A hypothesis: the conjunction of soldiers, gas, pigs, ducks, geese and horses in northern France during the Great War provided the conditions for the emergence of the “Spanish” influenza pandemic of 1918-1919.

The research article hypothesizes that overcrowded conditions, a mixture of humans and animals, and use of various gases during World War I potentially led to the emergence of the “Spanish” influenza pandemic of 1918-1919, which originated from a British base camp in Northern France.

Research Background

• The article is based on the historical event – the Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918-1919 which resulted in the death of over 50 million people globally in a period of 18 months.
• The study aims to investigate the origin of this influenza, which is crucial given that modern influenza surveillance primarily centers on Southeast Asia due to subsequent pandemic viruses originated from this region in 1957 and 1968.

Hypothesis and Evidence

• The crux of the study is the hypothesis that the British base camp at Etaples in Northern France was a likely origin of the pandemic due to various factors perpetuating the disease’s emergence and spread.
• This hypothesis arises from examining historical outbreaks of a similar disease with quick onset and dissemination qualities, along with high mortality rates among young soldiers at Etaples in 1917.
• Agreement among pathologists working at Etaples and Aldershot barracks underscored that these early outbreaks resembled the 1918 influenza pandemic.

Conditions at Etaples Camp

• The conditions at the Etaples camp were conducive to the emergence of pandemic influenza. Overcrowding was a foremost concern, with the daily movement of 100,000 soldiers in close quarters.
• This situation was exacerbated by the presence of live pigs and nearby live poultry markets (geese, ducks, and chickens), creating a cocktail of potential hosts for influenza.
• The presence of horses and the usage of 24 types of gases —some with mutation-causing properties— produced even greater risks for viral mutation and spread. These gases were used in huge quantities of up to 100 tons to contaminate soldiers and the environment.

Trigger of the Pandemic

• The study posits that the motive force for the pandemic was the demobilization of millions of soldiers, who returned to their homes worldwide in autumn 1918, thereby spreading the virus across different geographies.