Prediction of foaling using mammary secretion constituents.
Abstract: To test published models for predicting time of foaling using data derived from prepartum mammary secretions and to develop a new model based on concentrations of mammary secretion constituents that accurately predicts time of foaling in Thoroughbred mares. Methods: Concentrations of sodium, potassium, calcium, citrate and lactose were measured in prepartum mammary secretions of 20 Thoroughbred mares in the 2 weeks before expected date of foaling. Models to predict time of foaling were fitted to data based on absolute concentration, change in concentration, and percentage change in concentration of mammary secretion constituents in relation to actual intervals to foaling. Results: Concentrations of potassium, calcium, citrate and lactose increased, and concentration of sodium decreased as foaling approached but variation between mares was large. Models to predict time of foaling based on percentage change in electrolyte concentrations were less accurate than those based on absolute concentration and change in concentration. When data from this study were fitted to two previously published models, the statistical sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of both models were lower than those originally reported. Conclusions: The use of prepartum equine mammary secretion electrolyte concentrations for prediction of time of foaling is unreliable, due to large variation in both absolute concentrations and change in concentrations between mares. Models that use a combination of mammary secretion electrolytes and physical and behavioural factors may better predict foaling than those based on mammary secretions alone.
Publication Date: 2005-07-21 PubMed ID: 16032219DOI: 10.1080/00480169.2002.36290Google Scholar: Lookup
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- Journal Article
Summary
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The research study aims to improve the prediction of foaling in Thoroughbred mares by examining the impact of certain mammary secretion constituents. However, the results pointed out that the use of prepartum equine mammary secretion electrolyte concentrations for such predictions might be unreliable due to large variations between different mares.
Objectives and Methods
- The researchers aim was to test the previously published models for predicting the time of foaling using data derived from prepartum mammary secretions of Thoroughbred mares. In addition, they sought to develop a new predictive model based on concentrations of mammary secretion constituents.
- To do this, they measured concentrations of sodium, potassium, calcium, citrate, and lactose in prepartum mammary secretions of 20 Thoroughbred mares in the 2 weeks leading up to the expected foaling date.
- They attempted to fit models to predict the time of foaling using three different approaches: based on absolute concentration, change in concentration, and percentage change in concentration of mammary secretion constituents regarding actual intervals to foaling.
Results
- The results showed that concentrations of potassium, calcium, citrate, and lactose increased as foaling approached while sodium concentration decreased. However, these concentrations varied significantly between different mares.
- The models for predicting time of foaling based on the percentage change in electrolyte concentrations were found to be less accurate than those based on absolute concentration or change in concentration.
- When they applied the data from this study to two previously published models, the statistical sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of both models were lower than those originally reported.
Conclusions
- The findings suggest that the use of prepartum equine mammary secretion electrolyte concentrations for predicting the time of foaling is unreliable due to the large variation in both the absolute concentrations and change in concentrations between different mares.
- The researchers concluded that models which combine the data on mammary secretion electrolytes with physical and behavioural factors might provide a more accurate prediction of foaling than those based solely on mammary secretions.
Cite This Article
APA
Brown-Douglas CG, Perkins NR, Stafford KJ, Hedderley DI.
(2005).
Prediction of foaling using mammary secretion constituents.
N Z Vet J, 50(3), 99-103.
https://doi.org/10.1080/00480169.2002.36290 Publication
Researcher Affiliations
- Institute of Veterinary Animal and Biomedical Sciences, Massey University, Private Bag 11222, Palmerston North, New Zealand. C.G.Brown-Douglas@massey.ac.nz
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