Demonstrating freedom from equine influenza in New South Wales, Australia, following the 2007 outbreak.
Abstract: To quantify the probability of freedom from equine influenza (EI) in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, based on analysis of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing. Methods: Testing in the infected areas of NSW during the period 1 January to 30 April 2008. Results: Data from the random survey were collated and analysed to provide estimates of the probability of detecting EI if it was present at a prevalence ranging from 0.01% to 0.5%. The sensitivity estimates were then combined with a prior estimate of the probability of freedom in a simulation model, to estimate the posterior probability of freedom from EI (given the negative results of the random survey). Conclusions: The very large volume of PCR tests performed provided a very high level of confidence that EI had been successfully eradicated from NSW.
© 2011 The Authors. Australian Veterinary Journal © 2011 Australian Veterinary Association.
Publication Date: 2011-07-08 PubMed ID: 21711322DOI: 10.1111/j.1751-0813.2011.00779.xGoogle Scholar: Lookup
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- Journal Article
Summary
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The research studied the probability of horses in New South Wales, Australia being free of equine influenza following the 2007 outbreak and concluded that the virus was successfully eradicated.
Testing and Estimates
- The authors of the research paper analyzed results from polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests carried out on horses from the regions of New South Wales that had been infected during an outbreak of equine influenza (EI) in 2007. This testing was conducted from January 1 to April 30, 2008.
- Using the data from this random survey, they estimated the probability of detecting EI if it was present at various prevalence levels, ranging from 0.01% to 0.5%. These estimates provided them with the sensitivity of the testing method in detecting EI.
Combining Estimates with Probability of Freedom
- The sensitivity estimates were used in conjunction with an initial probability of freedom from EI to create a simulation model.
- From this model, they could estimate the posterior probability of horses in New South Wales being free from EI, given the negative results obtained from the random survey.
Conclusions
- Based on the high volume of PCR tests carried out and their resulting data, the researchers concluded with a high level of confidence that equine influenza had been successfully eradicated from New South Wales.
- This study can serve as an effective model for confirming the eradication of infectious diseases in animal populations.
Cite This Article
APA
Sergeant ES, Wilson G.
(2011).
Demonstrating freedom from equine influenza in New South Wales, Australia, following the 2007 outbreak.
Aust Vet J, 89 Suppl 1, 164-169.
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1751-0813.2011.00779.x Publication
Researcher Affiliations
- NSW Department of Primary Industries, Orange, NSW, Australia. evan@ausvet.com.au
MeSH Terms
- Animals
- Computer Simulation
- Data Collection
- Disease Outbreaks / prevention & control
- Disease Outbreaks / veterinary
- Horse Diseases / diagnosis
- Horse Diseases / epidemiology
- Horse Diseases / prevention & control
- Horse Diseases / virology
- Horses
- Influenza A Virus, H3N8 Subtype / genetics
- Influenza A Virus, H3N8 Subtype / isolation & purification
- Models, Biological
- New South Wales / epidemiology
- Orthomyxoviridae Infections / diagnosis
- Orthomyxoviridae Infections / epidemiology
- Orthomyxoviridae Infections / prevention & control
- Orthomyxoviridae Infections / veterinary
- Population Surveillance / methods
- Prevalence
- RNA, Viral / chemistry
- RNA, Viral / genetics
- Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction / veterinary
Citations
This article has been cited 1 times.- Henderson R, Charlton S, Fraser C, Moloney B, Sergeant ESG, Dominiak BC. Eradication of Yellow Crazy Ants, Anoplolepis gracileps Smith, from Lismore and Statistical Proof of Freedom Using Scenario Tree Analysis. Insects 2025 Jan 24;16(2).
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