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Vaccine2004; 23(7); 940-945; doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2004.06.035

A hypothesis: the conjunction of soldiers, gas, pigs, ducks, geese and horses in northern France during the Great War provided the conditions for the emergence of the “Spanish” influenza pandemic of 1918-1919.

Abstract: The Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918-1919 was a cataclysmic outbreak of infection wherein over 50 million people died worldwide within 18 months. The question of the origin is important because most influenza surveillance at present is focussed on S.E. Asia. Two later pandemic viruses in 1957 and 1968 arose in this region. However we present evidence that early outbreaks of a new disease with rapid onset and spreadability, high mortality in young soldiers in the British base camp at Etaples in Northern France in the winter of 1917 is, at least to date, the most likely focus of origin of the pandemic. Pathologists working at Etaples and Aldershot barracks later agreed that these early outbreaks in army camps were the same disease as the infection wave of influenza in 1918. The Etaples camp had the necessary mixture of factors for emergence of pandemic influenza including overcrowding (with 100,000 soldiers daily changing), live pigs, and nearby live geese, duck and chicken markets, horses and an additional factor 24 gases (some of them mutagenic) used in large 100 ton quantities to contaminate soldiers and the landscape. The final trigger for the ensuing pandemic was the return of millions of soldiers to their homelands around the entire world in the autumn of 1918.
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Publication Date: 2004-12-18 PubMed ID: 15603896DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2004.06.035Google Scholar: Lookup
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  • Historical Article
  • Journal Article
  • Research Support
  • Non-U.S. Gov't

Summary

This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.

The research article hypothesizes that overcrowded conditions, a mixture of humans and animals, and use of various gases during World War I potentially led to the emergence of the “Spanish” influenza pandemic of 1918-1919, which originated from a British base camp in Northern France.

Research Background

  • The article is based on the historical event – the Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918-1919 which resulted in the death of over 50 million people globally in a period of 18 months.
  • The study aims to investigate the origin of this influenza, which is crucial given that modern influenza surveillance primarily centers on Southeast Asia due to subsequent pandemic viruses originated from this region in 1957 and 1968.

Hypothesis and Evidence

  • The crux of the study is the hypothesis that the British base camp at Etaples in Northern France was a likely origin of the pandemic due to various factors perpetuating the disease’s emergence and spread.
  • This hypothesis arises from examining historical outbreaks of a similar disease with quick onset and dissemination qualities, along with high mortality rates among young soldiers at Etaples in 1917.
  • Agreement among pathologists working at Etaples and Aldershot barracks underscored that these early outbreaks resembled the 1918 influenza pandemic.

Conditions at Etaples Camp

  • The conditions at the Etaples camp were conducive to the emergence of pandemic influenza. Overcrowding was a foremost concern, with the daily movement of 100,000 soldiers in close quarters.
  • This situation was exacerbated by the presence of live pigs and nearby live poultry markets (geese, ducks, and chickens), creating a cocktail of potential hosts for influenza.
  • The presence of horses and the usage of 24 types of gases —some with mutation-causing properties— produced even greater risks for viral mutation and spread. These gases were used in huge quantities of up to 100 tons to contaminate soldiers and the environment.

Trigger of the Pandemic

  • The study posits that the motive force for the pandemic was the demobilization of millions of soldiers, who returned to their homes worldwide in autumn 1918, thereby spreading the virus across different geographies.

Cite This Article

APA
Oxford JS, Lambkin R, Sefton A, Daniels R, Elliot A, Brown R, Gill D. (2004). A hypothesis: the conjunction of soldiers, gas, pigs, ducks, geese and horses in northern France during the Great War provided the conditions for the emergence of the “Spanish” influenza pandemic of 1918-1919. Vaccine, 23(7), 940-945. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2004.06.035

Publication

Vaccine
ISSN: 0264-410X
NlmUniqueID: 8406899
Country: Netherlands
Language: English
Volume: 23
Issue: 7
Pages: 940-945

Researcher Affiliations

Oxford, J S
  • St. Bartholomew's and The Royal London, and Retroscreen Virology Ltd., Queen Mary's School of Medicine and Dentistry, London E1 4NS, UK. p.meeking@retroscreen.com
Lambkin, R
    Sefton, A
      Daniels, R
        Elliot, A
          Brown, R
            Gill, D

              MeSH Terms

              • Animals
              • Communicable Diseases, Emerging / history
              • Disease Outbreaks
              • Ducks
              • France
              • Geese
              • History, 20th Century
              • Horses
              • Humans
              • Influenza A virus / pathogenicity
              • Influenza, Human / history
              • Military Personnel / history
              • Swine
              • World War I

              Grant Funding

              • MC_U117531986 / Medical Research Council

              Citations

              This article has been cited 25 times.
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