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Home / Equine Research Bank / Front Vet Sci / Descriptive and Time-Series Analysis of Rabies in Different ...
Frontiers in veterinary science2022; 9; 800735; doi: 10.3389/fvets.2022.800735

Descriptive and Time-Series Analysis of Rabies in Different Animal Species in Mexico.

Abstract: The spatio-temporal epidemiology of rabies has related the influence of environmental factors and anthropogenic changes on the movements of the hematophagous bat Desmodus rotundus. In Mexico, D. rotundus is the main transmitter of the rabies virus for different livestock species, modifying annually the fluctuation of the number of cases of rabies and its dissemination in subtropical areas and regions considered free of the disease. The purpose of this study was to perform a descriptive analysis of the distribution of cases of rabies in Mexico, and to perform a time-series analysis to evaluate stationarity and to predict the number of cases for the following year. A total of 3,469 cases were reported in the period of interest, of which the 89.1% occurred in cattle, 4.3% in horses, 1.5% in sheep, 0.6% in goats, 0.01% in pig, 3.1% in vampire bats, 0.3% in cervids, 0.2% in skunks, 0.1% in insectivorous bats, 0.1% in foxes, 0.1% in buffaloes, and 0.02% in coatis; 0.5% were not identified. The most frequent antigenic variants reported were AgV11, AgV5, and AgV3, associated with D. rotundus. The distribution of cases in bats correlates with the distribution of cases in domestic and wild animals; however, cases were observed in wild species in non-endemic areas of Mexico, like the State of Chihuahua. The additive model used in the time-series analysis showed a seasonal pattern with a peak of cases at the beginning of each year, from January to March. The model showed a good predicting value; the Pearson correlation coefficient R2 was 0.705. The highest probability for the occurrence of rabies cases in the different species estimated by Ordinary Kriging was in the coast of the Gulf of Mexico, involving the states of Tamaulipas, Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas, and Yucatan. This study confirms that rabies in domestic and wild species is endemic in tropical and subtropical areas-however, cases have been observed in new geographic areas-and provides useful information to support actions to stop the spread of the rabies virus or the reservoir, and for planning vaccination strategies considering time and place.
Copyright © 2022 Ortega-Sánchez, Bárcenas-Reyes, Cantó-Alarcón, Luna-Cozar, E, Contreras-Magallanes, González-Ruiz, Cortez-García and Milián-Suazo.
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Publication Date: 2022-04-01 PubMed ID: 35433923PubMed Central: PMC9010467DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2022.800735Google Scholar: Lookup
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Summary

This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.

This study investigates the occurrence of rabies in different animal species in Mexico and examines how environmental and human factors might influence its spread. It also attempts to predict future outbreaks using a time-series analysis.

Study Objective and Methods

  • The main aim of the study was to examine and describe the distribution of rabies cases in Mexico, looking at different animals. Additionally, the researchers wanted to carry out a time-series analysis to check for patterns over time and create forecasts for the following year.
  • A total of 3,469 cases were analyzed during the study period, occurring mainly in cattle, horses, sheep, goats, pigs, bats, cervids, skunks, foxes, buffaloes, and coatis. A small percentage of the cases were not identified to a specific animal.
  • The researchers primarily focused on a particular type of hematophagous (blood-eating) bat, thought to be a main transmitter of rabies among various livestock species in Mexico.

Findings

  • The results showed that the distribution of rabies cases among bats correlates with cases in domestic and wild animals. However, there were also cases observed in wild species in non-endemic regions, such as the State of Chihuahua.
  • The study found a regular pattern in rabies occurrences with a peak at the beginning of each year, from January to March, providing a potential indicator for future epidemic control strategies.
  • The model used demonstrated a good predictive value with a Pearson correlation coefficient R of 0.705, indicating a relatively strong correlation between variables.
  • The greatest likelihood of rabies occurring was on the Gulf of Mexico’s coast, particularly in the states of Tamaulipas, Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas, and Yucatan.

Implications

  • This research confirms that rabies in both domestic and wild animal species is endemic in tropical and subtropical areas. However, the occurrence of cases in previously untouched regions suggests a change in geographical spread.
  • The study’s findings could prove useful for health authorities in developing measures to prevent the further spread of the rabies virus and constructing effective vaccination strategies that take into account the time and location of likely outbreaks.

Cite This Article

APA
Ortega-Sánchez R, Bárcenas-Reyes I, Cantó-Alarcón GJ, Luna-Cozar J, E RA, Contreras-Magallanes YG, González-Ruiz S, Cortez-García B, Milián-Suazo F. (2022). Descriptive and Time-Series Analysis of Rabies in Different Animal Species in Mexico. Front Vet Sci, 9, 800735. https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2022.800735

Publication

Frontiers in veterinary science
ISSN: 2297-1769
NlmUniqueID: 101666658
Country: Switzerland
Language: English
Volume: 9
Pages: 800735

Researcher Affiliations

Ortega-Sánchez, Reyna
  • Doctorado en Ciencias Biológicas Facultad de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro, Querétaro, Mexico.
  • Facultad de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro, Querétaro, Mexico.
Bárcenas-Reyes, Isabel
  • Facultad de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro, Querétaro, Mexico.
Cantó-Alarcón, Germinal Jorge
  • Facultad de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro, Querétaro, Mexico.
Luna-Cozar, Jesús
  • Facultad de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro, Querétaro, Mexico.
E, Rojas-Anaya
  • Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias-Centro de Investigación Regional Pacífico Centro, Guadalajara, Mexico.
Contreras-Magallanes, Yesenia G
  • Doctorado en Ciencias Biológicas Facultad de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro, Querétaro, Mexico.
  • Facultad de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro, Querétaro, Mexico.
González-Ruiz, Sara
  • Facultad de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro, Querétaro, Mexico.
Cortez-García, Baltazar
  • Jefe de Departamento de Rabia Paralítica y Garrapata, Servicio Nacional de Sanidad, Inocuidad y Calidad Agroalimentaria (SENASICA), Ciudad de Mexico, Mexico.
Milián-Suazo, Feliciano
  • Facultad de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro, Querétaro, Mexico.

Conflict of Interest Statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

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Citations

This article has been cited 5 times.
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