Risk factors and sources of variation in horse falls in steeplechase racing in the UK.
Abstract: We identified risk factors associated with falling during steeplechase racing. We used retrospective data from all steeplechase runs on UK racecourses during 1999: 10,866 starts with 647 horse falls. The relationship between continuous variables and falling was assessed using generalised additive models (GAMs). Polynomial fits then were included in a multilevel, multivariable logistic-regression model. The number of runners had a linear, positive association with the risk of falling. The distance of the race had a non-linear relationship with the risk of falling; the risk steadily increased in races up to 23 furlongs (1furlong approximately equals 198 m), and then decreased in longer races. Age also had a significant, non-linear relationship with the risk of falling: a decreasing risk up to 12 years of age followed by an increasing risk in older horses. Horses that wore visors and had raced previously were associated with a decrease in the risk of falling. Intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs) showed that although most of the variation resided at the start (level 1), a proportion of variation in the risk of falling could be attributed to horse and race. Trainer and jockey contributed very little to the variation in the risk of falling.
Copyright 2002 Elsevier Science B.V.
Publication Date: 2002-10-18 PubMed ID: 12383654DOI: 10.1016/s0167-5877(02)00098-3Google Scholar: Lookup
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- Journal Article
- Research Support
- Non-U.S. Gov't
Summary
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The research article explores the various factors that contribute to the likelihood of horses falling during steeplechase races in the UK, and measures the extent of their impact.
Research Methodology
- The researchers used retrospective data from every single steeplechase run on UK racecourses in 1999. The dataset encompassed 10,866 starts and 647 cases of horse falls.
- The relationship between continuous variables and instances of falling was evaluated using generalised additive models (GAMs).
- Subsequently, polynomial fits were integrated into a multilevel, multivariable logistic-regression model for a more comprehensive statistical analysis.
Key Findings
- The study found a linear, positive association between the number of runners in a race and the risk of falling. This means that as the number of competing horses increased, so did the chances of a horse falling.
- The race distance was associated with a non-linear relationship with the risk of falling. The risk escalated in races up to 23 furlongs and declined in longer races.
- The age of the horse significantly influenced the falling risk in a non-linear manner. Risk lowered up to 12 years of age, after which older horses experienced an increasing falling risk.
- The use of visors and previous racing experience correlated with a decline in the risk of falling.
Variations in Falling Risk
- Intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs) were used to determine where the majority of the variation in risk resided. The results showed that most variations occurred at the start of a race.
- A certain degree of variation in the falling risk could be traced back to individual characteristics of the horse and the specific race conditions.
- Contrary to expectation, the trainer and jockey have minimal contribution to the variation in the risk of falling.
Overall, the research offers valuable insights into the elements contributing to horse falls in steeplechase racing, and provides practical implications for reducing these occurrences.
Cite This Article
APA
Pinchbeck GL, Clegg PD, Proudman CJ, Morgan KL, Wood JL, French NP.
(2002).
Risk factors and sources of variation in horse falls in steeplechase racing in the UK.
Prev Vet Med, 55(3), 179-192.
https://doi.org/10.1016/s0167-5877(02)00098-3 Publication
Researcher Affiliations
- Epidemiology Group, Department of Veterinary Clinical Science and Animal Husbandry, University of Liverpool, Chester High Road, Leahurst, Neston CH64 7TE, South Wirral, UK. ginap@liv.ac.uk
MeSH Terms
- Accidental Falls / statistics & numerical data
- Age Factors
- Animals
- Female
- Horses / physiology
- Logistic Models
- Male
- Odds Ratio
- Risk Factors
- Sports
- United Kingdom
- Weight-Bearing
Citations
This article has been cited 4 times.- Paul SC, Stevens M. Horse vision and obstacle visibility in horseracing. Appl Anim Behav Sci 2020 Jan;222:104882.
- Ruse K, Davison A, Bridle K. Jump Horse Safety: Reconciling Public Debate and Australian Thoroughbred Jump Racing Data, 2012-2014. Animals (Basel) 2015 Oct 22;5(4):1072-91.
- Pinchbeck GL, Clegg PD, Boyde A, Barr ED, Riggs CM. Horse-, training- and race-level risk factors for palmar/plantar osteochondral disease in the racing Thoroughbred. Equine Vet J 2013 Sep;45(5):582-6.
- Jeppesen A, Eyers R, Evans D, Ward MP, Quain A. Comparison of Reported Fatalities, Falls and Injuries in Thoroughbred Horse Jumps and Flat Races in the 2022 and 2023 Jumps Race Seasons in Victoria, Australia. Animals (Basel) 2024 Mar 5;14(5).
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