California state Mosquito-Borne Virus Surveillance and Response Plan: a retrospective evaluation using conditional simulations.
Abstract: The California Mosquito-Borne Virus Surveillance and Response Plan recently was developed to provide a semi-quantitative means for assessing risk for western equine encephalomyelitis (WEE) or St. Louis encephalitis (SLE) viruses and to provide intervention guidelines for mosquito control and public health agencies during periods of heightened risk for human infection. West Nile virus recently has arrived in California, and the response plan also will provide a baseline for assessing the risk for human and equine infection with this virus. In the response plan, overall risk is calculated by averaging risk due to 1) environmental conditions, 2) adult mosquito vector abundance, 3) vector infection rates, 4) sentinel chicken seroconversion rates, 5) equine cases (for WEE), 6) human cases, and 7) the proximity of virus activity to populated areas. Overall risk is categorized into three levels: normal season, emergency planning, or epidemic conditions. We evaluated this response plan using historical data from years with no, enzootic, and epidemic activity of WEE and SLE in several areas of California to determine whether calculated risk levels approximated actual conditions. Multiple methods of risk calculation were considered for both viruses. Assessed risk based on cumulative temperature, rainfall, and runoff levels over the entire season provided more or equally accurate assessments than biweekly assessments based solely on the previous half-month. For WEE, during years with enzootic activity or early-season periods of years with WEE epidemic activity, combining horse and human cases as a single risk factor improved the model's ability to forecast pending WEE activity, but separating the two factors allowed a better indication of WEE activity during epidemics and periods with no activity. For SLE, assignment of higher risk to drier conditions as measured by rainfall and runoff yielded the most accurate representation of actual virus activity during all recent study periods.
Publication Date: 2003-06-19 PubMed ID: 12812335DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.2003.68.508Google Scholar: Lookup
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- Evaluation Study
- Journal Article
- Research Support
- U.S. Gov't
- Non-P.H.S.
- Arboviruses
- Diagnosis
- Disease control
- Disease Diagnosis
- Disease Etiology
- Disease Management
- Disease Outbreaks
- Disease Prevalence
- Disease Surveillance
- Encephalomyelitis
- Environmental Stressors
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Disease
- Mosquito-borne Diseases
- Predictive Model
- Public Health
- Retrospective Study
- Risk Factors
- Vector-borne disease
- West Nile Virus
- Western Equine Encephalitis
Summary
This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.
The research paper is a retrospective evaluation of the efficacy of the California Mosquito-Borne Virus Surveillance and Response Plan, specifically for assessing the risk levels of West Nile virus, western equine encephalomyelitis, and St. Louis encephalitis, and providing corresponding intervention guidelines.
Objective of the Research
- The primary objective of the research was to evaluate the effectiveness of the California Mosquito-Borne Virus Surveillance and Response Plan. This plan was formulated to semi-quantitatively evaluate the risk of viruses like western equine encephalomyelitis, St. Louis encephalitis, and recently the West Nile virus.
- The plan also aims to guide mosquito control and public health agencies in implementing necessary interventions during periods of increased risk for human infection.
The Response Plan
- According to the plan, the overall risk is computed by taking an average of several factors – environmental conditions, abundance of adult mosquito vectors, vector infection rates, sentinel chicken seroconversion rates, equine cases (for WEE), human cases, and the proximity of virus activity to populated areas.
- The calculated risk is categorized into three levels – normal season, emergency planning, or epidemic conditions.
Evaluation of the Response Plan
- The authors of the research have critically analyzed this response plan using historical data from years with no activities, enzootic activities, and epidemic activities of WEE and SLE in several areas across California. They aimed to discern if the computed risk levels aid in approximating actual conditions.
- The researchers experimented with several methods of risk computation for both viruses.
Findings of the Study
- The study found that calculating the risk based on cumulative temperature, rainfall, and runoff levels throughout the entire season resulted in a more accurate assessment than biweekly assessments based solely on half-monthly data.
- For western equine encephalomyelitis, combining equine and human cases as a single risk factor during years with enzootic activity or early-season periods of epidemic activity helped improve the model’s proficiency in anticipating the future virus activity. However, separating these two factors gave a better understanding of the virus activity during epidemics and periods with no activity.
- For St. Louis encephalitis, a higher risk was associated with drier conditions, as measured by rainfall and runoff levels, generating the most accurate representation of the actual virus activity during the recent study periods.
Cite This Article
APA
Barker CM, Reisen WK, Kramer VL.
(2003).
California state Mosquito-Borne Virus Surveillance and Response Plan: a retrospective evaluation using conditional simulations.
Am J Trop Med Hyg, 68(5), 508-518.
https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.2003.68.508 Publication
Researcher Affiliations
- Center for Vector-Borne Diseases, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, California, USA. cmbarker@ucdavis.edu
MeSH Terms
- Animals
- California / epidemiology
- Chickens
- Culicidae / physiology
- Culicidae / virology
- Disease Outbreaks / statistics & numerical data
- Encephalitis, St. Louis / epidemiology
- Encephalitis, St. Louis / prevention & control
- Encephalitis, St. Louis / transmission
- Encephalomyelitis, Western Equine / epidemiology
- Encephalomyelitis, Western Equine / prevention & control
- Encephalomyelitis, Western Equine / transmission
- Horse Diseases / epidemiology
- Horses
- Humans
- Insect Vectors / physiology
- Insect Vectors / virology
- Models, Biological
- Mosquito Control
- Population Density
- Population Surveillance / methods
- Poultry Diseases / epidemiology
- Rain
- Retrospective Studies
- Risk Assessment / methods
- Risk Factors
- Seasons
- Temperature
Citations
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