Simulation of the seasonal cycles of bird, equine and human West Nile virus cases.
Abstract: The West Nile virus (WNV) is an arthropod-borne virus (arbovirus) circulating in a natural transmission cycle between mosquitoes (enzootic vectors) and birds (amplifying hosts). Additionally, mainly horses and humans (dead-end hosts) may be infected by blood-feeding mosquitoes (bridge vectors). We developed an epidemic model for the simulation of the WNV dynamics of birds, horses and humans in the U.S., which we apply to the Minneapolis metropolitan area (Minnesota). The SEIR-type model comprises a total of 19 compartments, that are 4 compartments for mosquitoes and 5 compartments or health states for each of the 3 host species. It is the first WNV model that simulates the seasonal cycle by explicitly considering the environmental temperature. The latter determines model parameters responsible for the population dynamics of the mosquitoes and the extrinsic incubation period. Once initialized, our WNV model runs for the entire period 2002-2009, exclusively forced by environmental temperature. Simulated incidences are mainly determined by host and vector population dynamics, virus transmission and herd immunity, respectively. We adjusted our WNV model to fit monthly totals of reported bird, equine and human cases in the Minneapolis metropolitan area. From this process we estimated that the proportion of actually WNV-induced dead birds reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is about 0.8%, whereas 7.3% of equine and 10.7% of human cases were reported. This is consistent with referenced expert opinions whereby about 10% of equine and human cases are symptomatic (the other 90% of asymptomatic cases are usually not reported). Despite the restricted completeness of surveillance data and field observations, all major peaks in the observed time series were caught by the simulations. Correlation coefficients between observed and simulated time series were R=0.75 for dead birds, R=0.96 for symptomatic equine cases and R=0.86 for human neuroinvasive cases, respectively.
Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Publication Date: 2010-11-20 PubMed ID: 21093946DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.10.013Google Scholar: Lookup
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- Journal Article
- Arboviruses
- Diagnosis
- Disease control
- Disease Diagnosis
- Disease Etiology
- Disease Management
- Disease Outbreaks
- Disease Prevalence
- Disease Surveillance
- Disease Transmission
- Disease Treatment
- Environmental Stressors
- Epidemiology
- Equine Health
- Horses
- Infectious Disease
- Mosquito-borne Diseases
- Public Health
- Vector-borne disease
- West Nile Virus
- Zoonotic Diseases
Summary
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This study presents a model for simulating the dynamics of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission among birds, horses, and humans in the Minneapolis region of the United States. The model, which takes environmental temperature into account, was used to analyze data from 2002 to 2009.
Study Objective
- The primary objective of this research is to build a model capable of simulating the transmission dynamics of the West Nile Virus (WNV). Notably, this model considers the effects of environmental temperature on the transmission cycle of the virus. This is vital as environmental temperature influences the population dynamics of mosquitoes (the vector responsible for virus transmission) and the virus’s extrinsic incubation period (the time it takes for the virus to reproduce in the mosquito before it can be transmitted).
Research Methodology
- A total of 19 compartments, divided into categories of mosquitoes, birds, horses, and humans, are included in the epidemic model of the WNV, which operates on an SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) model basis.
- The model was then used to run simulations for the period between 2002 and 2009, with environmental temperature as the controlling parameter.
- The model parameters were adjusted to fit the monthly reported cases of bird, horse, and human WNV cases in the Minneapolis metropolitan area.
Key Findings
- This model is the first one to integrate the effects of seasonal temperature variation into WNV transmission simulations.
- The researchers deduced that, out of all WNV-induced bird deaths, approximately 0.8% were reported. The figures were slightly higher for horses and humans, with 7.3% and 10.7% of cases respectively reported. These findings are consistent with previous studies that suggest around 90% of WNV cases in horses and humans are asymptomatic and usually go unreported.
- Despite the limitations with data completeness, the simulated results closely matched the actual data with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.75 to 0.96 for different host species.
Cite This Article
APA
Laperriere V, Brugger K, Rubel F.
(2010).
Simulation of the seasonal cycles of bird, equine and human West Nile virus cases.
Prev Vet Med, 98(2-3), 99-110.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.10.013 Publication
Researcher Affiliations
- Institute for Veterinary Public Health, University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna, Veterinärplatz 1, A-1210 Vienna, Austria.
MeSH Terms
- Animals
- Birds
- Computer Simulation
- Culicidae / virology
- Disease Outbreaks / veterinary
- Horses
- Host-Parasite Interactions
- Humans
- Insect Vectors / virology
- Models, Biological
- Population Dynamics
- Seasons
- Species Specificity
- Temperature
- West Nile Fever / epidemiology
- West Nile Fever / transmission
- West Nile Fever / veterinary
- West Nile virus / growth & development
- Zoonoses
Citations
This article has been cited 14 times.- Bakran-Lebl K, Kjær LJ, Conrady B. Predicting Culex pipiens/restuans Population Dynamics Using a Weather-Driven Dynamic Compartmental Population Model.. Insects 2023 Mar 17;14(3).
- Bekele BK, Uwishema O, Nazir A, Kaushik I, Wellington J. Addressing the challenges of prevention and control of West Nile virus in Africa: A correspondence.. Int J Surg 2023 Feb 1;109(2):186-188.
- Angelou A, Kioutsioukis I, Stilianakis NI. A climate-dependent spatial epidemiological model for the transmission risk of West Nile virus at local scale.. One Health 2021 Dec;13:100330.
- Habarugira G, Suen WW, Hobson-Peters J, Hall RA, Bielefeldt-Ohmann H. West Nile Virus: An Update on Pathobiology, Epidemiology, Diagnostics, Control and "One Health" Implications.. Pathogens 2020 Jul 19;9(7).
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- Ciota AT, Keyel AC. The Role of Temperature in Transmission of Zoonotic Arboviruses.. Viruses 2019 Nov 1;11(11).
- Chesnut M, Muñoz LS, Harris G, Freeman D, Gama L, Pardo CA, Pamies D. In vitro and in silico Models to Study Mosquito-Borne Flavivirus Neuropathogenesis, Prevention, and Treatment.. Front Cell Infect Microbiol 2019;9:223.
- Taghikhani R, Gumel AB. Mathematics of dengue transmission dynamics: Roles of vector vertical transmission and temperature fluctuations.. Infect Dis Model 2018;3:266-292.
- Tambo E, Khayeka-Wandabwa C, Olalubi OA, Adedeji AA, Ngogang JY, Khater EI. Addressing knowledge gaps in molecular, sero-surveillance and monitoring approaches on Zika epidemics and other arbovirus co-infections: A structured review.. Parasite Epidemiol Control 2017 May;2(2):50-60.
- Tambo E, Madjou G, Khayeka-Wandabwa C, Olalubi OA, Chengho CF, Khater EIM. Ethical, legal and societal considerations on Zika virus epidemics complications in scaling-up prevention and control strategies.. Philos Ethics Humanit Med 2017 Aug 25;12(1):3.
- Brugger K, Köfer J, Rubel F. Outdoor and indoor monitoring of livestock-associated Culicoides spp. to assess vector-free periods and disease risks.. BMC Vet Res 2016 Jun 4;12:88.
- Conte A, Candeloro L, Ippoliti C, Monaco F, De Massis F, Bruno R, Di Sabatino D, Danzetta ML, Benjelloun A, Belkadi B, El Harrak M, Declich S, Rizzo C, Hammami S, Ben Hassine T, Calistri P, Savini G. Spatio-Temporal Identification of Areas Suitable for West Nile Disease in the Mediterranean Basin and Central Europe.. PLoS One 2015;10(12):e0146024.
- Suen WW, Prow NA, Hall RA, Bielefeldt-Ohmann H. Mechanism of West Nile virus neuroinvasion: a critical appraisal.. Viruses 2014 Jul 18;6(7):2796-825.
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