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Home / Equine Research Bank / Ecohealth / Hendra Virus Spillover is a Bimodal System Driven by Climati...
EcoHealth2018; 15(3); 526-542; doi: 10.1007/s10393-017-1309-y

Hendra Virus Spillover is a Bimodal System Driven by Climatic Factors.

Abstract: Understanding environmental factors driving spatiotemporal patterns of disease can improve risk mitigation strategies. Hendra virus (HeV), discovered in Australia in 1994, spills over from bats (Pteropus sp.) to horses and thence to humans. Below latitude - 22°, almost all spillover events to horses occur during winter, and above this latitude spillover is aseasonal. We generated a statistical model of environmental drivers of HeV spillover per month. The model reproduced the spatiotemporal pattern of spillover risk between 1994 and 2015. The model was generated with an ensemble of methods for presence-absence data (boosted regression trees, random forests and logistic regression). Presences were the locations of horse cases, and absences per spatial unit (2.7 × 2.7 km pixels without spillover) were sampled with the horse census of Queensland and New South Wales. The most influential factors indicate that spillover is associated with both cold-dry and wet conditions. Bimodal responses to several variables suggest spillover involves two systems: one above and one below a latitudinal area close to - 22°. Northern spillovers are associated with cold-dry and wet conditions, and southern with cold-dry conditions. Biologically, these patterns could be driven by immune or behavioural changes in response to food shortage in bats and horse husbandry. Future research should look for differences in these traits between seasons in the two latitudinal regions. Based on the predicted risk patterns by latitude, we recommend enhanced preventive management for horses from March to November below latitude 22° south.
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Publication Date: 2018-01-18 PubMed ID: 29349533DOI: 10.1007/s10393-017-1309-yGoogle Scholar: Lookup
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  • Journal Article
  • Research Support
  • Non-U.S. Gov't

Summary

This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.

The research article discusses how climatic conditions influence the spatiotemporal patterns of Hendra virus spillover from bats to horses and then humans, focusing on a bimodal system which changes at latitude -22°.

Study Objective and Methodology

  • The aim of the research was to comprehend the impact of environmental factors on the spatiotemporal patterns of Hendra virus (HeV) spillover.
  • The researchers sought to understand if it was possible to make mitigation strategies more effective by understanding the factors affecting disease outbreaks.
  • They created a statistical model using a combination of methods geared for presence-absence data, like boosted regression trees, random forests, and logistic regression.
  • The presence data was taken from the locations of horse cases, while absences per spatial unit were sampled with the horse census of Queensland and New South Wales.

Findings

  • The team found that the spillover pattern was mainly associated with cold-dry and wet conditions. In addition, the researchers observed that several variables had a bimodal response, suggesting the existences of two distinct systems above and below latitude -22°.
  • North of -22°, spillovers were linked with cold-dry and wet conditions, while underneath this latitude, spillovers were associated with cold-dry conditions.
  • The team hypothesized that these patterns might be driven by immune or behavioral changes in bats and horses due to food shortage.

Recommendations and Future Research

  • The research suggests that future studies should explore potential differences in these traits between seasons in the two latitudinal regions. There could be insights gleaned about the behavior of bats and horses and how it affects HeV spillover.
  • Based on the prediction patterns, the study also recommends more preventive management for horses from March to November below latitude 22° south. This may help decrease the risk of HeV infections.

Cite This Article

APA
Martin G, Yanez-Arenas C, Plowright RK, Chen C, Roberts B, Skerratt LF. (2018). Hendra Virus Spillover is a Bimodal System Driven by Climatic Factors. Ecohealth, 15(3), 526-542. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-017-1309-y

Publication

EcoHealth
ISSN: 1612-9210
NlmUniqueID: 101222144
Country: United States
Language: English
Volume: 15
Issue: 3
Pages: 526-542

Researcher Affiliations

Martin, Gerardo
  • One Health Research Group, College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia. gerardommc@gmail.com.
Yanez-Arenas, Carlos
  • Laboratorio de Conservación de la Biodiversidad, Parque Científico y Tecnológico de Yucatán, Universidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico.
Plowright, Raina K
  • Bozeman Disease Ecology Lab, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, USA.
Chen, Carla
  • Australian Institute of Marine Sciences, Townsville, QLD, Australia.
Roberts, Billie
  • Griffith School of Environment, Griffith University, Nathan, QLD, Australia.
Skerratt, Lee F
  • One Health Research Group, College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia.

MeSH Terms

  • Animals
  • Australia / epidemiology
  • Chiroptera / virology
  • Climate Change / statistics & numerical data
  • Disease Outbreaks / statistics & numerical data
  • Disease Transmission, Infectious / statistics & numerical data
  • Henipavirus Infections / epidemiology
  • Henipavirus Infections / transmission
  • Henipavirus Infections / virology
  • Horse Diseases / transmission
  • Horse Diseases / virology
  • Horses
  • Humans
  • Models, Statistical
  • Spatio-Temporal Analysis
  • Zoonoses / transmission
  • Zoonoses / virology

Grant Funding

  • PRJ-008213 / Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation

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Citations

This article has been cited 14 times.
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