Investigation of Factors Influencing Thoroughbred Horses’ Racing Career Length in Turkey.

This research studies the average length of Thoroughbred horses’ racing careers in Turkey and examines the risk factors that could influence their career span. Based on a survival model established from a sample of 11,721 horses, the study finds the mean career length was slightly under 18 months, and factors such as the age at career initiation, track type, and income level play significant roles in determining career length.

About the Study

• The study aims to measure the average duration of racing careers of Thoroughbred horses in Turkey, which involved a sample size of 11,721 horses born in 2007 or later. These horses were observed for at least one year.
• In building a survival model to estimate racing career length, the research used Kaplan-Meier analysis (a nonparametric statistic used to estimate the survival function from lifetime data) to calculate average career length for each factor under investigation.
• Extended Cox regression analysis, a statistical method for investigating the effect of several variables upon the time a specified event takes to happen, was used to determine the risks of various factors on the timing of termination of a horse’s racing career.

Findings

• The average career length for Thoroughbred horses was found to be 17.79 months, with a slight possibility of variations.
• Various risk factors were identified that could affect career length. These include the horse’s age when they started racing, the number of races they participated in, the type of racetrack where they started racing, whether they raced on only one type of track, and their earning levels.
• Among these factors, the horse’s earning level was found to be the most influential. The study found that horses in the lowest earning group were more than twice as likely to have a shorter career compared to those in the highest earning group.

Conclusion and Future Research Recommendations

• The research concludes that there are clear differences in career lengths depending on the aforementioned factors. Therefore, these factors should be considered in future research studying population data on thoroughbred horses’ racing careers.