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Home / Equine Research Bank / Vet Surg / Predicting return to racing after repair of fractures of the...
Veterinary surgery : VS2022; 51(5); 753-762; doi: 10.1111/vsu.13820

Predicting return to racing after repair of fractures of the metacarpal/metatarsal condyles in Thoroughbred racehorses.

Abstract: To identify prognostic factors for return to racing after lag screw repair of condylar fractures and develop a predictive model for return to racing. Methods: Retrospective cohort study. Methods: A total of 356 horses referred to a single referral hospital in the UK with a third metacarpal/metatarsal condylar fracture between January 1999 and December 2018. Methods: Age, sex, fracture site, fracture characteristics, surgery related variables and complications were retrieved from case records. Data were divided into two sets for model training and model validation. Univariable analyses were performed, and predictors were selected in a stepwise fashion for inclusion in the multivariable logistic regression model. Sensitivity and specificity were evaluated using the second dataset. Results: Older horses, fillies, fractures of forelimbs, complex, complete, displaced or propagating fractures and concurrent proximal sesamoid bone fracture were negatively associated with return to racing. Colts and geldings were 3 and 4 times more likely to race than fillies, respectively. Horses with hindlimb, incomplete or nonpropagating fractures were 4, 5 and 4 times more likely to race than those with a forelimb, complete or propagating fracture, respectively. Using a predicted probability cut-off threshold of 0.5, a predictive model was created within one dataset (sensitivity = 84%, specificity = 50.5%) and applied to another (sensitivity = 83.1%, specificity = 24.0%). Conclusions: Negative prognostic factors were identified and led to a predictive model with acceptable sensitivity and specificity in the tested population. Conclusions: The results provide proof of concept for the model in the reported population and justify further validation in different populations of horses.
© 2022 American College of Veterinary Surgeons.
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Publication Date: 2022-05-08 PubMed ID: 35527476DOI: 10.1111/vsu.13820Google Scholar: Lookup
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  • Journal Article

Summary

This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.

The research study aims to determine the factors affecting a racehorse’s return to racing after surgical repair of metacarpal or metatarsal condylar fractures. The study further develops a predictive model, based on identified factors, to predict a racehorse’s return to racing post-surgery.

Methods

  • The retrospective cohort study reviewed the case records of 356 racehorses that were referred to a single tertiary hospital in the UK due to third metacarpal or metatarsal condylar fractures between 1999 to 2018.
  • Important data such as the horse’s age, sex, fracture site, fracture characteristics, data related to surgery, and complications were collected from the horses’ records.
  • The collected data were split into two sets: one for model training and the other for model validation.
  • Predictors were chosen in a stepwise manner for inclusion in the multivariable logistic regression model after performing univariable analyses.
  • The sensitivity and specificity of the model were evaluated using the second (validation) dataset.

Results

  • Variables such as older horses, fillies (female horses), fractures located in forelimbs, complex, complete, displaced, or propagating fractures were found to negatively impact the likelihood of a horse returning to race after injury.
  • Horses that were more likely to return to racing were male (colts and geldings) and those with fractures located in the hindlimbs. Horses with incomplete or non-propagating fractures were also more likely to race again.
  • Using a predicted probability cut-off threshold of 0.5, a predictive model was constructed that had a sensitivity of 84% and a specificity of 50.5% in one dataset. The model was then applied to a validation dataset with acceptable sensitivity (83.1%) and specificity (24.0%).

Conclusions

  • The study identified negative prognostic factors and used these to create a predictive model with acceptable sensitivity and specificity in the tested population.
  • The successful creation of this model serves to provide a proof of concept, setting the groundwork for future studies to validate this model in different populations of horses.

Cite This Article

APA
Young N, Corletto F, Wright I. (2022). Predicting return to racing after repair of fractures of the metacarpal/metatarsal condyles in Thoroughbred racehorses. Vet Surg, 51(5), 753-762. https://doi.org/10.1111/vsu.13820

Publication

Veterinary surgery : VS
ISSN: 1532-950X
NlmUniqueID: 8113214
Country: United States
Language: English
Volume: 51
Issue: 5
Pages: 753-762

Researcher Affiliations

Young, Natalie
  • Newmarket Equine Hospital, Newmarket, UK.
Corletto, Federico
  • Newmarket Equine Hospital, Newmarket, UK.
Wright, Ian
  • Newmarket Equine Hospital, Newmarket, UK.

MeSH Terms

  • Animals
  • Female
  • Forelimb / surgery
  • Fractures, Bone / surgery
  • Fractures, Bone / veterinary
  • Horse Diseases / surgery
  • Horses
  • Male
  • Metacarpal Bones / surgery
  • Metatarsal Bones / surgery
  • Retrospective Studies

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