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Topic:Predictive Model
Predictive models in equine research involve the use of statistical and computational techniques to forecast outcomes related to horse health, performance, and behavior. These models integrate various data inputs, such as genetic information, physiological parameters, and environmental factors, to predict future events or conditions. Applications of predictive models in equine science include anticipating disease outbreaks, assessing performance potential, and optimizing breeding strategies. By analyzing historical and real-time data, these models can provide insights that assist in decision-making processes. This page compiles peer-reviewed research studies and scholarly articles that explore the development, validation, and application of predictive models in the context of equine science.
Intraoperative Mechanical Power and Post-Anesthetic Respiratory Outcomes in Horses: A Retrospective Cohort Study. Mechanical power (MP) represents the ventilatory-delivered energy to the respiratory system, integrating multiple variables into a single parameter. It has been linked to ventilator-induced lung injury and post-ventilation complications in human medicine, while clinical relevance in equine anesthesia remains insufficient. Objective: To evaluate the association between intraoperative mechanical power and postoperative respiratory outcomes in horses undergoing inhalant anesthesia. Methods: This retrospective cohort study analyzed anesthesia records from 843 adult horses anesthetized between 2023...
Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic Analysis of Quinidine-Induced Dominant Frequency Reduction in Thoroughbred Horses With Atrial Fibrillation. Quinidine has long been used for the pharmacological treatment of atrial fibrillation (AF) in horses; however, the plasma concentration required for conversion to sinus rhythm remains unclear. Dominant frequency (DF), derived from surface electrocardiograms, reflects atrial activation rate during AF. This study aimed to quantify the relationship between plasma quinidine concentration and DF using a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) approach. Ten Thoroughbred horses with naturally occurring AF received quinidine sulfate via a nasogastric tube. Plasma quinidine concentrations and DF values...
Implications of dominance deviations for reproductive and morphological traits in the genetic management of the Pura Raza Española horse. Dominance is a non-additive genetic effect involving allele interaction at the same locus. In animal breeding, it has often been ignored due to its complexity and the low accuracy of pedigree-based estimates. This study analysed dominance variance components for reproductive traits [age at first foaling (AFF), reproductive efficiency (RE), interval between first and second foaling (I12)] and morphological traits [scapulo-ischial length (SIL), dorsal sternal diameter (DSD), knee circumference (KC)] in Pura Raza Española (PRE) mares. The aim was to assess the magnitude of dominance effects acro...
Advanced 3D Horse Reconstruction: Integrating Image-to-3D Modelling and Non-Rigid Registration for On-Barn Body Measurements. Precision livestock farming (PLF) relies on high-precision three-dimensional (3D) horse reconstruction and automatic body measurement to support refined breeding management and health surveillance. However, data collection is restricted by building environment noise and hardware layout constraints; complex equine body shapes and large individual variations induce local geometric distortions in reconstructed models, limiting field deployment. Drawing on generative 3D reconstruction, this study develops the first image-to-3D pipeline that leverages three consumer depth cameras to reconstruct hig...
Species-specific effects of spinal stiffness on gait and actuation-cost proxy in simulated cheetah and horse galloping. Cursorial quadrupeds employ distinct mechanical strategies for high-speed locomotion, with felids relying more strongly on axial motion than equids. The biomechanical role of spinal stiffness, however, is difficult to isolate experimentally because it is coupled to limb mechanics, morphology, and coordination. Here, we used comparative three-dimensional trajectory optimization to test how spinal stiffness influences gait mechanics and actuation-demand proxies in simulated cheetah-like and horse-like galloping. Homologous cheetah and horse models were evaluated across spinal-stiffness values, p...
Risk factors for horse falls in British jump racing (2010-2023). Horse falls are an important safety and welfare concern in jump racing, as they are associated with an increased risk of equine fatality and injury, as well as jockey injury. Objective: To identify risk factors for horse falls in British jump racing. Methods: Retrospective cohort. Methods: All jump race starts made on British racecourses between January 2010 and April 2023 were considered. Available horse, race, racecourse, trainer and jockey data were collated and combined with faller data recorded in official databases. Horses that were 'brought down' by another horse were not considered a f...
Phenotypic Definition Influences Genetic Inference and Predictive Ability for Reining Performance in Quarter Horses Using Random Regression Models. Reining performance is influenced by subjectivity and competition structure, challenging genetic evaluation. This study estimated genetic parameters for reining performance in Brazilian Quarter Horses using random regression models (RRM) and evaluated how alternative phenotypic definitions affect genetic inference and predictive ability. A dataset comprising 21,165 longitudinal records from 1603 horses was analyzed, comparing within-group rank (RANK) and Blom-transformed rank (BLOM). Model comparison indicated that cubic RRM provided the best fit for both phenotypes. Heritability estimates wer...
Global distribution of cattle, horses, goats, sheep and buffaloes at 1 km resolution for 2000-2022 based on subnational census data and spatiotemporal machine learning. The article describes the production and evaluation of annual livestock densities and headcounts of cattle, horses, sheep, goats and buffaloes (including 95% probability prediction intervals) at 1 km spatial resolution for the 2000-2022 period using spatiotemporal machine learning. A compilation of subnational livestock census data has been imported, harmonized and used as reference data (55,336 census polygons and 939,257 individual data entries; covering 147 countries) to build predictive models. A large stack of multi-source harmonized raster data sets (128 individual layers) were used as f...
Demographic change and selection patterns in thoroughbred racing horses over the 20th century. The Thoroughbred horse is a legacy of centuries of selective breeding for speed, emerging from the admixture of British mares and imported Oriental stallions. While previous work explored its genetic diversity, inbreeding, and selection signatures, the breed demographic and selection dynamics during the 20-century remain poorly understood. Here, we sequenced the genome of Phar Lap, a late-1920s/early-1930s racing champion, and analyzed the largest time-series of Thoroughbred whole-genome sequences, within a global panel of 850 horse genomes. Demographic modeling reveals a marked decline in gen...
Improving concussion assessment in jockeys: normative benchmarks and web-based tool for ImPACT interpretation. Despite horse racing's exceptionally high concussion risk, there is no jockey-specific ImPACT study. This work aimed to develop demographically adjusted, jockey-specific ImPACT norms and to evaluate complementary approaches to clinical classification. Unassigned: Retrospective baseline data from 663 Irish jockeys (2021-2024) were analyzed. Two normative methods were applied: (i) a univariate regression-based approach estimating expected scores for each cognitive domain independently, adjusting for age, sex, and education, with percentile-based classification; and (ii) a multivariate regression...
The Role of Artificial Intelligence in Equine Colic: A Scoping Review of Diagnostic, Prognostic, and Decision-Support Applications. Equine colic remains one of the leading causes of mortality in horses, with timely diagnosis and accurate prognostic assessment being critical for clinical decision-making. In recent years, artificial intelligence (AI) has been increasingly applied to support diagnostic and prognostic evaluation in veterinary medicine. However, the scope, methodological characteristics, and performance of AI models in equine colic have not been systematically mapped. Therefore, this scoping review was conducted to summarize current AI applications in equine colic, identify commonly used algorithms, describe re...
Genetic Indicators of Performance Resilience in Barrel Racing Quarter Horses. Resilience, defined as the capacity to maintain consistent performance under variable conditions, has emerged as a relevant breeding objective in livestock systems, yet remains largely unexplored in equine populations. The objectives of this study were to (1) derive indicators of resilience from longitudinal barrel racing time (BRT) records in Brazilian Quarter Horses, (2) estimate genetic parameters for these indicators, and (3) quantify their genetic relationships with BRT and accumulated career earnings (ACE). The dataset comprised BRT records from barrel racing events held between 2010 and...
Circulating microRNAs as potential predictive biomarkers of equine metabolic syndrome. Equine Metabolic Syndrome (EMS) is a complex endocrine disorder characterized by insulin dysregulation (ID), and an increased risk of developing laminitis, often accompanied by generalized or regional adiposity. Despite growing awareness of EMS, early and accurate diagnosis remains challenging. In this pilot study, we investigated changes in the levels of circulating microRNAs (miRNAs) in plasma samples from horses diagnosed with EMS (n=13), compared to overweight/obese (OW/OB) non-ID horses (n=16) and healthy controls (n=16). Using a targeted OpenArray, followed by a Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn's...
Seroprevalence, Risk Factors, and Environmental Correlates of Babesia caballi, Toxoplasma gondii, and Coxiella burnetii in Equids from Southwestern Greece. Equids, primarily horses, are mostly used for recreational purposes, although in some rural areas they also serve as working animals, maintaining close and frequent contact with humans. Their risk of exposure to vector-borne and zoonotic pathogens can be affected by host-related factors, management practices and environmental conditions. This study aimed to investigate the seroprevalence and associated risk factors for infections by , , , and sensu lato in equids from Southwestern Greece. A total of 159 equids were tested using commercial serological assays. Weighted prevalence estimates were...
A point-based laminitis risk scoring system and machine learning framework for prediction of laminitis in horses. Laminitis is a painful and potentially life-threatening inflammatory condition of the equine hoof, and its detection remains a major challenge in veterinary practice. Although several risk factors have been reported, the prediction of the onset of laminitis in a subclinical stage using routine clinical data is still limited. This study aims to address this gap by developing an interpretable machine learning (ML) framework for the prediction of the risk of laminitis in horses. A point-based risk scoring system was first constructed using multivariate logistic regression to quantify the contribu...
Diagnostic criteria for equine thoracolumbar myofascial pain syndrome: A foundational study. Diagnostic criteria for myofascial pain syndrome (MPS) are well established in humans but remain underexplored in horses. This study aimed to identify which MPS clinical signs were present in the equine thoracolumbar region, assess internal coherence among clinical indicators, and explore the diagnostic relevance of owner-reported behavioural, signalment, management, and clinical variables. A population of 120 horses underwent a static physical assessment of the thoracolumbar region. Owner-reported horse behaviours were collected through a questionnaire. Taut band, hypersensitive spot, local t...
Smartphone-Based Technologies in Equine Sports Medicine: Supporting Athlete Management-A Review. Equine sports medicine is increasingly oriented toward objective, field-based monitoring systems that support both performance optimization and welfare assessment. In this context, smartphone-based technologies have emerged as accessible tools capable of integrating data acquisition, processing, and interpretation within a single platform. This narrative review aims to examine the role of smartphones in equine sports medicine, focusing on their function as standalone sensing devices and as gateways for wearable and external sensor systems. The analysis is based on a structured synthesis of cur...
Detecting and measuring respiratory events in horses during exercise with a microphone: deep learning vs. standard signal processing. Monitoring respiration parameters such as respiratory rate could be beneficial to understand the impact of training on equine health and performance and ultimately improve equine welfare. In this work, we compare deep learning-based methods to an adapted signal processing method to automatically detect cyclic respiratory events and extract the dynamic respiratory rate from microphone recordings during high-intensity exercise in Standardbred trotters. Results: Our deep learning models are able to detect exhalation sounds (median F1 score of 0.94) in noisy microphone signals and show promising r...
Polygenic Prediction of Equestrian Sport Discipline Among Horses Bred for Jumping and Dressage. Horses bred for different equestrian sports vary in physical, physiological and behavioural requirements. Characterising genetic markers associated with discipline provides an opportunity to improve identification of horses best suited to either jumping or dressage. Using a composite selection signals test, genomic regions under positive selection in German warmblood horses divergent for discipline were identified that contained lead SNPs proximal to or within genes with functions relevant to the requirements for jumping and dressage. Dressage genes function in tortuosity of movement (GRM5) an...
A Comprehensive Analysis of the Agreement and Performance of Variant Annotation Programs in Equine Genomes. Advances in whole-genome sequencing (WGS) technology have led to the widespread adoption of WGS for investigating genetic diseases and traits in domestic animals. This has created a need for improved methods for prioritizing candidate causal variants. One way variants are prioritized is using variant annotators that predict variant effects based on their proximity to genomic features and effect on amino acid sequence. However, validation of variant annotators for domestic animal genomes is lacking. In this study, we calculated the agreement of three popular variant annotators, Ensembl Varian...
Sport predispositions in warmblood horses: insights from Grand Prix competitions. The aim of this study was to pilot the assessment of sport predispositions in warmblood horse breeds, both domestic and foreign, and to evaluate factors influencing their performance. Data from 293 horses (725 starts) competing in national Grand Prix events with obstacle heights of 140-145 cm were analysed using general mixed models. The origins of Polish Halfbred Horses were examined, and correlations between results in the Young Horse Championships and later Grand Prix performance were assessed. Results showed that performance is significantly influenced by genetic factors, such as breed and...
Transfer of passive immunity in foals: Can the plasma transfusion efficacy be predicted? The treatment for failure of transfer of passive immunity (FTPI) in foals with hyperimmune plasma has substantial variability of efficacy. Objective: The aims of the study were to assess the safety and efficacy of plasma transfusion and to investigate factors that may predict transfusion results, thereby allowing estimation of plasma volume requirements prior to transfusion. Methods: A retrospective review was conducted of foals admitted to an equine hospital that received a plasma transfusion for FTPI. Results: The study included 110 foals and 150 hyperimmune plasma transfusions. The median i...
Serum adipokines are useful for predicting hyperinsulinemia secondary to corticosteroid treatment in horses. To evaluate pretreatment biomarkers for predicting the severity of corticosteroid-induced hyperinsulinemia. Unassigned: Oral glucose tests were performed before (day 1) and after (day 8) a dexamethasone course (0.08 mg/kg, q 48 h) in 24 healthy adult Standardbreds. Associations between day 8 oral glucose test insulin parameters (baseline [T0insulin], maximal [Cmaxinsulin], and area under the curve [AUCinsulin]) and day 1 serum markers (insulin, glucose, adiponectin, leptin, and their ratios) were examined using Spearman correlation, log-linked generalized linear models. Relative risk of exceed...
Development of a prognostic scoring system for systemic inflammatory response syndrome in donkeys. Systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) is associated with increased mortality in horses with gastrointestinal (GI) disease. However, there are no data relating to naturally occurring SIRS in donkeys. Objective: To determine SIRS frequency in donkeys with GI disease. To develop a donkey-specific prognostic SIRS score. Methods: Retrospective case series. Methods: Clinical records from donkeys presenting with GI disease in two independent cohorts (development cohort: n = 400, UK; validation cohort: n = 36, Australia) were reviewed. Age, sex, heart rate, respiratory rate, rectal te...
Water and cryoprotectant permeability of mature equine oocytes: experimental measurements and in silico predictions. Vitrification of equine oocytes is an essential practice for advancing assisted reproductive technologies however, its efficiency remains limited due to the lack of stage and species-specific information on membrane permeability parameters. In this study, water (L) and CPA permeability (P) for dimethyl sulfoxide (Me₂SO) and ethylene glycol (EG) were measured in in vitro matured (MII) equine oocytes. Cumulus oocyte complexes were obtained from abattoir ovaries or by ovum pick-up and matured in vitro for 30 h at 6% CO. Oocytes followed ideal osmometer behavior principles, with an osmotically ...
A Genetic Algorithm-Based Approach for Quantitative Prediction of Drug-Drug Interactions Caused by Cytochrome P450 3A Inhibition or Induction in Horses. A genetic algorithm (GA)-based approach was designed to predict drug-drug interactions (DDIs) triggered by cytochrome P450 3A (CYP3A) inhibition or induction in horses. Area under the concentration-time curve ratios (AUCRs), obtained from published in vivo DDI studies in horses, were used to compute the following parameters: (1) the contribution ratio (CR), i.e., the fraction of the substrate dose metabolized via the CYP3A pathway, and (2) the interacting drug's inhibitory potency or inducing efficacy (IR or IC, respectively). AUCRs for 9 substrates, 12 inhibitors, and 1 inducer of equine C...
Comparison of Two Different Finite Element Modeling Pipelines for Virtual Mechanical Testing of The Distal Third Metacarpal Bone In Thoroughbred Racehorses. Condylar stress fracture of the third metacarpal bone (MC3) in Thoroughbred racehorses is a common catastrophic injury and identification of horses at heightened risk remains subjective. Standing computed tomography (sCT) is a practical screening tool that enables patient-specific finite element analysis (FEA) of the distal MC3 and prediction of subchondral bone strain, as a potential objective classifier of racehorses at heightened risk. The goal of this study was to compare two independently developed sCT-based subject-specific FEA pipelines for virtual mechanical testing of the distal MC3. ...
Venous blood lactate concentration as a predictor of intestinal viability in horses with acquired indirect inguinal hernia. Background: Acquired indirect inguinal hernia represents a life-threatening emergency. Therapeutic decision-making largely depends on intestinal viability, for which specific predictive parameters (such as venous lactate) have not been evaluated.Objectives: Investigating the predictive performance of venous blood lactate and other laboratory results on intestinal viability in horses with acquired indirect inguinal hernias.Study designRetrospective multicentre observational study.Methods: Seventy-four horses diagnosed with acquired indirect inguinal hernia (treated surgically) at two referral h...
Risk assessment of West Nile fever in equines in Europe based on an ecological niche model. West Nile fever is a zoonotic viral disease transmitted by Culex mosquitoes, capable of causing severe neurological illness in humans, equines, and birds. Over the past dozen years, Europe has experienced numerous WNF outbreaks of varying severity, leading to significant public health and economic impacts. Consequently, WNF has emerged as a major concern for both public health and veterinary sectors. In this study, we employed spatiotemporal analysis techniques alongside an optimized ecological niche model to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of historical WNF outbreaks, pre...
