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Home / Equine Research Bank / Animals (Basel) / Analysis of Failure to Finish a Race in a Cohort of Thorough...
Animals : an open access journal from MDPI2016; 6(6); doi: 10.3390/ani6060036

Analysis of Failure to Finish a Race in a Cohort of Thoroughbred Racehorses in New Zealand.

Abstract: The objective was to describe the incidence of failure to finish a race in flat-racing Thoroughbreds in New Zealand as these are summary indicators of falls, injuries and poor performance. Retrospective data on six complete flat racing seasons (n = 188,615 race starts) of all Thoroughbred flat race starts from 1 August 2005 to 31 July 2011 were obtained. The incidence of failure to finish events and binomial exact 95% confidence intervals were calculated per 1000 horse starts. The association between horse-, rider- and race-level variables with the outcomes failure to finish, pulled-up/fell and lost rider were examined with a mixed effects Poisson regression model. A total of 544 horses failed to finish in 188,615 race starts with an overall incidence of 2.88 per 1000 horse starts (95% CI 2.64-3.12). The incidence of failure to finish horses across each race year showed little variability. In the univariable analysis race distance, larger field size, season, and ratings bands showed association with failing to finish a race. The overall failure to finish outcome was associated with season, race distance and ratings bands (horse experience and success ranking criteria). In the multivariable analysis, race distance and ratings bands were associated with horses that pulled-up/fell; season, apprentice allowances and ratings bands were associated with the outcome lost rider. The failure to finish rate was lower than international figures for race day catastrophic injury. Racing and environmental variables were associated with failure to finish a race highlighting the multifactorial nature of race-day events. Further investigation of risk factors for failure to finish is required to better understand the reasons for a low failure to finish rate in Thoroughbred flat races in New Zealand.
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Publication Date: 2016-05-25 PubMed ID: 27231944PubMed Central: PMC4929416DOI: 10.3390/ani6060036Google Scholar: Lookup
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  • Journal Article

Summary

This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.

This research study analyzes why Thoroughbred racehorses in New Zealand don’t finish races, with the results suggesting it’s due to a combination of environmental and racing variables including season, race distance, horse experience and ranking. This understanding could help improve racing conditions and reduce non-finishing occurrences.

Introduction

This study aimed to provide an insight into the reasons that lead to Thoroughbred horses failing to finish their races in New Zealand. Failures to finish a race can be due to falls, injuries, and poor performance. The research focuses on six full flat racing seasons from August 1, 2005, to July 31, 2011, encompassing 188,615 race starts.

Methodology

  • The researchers used retrospective data from Thoroughbred flat race starts within the designated study period.
  • The incidence of failure to finish events was calculated per 1000 horse starts. The 95% confidence intervals were calculated using a binomial exact method.
  • To determine the association between horse-, rider-, and race-level variables with the failure to finish outcomes, a mixed-effects Poisson regression model was used.

Results

  • A total of 544 horses failed to finish the race from a pool of 188,615 race starts.
  • The overall incidence of failure to finish was 2.88 per 1000 horse starts. The incidence across each race year showed little change.
  • Univariable analysis results indicated an association between race distance, larger field size, season and ratings bands (criteria related to horse experience and success ranking), with failure to finish a race.
  • For pulled-up/fell outcomes, race distance and ratings bands were identified as significant determinants. Similarly, the season, apprentice allowances, and ratings bands impacted the lost rider outcome.

Conclusion

The study concludes that the failure to finish a race is influenced by various factors including the season, race distance, horse experience, and success ranking. The failure to finish rate was discovered to be lower than international race day catastrophic injury rates. As the cause for this is multifactorial, further studies need to be done to understand and improve race finish rates amongst Thoroughbred horses in New Zealand.

Cite This Article

APA
Tanner J, Rogers C, Bolwell C, Cogger N, Gee E, Mcllwraith W. (2016). Analysis of Failure to Finish a Race in a Cohort of Thoroughbred Racehorses in New Zealand. Animals (Basel), 6(6). https://doi.org/10.3390/ani6060036

Publication

Animals : an open access journal from MDPI
ISSN: 2076-2615
NlmUniqueID: 101635614
Country: Switzerland
Language: English
Volume: 6
Issue: 6

Researcher Affiliations

Tanner, Jasmine
  • Equine Research Centre, Institute of Veterinary Animal and Biomedical Sciences, Massey University, Palmerston North 4474, New Zealand. jaztanner@gmail.com.
Rogers, Chris
  • Equine Research Centre, Institute of Veterinary Animal and Biomedical Sciences, Massey University, Palmerston North 4474, New Zealand. c.w.rogers@massey.ac.nz.
Bolwell, Charlotte
  • Equine Research Centre, Institute of Veterinary Animal and Biomedical Sciences, Massey University, Palmerston North 4474, New Zealand. c.bolwell@massey.ac.nz.
Cogger, Naomi
  • Epicentre, Institute of Veterinary Animal and Biomedical Sciences, Massey University, Palmerston North 4442, New Zealand. n.cogger@massey.ac.nz.
Gee, Erica
  • Equine Research Centre, Institute of Veterinary Animal and Biomedical Sciences, Massey University, Palmerston North 4474, New Zealand. e.k.gee@massey.ac.nz.
Mcllwraith, Wayne
  • Equine Orthopaedic Research Center, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA. Wayne.Mcilwraith@ColoState.EDU.

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