surveillance facilities – reflecting monitoring intensity and possibly correlating with outbreak reporting.
  • Horse Population Density: Surprisingly, found to be among the least significant variables, indicating that population size alone does not strongly predict EHV-1 presence.

Risk Mapping and Spatial Patterns

  • The generated risk map identified areas with higher suitability for EHV-1 emergence.
  • These higher-risk areas are primarily:
    • Regions with moderate to high horse population densities.
    • Steppe- and grassland-type landscapes.
    • Located predominantly in northern, central, and southwest Kazakhstan.
  • The map provides a visual tool for focusing veterinary surveillance and informs resource allocation for disease control.

Implications and Future Directions

  • The study underscores the importance of environmental and infrastructural factors (e.g., wind speed, road density) over horse population density in predicting EHV-1 risk.
  • Findings provide a scientific basis to enhance national surveillance programs by prioritizing higher-risk geographic regions.
  • Future research could investigate the mechanistic links between climatic factors and viral spread, and evaluate intervention strategies in identified risk zones.
  • This spatial modeling framework could be adapted for monitoring other infectious diseases affecting livestock in Kazakhstan and similar settings.

Cite This Article

APA
Mukhanbetkaliyev Y, Yessembekova G, Mukhanbetkaliyeva A, Akmambayeva B, Kadyrov A, Uskenov R, Bostanova S, Ashirbek A, Korennoy F, Abdrakhmanov S. (2025). Spatial Modeling of Equine Herpesviruses 1 (EHVs-1) Risks in Kazakhstan Using 2017-2024 Surveillance Data. Transbound Emerg Dis, 2025, 5536099. https://doi.org/10.1155/tbed/5536099

Publication

Transboundary and emerging diseases
ISSN: 1865-1682
NlmUniqueID: 101319538
Country: Germany
Language: English
Volume: 2025
Pages: 5536099
PII: 5536099

Researcher Affiliations

Mukhanbetkaliyev, Yersyn
  • S. Seifullin Kazakh Agro Technical Research University, Astana, Kazakhstan.
Yessembekova, Gulzhan
  • S. Seifullin Kazakh Agro Technical Research University, Astana, Kazakhstan.
Mukhanbetkaliyeva, Aizada
  • S. Seifullin Kazakh Agro Technical Research University, Astana, Kazakhstan.
Akmambayeva, Botakoz
  • S. Seifullin Kazakh Agro Technical Research University, Astana, Kazakhstan.
Kadyrov, Ablaikhan
  • S. Seifullin Kazakh Agro Technical Research University, Astana, Kazakhstan.
Uskenov, Rashit
  • S. Seifullin Kazakh Agro Technical Research University, Astana, Kazakhstan.
Bostanova, Saule
  • S. Seifullin Kazakh Agro Technical Research University, Astana, Kazakhstan.
Ashirbek, Alibek
  • S. Seifullin Kazakh Agro Technical Research University, Astana, Kazakhstan.
Korennoy, Fedor
  • Federal Center for Animal Health (FGBI ARRIAH), Vladimir, Russia.
  • Federal Research Center for Virology and Microbiology-Branch in Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia.
Abdrakhmanov, Sarsenbay
  • S. Seifullin Kazakh Agro Technical Research University, Astana, Kazakhstan.

MeSH Terms

  • Animals
  • Horses
  • Herpesvirus 1, Equid / isolation & purification
  • Horse Diseases / epidemiology
  • Horse Diseases / virology
  • Herpesviridae Infections / veterinary
  • Herpesviridae Infections / epidemiology
  • Herpesviridae Infections / virology
  • Kazakhstan / epidemiology
  • Risk Factors
  • Disease Outbreaks / veterinary
  • Spatial Analysis
  • Female

Conflict of Interest Statement

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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