Investigation of Factors Influencing Thoroughbred Horses’ Racing Career Length in Turkey.
Abstract: The aim of this research was to determine the average length of a Thoroughbred horse's racing career in Turkey using survival functions of Thoroughbred horses with various characteristics. In addition, the aim was to identify risk factors that could influence the duration of a Thoroughbred horse's racing career and develop a survival model that took these factors into account. A total of 11,721 Thoroughbred horses born in 2007 and later were included in the study population. The horses involved in the study were followed for a minimum of 1 year. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to calculate the average length of racing career for each factor studied. Extended Cox regression analysis was used to determine the risk factors upon time of career ending and to create a survival model. Results showed that, the mean career length of Thoroughbred horses was 17.79 months (95% CI: 17.41-18.13). Also, "starting age of the race," "number of starts," "type of track where the race started," "racing on a single type racetrack" and "earning status" were found risk factors that affect the length of the racing career. Earnings was the top relative contributor to the established model, and its sole adjusted effect showed that being in the lowest earning group increased the hazard of career ending 2.28 times (95% CI:1.98-2.61) compared to horses with highest earning group. In conclusion, clear differences upon the length of racing career was observed for each investigated factor. Future studies should be considerate of these differences when analyzing population data.
Copyright © 2021. Published by Elsevier Inc.
Publication Date: 2021-10-07 PubMed ID: 34802622DOI: 10.1016/j.jevs.2021.103782Google Scholar: Lookup
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- Journal Article
- Research Support
- Non-U.S. Gov't
Summary
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This research studies the average length of Thoroughbred horses’ racing careers in Turkey and examines the risk factors that could influence their career span. Based on a survival model established from a sample of 11,721 horses, the study finds the mean career length was slightly under 18 months, and factors such as the age at career initiation, track type, and income level play significant roles in determining career length.
About the Study
- The study aims to measure the average duration of racing careers of Thoroughbred horses in Turkey, which involved a sample size of 11,721 horses born in 2007 or later. These horses were observed for at least one year.
- In building a survival model to estimate racing career length, the research used Kaplan-Meier analysis (a nonparametric statistic used to estimate the survival function from lifetime data) to calculate average career length for each factor under investigation.
- Extended Cox regression analysis, a statistical method for investigating the effect of several variables upon the time a specified event takes to happen, was used to determine the risks of various factors on the timing of termination of a horse’s racing career.
Findings
- The average career length for Thoroughbred horses was found to be 17.79 months, with a slight possibility of variations.
- Various risk factors were identified that could affect career length. These include the horse’s age when they started racing, the number of races they participated in, the type of racetrack where they started racing, whether they raced on only one type of track, and their earning levels.
- Among these factors, the horse’s earning level was found to be the most influential. The study found that horses in the lowest earning group were more than twice as likely to have a shorter career compared to those in the highest earning group.
Conclusion and Future Research Recommendations
- The research concludes that there are clear differences in career lengths depending on the aforementioned factors. Therefore, these factors should be considered in future research studying population data on thoroughbred horses’ racing careers.
Cite This Article
APA
Özen D, Kaya U, Özen H, Ambarcioğlu P, Ünal N, Gürcan İS.
(2021).
Investigation of Factors Influencing Thoroughbred Horses’ Racing Career Length in Turkey.
J Equine Vet Sci, 107, 103782.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jevs.2021.103782 Publication
Researcher Affiliations
- Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Division of Animal Husbandry and Animal Nutrition, Department of Biostatistics, Ankara University, Ankara, Turkey. Electronic address: ozen@ankara.edu.tr.
- Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Division of Animal Husbandry and Animal Nutrition, Department of Biostatistics, Hatay Mustafa Kemal University, Hatay, Turkey.
- Faculty of Medicine, Department of Biostatistics, Eskisehir Osmangazi University, Eskisehir, Turkey.
- Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Division of Animal Husbandry and Animal Nutrition, Department of Biostatistics, Hatay Mustafa Kemal University, Hatay, Turkey.
- Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Division of Animal Husbandry and Animal Nutrition, Department of Animal Science, Ankara University, Ankara, Turkey.
- Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Division of Animal Husbandry and Animal Nutrition, Department of Biostatistics, Ankara University, Ankara, Turkey.
MeSH Terms
- Animals
- Horses
- Kaplan-Meier Estimate
- Physical Conditioning, Animal
- Running
- Turkey
Citations
This article has been cited 3 times.- Legg KA, Gee EK, Breheny M, Gibson MJ, Rogers CW. A Bioeconomic Model for the Thoroughbred Racing Industry-Optimisation of the Production Cycle with a Horse Centric Welfare Perspective. Animals (Basel) 2023 Jan 30;13(3).
- Sobotková E, Kopec T, Mikule V, Kuřitková D. Influence of horse demographics, country of training and race distance on the rating of Thoroughbreds. Arch Anim Breed 2023;66(4):299-313.
- Argentina M, Mahadevan L. Fluid-flow-induced flutter of a flag. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2005 Feb 8;102(6):1829-34.
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