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Home / Equine Research Bank / PLoS Negl Trop Dis / Predicting the spatio-temporal spread of West Nile virus in ...
PLoS neglected tropical diseases2021; 15(1); e0009022; doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009022

Predicting the spatio-temporal spread of West Nile virus in Europe.

Abstract: West Nile virus is a widely spread arthropod-born virus, which has mosquitoes as vectors and birds as reservoirs. Humans, as dead-end hosts of the virus, may suffer West Nile Fever (WNF), which sometimes leads to death. In Europe, the first large-scale epidemic of WNF occurred in 1996 in Romania. Since then, human cases have increased in the continent, where the highest number of cases occurred in 2018. Using the location of WNF cases in 2017 and favorability models, we developed two risk models, one environmental and the other spatio-environmental, and tested their capacity to predict in 2018: 1) the location of WNF; 2) the intensity of the outbreaks (i.e. the number of confirmed human cases); and 3) the imminence of the cases (i.e. the Julian week in which the first case occurred). We found that climatic variables (the maximum temperature of the warmest month and the annual temperature range), human-related variables (rain-fed agriculture, the density of poultry and horses), and topo-hydrographic variables (the presence of rivers and altitude) were the best environmental predictors of WNF outbreaks in Europe. The spatio-environmental model was the most useful in predicting the location of WNF outbreaks, which suggests that a spatial structure, probably related to bird migration routes, has a role in the geographical pattern of WNF in Europe. Both the intensity of cases and their imminence were best predicted using the environmental model, suggesting that these features of the disease are linked to the environmental characteristics of the areas. We highlight the relevance of river basins in the propagation dynamics of the disease, as outbreaks started in the lower parts of the river basins, from where WNF spread towards the upper parts. Therefore, river basins should be considered as operational geographic units for the public health management of the disease.
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Publication Date: 2021-01-07 PubMed ID: 33411739PubMed Central: PMC7790247DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009022Google Scholar: Lookup
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Summary

This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.

This research focuses on predicting the spread and impact of West Nile fever (WNF) in Europe, based on environmental factors and geographic patterns tied to bird migration routes. It puts forward two potential predictive models – an environmental one and a spatio-environmental one – and explores their effectiveness.

Overview of Research Methodology

  • The researchers have created two predictive models to forecast the spread of WNF in Europe. These models are termed as ‘environmental’ and ‘spatio-environmental’ models.
  • The data input for these models was derived from the location of WNF cases in 2017.
  • The models were then tested for their prediction accuracy for 2018 on three different aspects: 1) the location of WNF cases; 2) the intensity of outbreaks, that is, the number of confirmed human cases of the disease; 3) the imminence of the cases, meaning the Julian week during which the first case of WNF occurred.

Key Findings

  • The study revealed that certain climatic variables, such as the maximum temperature of the warmest month and the annual temperature range, had significant predictive power.
  • Additionally, it was found that human-related variables, such as rain-fed agriculture, the density of poultry, and horses also played an important role in predicting WNF outbreaks.
  • The features of the topo-hydrographic environment, specifically the presence of rivers and altitude, were among the best predictors of WNF outbreaks in Europe.
  • Overall, the spatio-environmental model was the most useful in predicting the location of WNF outbreaks. This suggested that a spatial structure, which is likely related to bird migration routes, has a significant role in the geographical pattern of WNF in Europe.
  • The intensity of cases and their imminence were best predicted using the environmental model, indicating that these features of the disease are intrinsically linked to the environmental characteristics of certain areas.

Implications and Recommendations

  • The study found a notable role of river basins in the propagation dynamics of the disease. Outbreaks typically started in the lower parts of the river basins and spread towards the upper parts.
  • Given this finding, the researchers recommend that these river basins should be considered as operational geographic units for the public health management of the disease.

Cite This Article

APA
García-Carrasco JM, Muñoz AR, Olivero J, Segura M, Real R. (2021). Predicting the spatio-temporal spread of West Nile virus in Europe. PLoS Negl Trop Dis, 15(1), e0009022. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009022

Publication

PLoS neglected tropical diseases
ISSN: 1935-2735
NlmUniqueID: 101291488
Country: United States
Language: English
Volume: 15
Issue: 1
Pages: e0009022
PII: e0009022

Researcher Affiliations

García-Carrasco, José-María
  • Biogeography, Diversity and Conservation Lab, Department of Animal Biology, Faculty of Sciences, University of Málaga, Málaga, Spain.
Muñoz, Antonio-Román
  • Biogeography, Diversity and Conservation Lab, Department of Animal Biology, Faculty of Sciences, University of Málaga, Málaga, Spain.
Olivero, Jesús
  • Biogeography, Diversity and Conservation Lab, Department of Animal Biology, Faculty of Sciences, University of Málaga, Málaga, Spain.
Segura, Marina
  • International Vaccination Center of Malaga, Maritime Port of Malaga, Ministry of Health, Consumption and Social Welfare, Government of Spain, Málaga, Spain.
Real, Raimundo
  • Biogeography, Diversity and Conservation Lab, Department of Animal Biology, Faculty of Sciences, University of Málaga, Málaga, Spain.

MeSH Terms

  • Climate
  • Disease Outbreaks
  • Environment
  • Europe / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Rivers
  • West Nile Fever / epidemiology
  • West Nile Fever / transmission

Conflict of Interest Statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

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