A threshold model to determine the association between race rides and fall risk for early career (apprentice) jockeys.

Objective Summary

• This study analyzed the relationship between the number of race rides and fall risk among apprentice jockeys, to identify factors linked to success and safety in early career race riding.
• The research aimed to determine if there is an optimal number of races that apprentice jockeys should ride to minimize fall risk while progressing effectively in their careers.

Study Background and Purpose

• The research focused on Thoroughbred flat racing in New Zealand over a 19-year period, including data from both apprentice (early career) and professional jockeys.
• The objective was twofold:
  • Identify characteristics associated with success among apprentice jockeys.
  • Determine an optimal number of rides for apprentices that balances career progression and fall risk.

Methods

• Study Design: Retrospective cohort study analyzing retrospective race data.
• Data Sources:
  • 807 jockeys (apprentice and professional) with a total of 524,551 race starts over 19 years.
• Outcomes Measured:
  • Fall incidence rates (number of falls per race starts).
  • Success incidence rates (wins per 1,000 race starts).
  • Time and number of races spent at different apprentice levels.
• Analytical Techniques:
  • Survival analysis was used to compare career progression of jockeys who experienced falls vs. those who did not.
  • Modeling of individual seasonal fall incidence rates was performed.

Key Findings

• Fall Risk:
  • Apprentices had the highest fall incidence rates during their first year of racing, with a median rate of 2.4 falls per 1,000 rides (interquartile range [IQR] 1.7-3.2), compared to 1.1 (IQR 1.0-1.2) for more experienced jockeys.
  • This indicates that early-stage jockeys face a significantly higher risk of falling.
• Success Rates:
  • Apprentice jockeys had lower win rates (71 wins per 1,000 race starts, IQR 67-75) in comparison to professional jockeys (97 wins per 1,000, IQR 96-98).
  • This shows a lower level of success among apprentices, as expected given their relative inexperience.
• Career Progression:
  • Jockeys who experienced falls during their apprenticeship needed to complete more rides to progress to professional status than those who did not fall.
  • This suggests falls may delay career advancement.
• Relationship Between Number of Rides and Fall Rate:
  • An inverse power law relationship was found between fall incidence rate and the number of rides per season.
  • The inflection point was identified at 33 rides per season; jockeys who rode fewer than this fell more often.
  • Approximately 48% of jockeys rode fewer than 33 rides per season, highlighting that almost half the cohort had a higher fall risk associated with lower ride numbers.

Conclusions and Implications

• There are more apprentice jockeys riding at high fall risk than the number of race opportunities requires.
• Risks and slower career progression are linked to low ride counts, particularly below the 33 rides per season threshold.
• Recommendations include:
  • Investing more in the fitness, education, and selection of a smaller, more dedicated group of apprentices.
  • Focusing resources on fewer apprentices may reduce early career falls and injuries.
  • This could optimize safety and success in the development of jockeys, benefiting both individuals and the racing industry.
• Further research is needed to test and implement targeted interventions informed by these findings.