Spatio-temporal analysis and visualisation of the anthrax epidemic situation in livestock in Kazakhstan over the period 1933-2016.

The research article details an analysis of the anthrax epidemic in livestock in Kazakhstan from 1933-2016, identifying peaks and declines in outbreaks, and associating them with changes in economic activity and veterinary surveillance.

Objective of Study

• The study aimed to analyze the anthrax epidemic among livestock animals in Kazakhstan from 1933-2016, accounting for 4,064 outbreaks during this period.
• The researchers aimed to identify patterns in the incidence of the disease and associate these trends with changes in economic activity and veterinary surveillance.

Methods Used

• The spatio-temporal analysis using a space-time cube was employed to determine the presence of hotspots, or areas of outbreak clustering, and observe the trends of their emergence over time.
• A linear regression model was used to calculate the annual numbers of outbreaks as a function of time. This enabled the researchers to identify periods of increase and decrease in the incidence of the disease.

Key Findings

• The study identified five historical periods of increase and decrease in the annual anthrax incidence: 1933-1953; 1954-1968; 1969-1983; 1984- 2001; and 2002-2016.
• Increased trends were noted during the first two periods, followed by a decreasing trend.
• Peak years of anthrax outbreaks occurred between 1965 and 1968.
• Outbreaks are still ongoing, with an average annual number of outbreaks of 1.2 (with a 95% confidence interval: 0.6-1.8).

Implications of Study

• The space-time analysis approach has enabled the visualization of areas with statistically significant increasing or decreasing trends of outbreak clustering.
• This information can potentially be used to inform decision-makers, allowing veterinary services to concentrate their resources and efforts on monitoring possible risk factors in identified locations.