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Spatio-temporal analysis and visualisation of the anthrax epidemic situation in livestock in Kazakhstan over the period 1933-2016.
Abstract: An analysis of the anthrax epidemic situation among livestock animals in the Republic of Kazakhstan over the period 1933-2016 is presented. During this time, 4,064 anthrax outbreaks (mainly in cattle, small ruminants, pigs and horses) were recorded. They fall into five historical periods of increase and decrease in the annual anthrax incidence (1933-1953; 1954-1968; 1969-1983; 1984- 2001; and 2002-2016), which has been associated with changes in economic activity and veterinary surveillance. To evaluate the temporal trends of incidence variation for each of these time periods, the following methods were applied: i) spatio-temporal analysis using a space-time cube to assess the presence of hotspots (i.e., areas of outbreak clustering) and the trends of their emergence over time; and ii) a linear regression model that was used to evaluate the annual numbers of outbreaks as a function of time. The results show increasing trends during the first two periods followed by a decreasing trend up to now. The peak years of anthrax outbreaks occurred in 1965-1968 but outbreaks still continue with an average annual number of outbreaks of 1.2 (95% confidence interval: 0.6-1.8). The space-time analysis approach enabled visualisation of areas with statistically significant increasing or decreasing trends of outbreak clustering providing a practical opportunity to inform decision-makers and allowing the veterinary services to concentrate their efforts on monitoring the possible risk factors in the identified locations.
Publication Date: 2017-11-13 PubMed ID: 29239565DOI: 10.4081/gh.2017.589Google Scholar: Lookup The Equine Research Bank provides access to a large database of publicly available scientific literature. Inclusion in the Research Bank does not imply endorsement of study methods or findings by Mad Barn.
- Journal Article
- Animal Health
- Animal Science
- Animal Species
- Animal Studies
- Diagnosis
- Disease control
- Disease Diagnosis
- Disease Etiology
- Disease Management
- Disease Outbreaks
- Disease Prevalence
- Disease Surveillance
- Disease Treatment
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Disease
- Livestock
- Public Health
- Veterinary Care
- Veterinary Medicine
- Veterinary Research
- Veterinary Science
Summary
This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.
The research article details an analysis of the anthrax epidemic in livestock in Kazakhstan from 1933-2016, identifying peaks and declines in outbreaks, and associating them with changes in economic activity and veterinary surveillance.
Objective of Study
- The study aimed to analyze the anthrax epidemic among livestock animals in Kazakhstan from 1933-2016, accounting for 4,064 outbreaks during this period.
- The researchers aimed to identify patterns in the incidence of the disease and associate these trends with changes in economic activity and veterinary surveillance.
Methods Used
- The spatio-temporal analysis using a space-time cube was employed to determine the presence of hotspots, or areas of outbreak clustering, and observe the trends of their emergence over time.
- A linear regression model was used to calculate the annual numbers of outbreaks as a function of time. This enabled the researchers to identify periods of increase and decrease in the incidence of the disease.
Key Findings
- The study identified five historical periods of increase and decrease in the annual anthrax incidence: 1933-1953; 1954-1968; 1969-1983; 1984- 2001; and 2002-2016.
- Increased trends were noted during the first two periods, followed by a decreasing trend.
- Peak years of anthrax outbreaks occurred between 1965 and 1968.
- Outbreaks are still ongoing, with an average annual number of outbreaks of 1.2 (with a 95% confidence interval: 0.6-1.8).
Implications of Study
- The space-time analysis approach has enabled the visualization of areas with statistically significant increasing or decreasing trends of outbreak clustering.
- This information can potentially be used to inform decision-makers, allowing veterinary services to concentrate their resources and efforts on monitoring possible risk factors in identified locations.
Cite This Article
APA
Abdrakhmanov SK, Mukhanbetkaliyev YY, Korennoy FI, Karatayev BS, Mukhanbetkaliyeva AA, Abdrakhmanova AS.
(2017).
Spatio-temporal analysis and visualisation of the anthrax epidemic situation in livestock in Kazakhstan over the period 1933-2016.
Geospat Health, 12(2), 589.
https://doi.org/10.4081/gh.2017.589 Publication
Researcher Affiliations
- S. Seifullin Kazakh Agrotechnical University, Astana. s_abdrakhmanov@mail.ru.
MeSH Terms
- Animals
- Anthrax / veterinary
- Cattle
- Disease Outbreaks / veterinary
- Epidemics
- Horses
- Humans
- Incidence
- Kazakhstan / epidemiology
- Linear Models
- Livestock / microbiology
- Risk Factors
- Spatio-Temporal Analysis
- Swine
Citations
This article has been cited 7 times.- Mukhanbetkaliyev YY, Kadyrov AS, Berdikulov MA, Mukhanbetkaliyeva AA, Kadyrov AS, Zhanabayev AA, Korennoy FI, Perez AM, Abdrakhmanov SK. The virgin lands campaign and the occurrence of foot-and-mouth disease and anthrax in the Republic of Kazakhstan (1955-1970). Front Vet Sci 2025;12:1549307.
- Kulpiisova A, Aitpayeva Z, Maimatayeva A, Ussenova L, Paritova A, Zhanabayev A, Bakishev T, Tursunkulov S, Kitapbay T, Abutalip A, Mussayeva A, Ospanov Y, Omarbekova U, Turalin B, Sapa V, Aisin M, Bizhanov A, Baikadamova G, Chylbak-Ool S, Pakhomova E, Rametov N, Issimov A, Burambayeva N. Knowledge, attitude and practice related to anthrax among livestock farmers in West Kazakhstan. Vet Med Sci 2024 Sep;10(5):e1553.
- De Cos Guerra O, Castillo Salcines V, Cantarero Prieto D. Are spatial patterns of Covid-19 changing? Spatiotemporal analysis over four waves in the region of Cantabria, Spain. Trans GIS 2022 Jun;26(4):1981-2003.
- Ogneva-Himmelberger Y, Haynes M. Using space-time cube to analyze trends in adverse birth outcomes and maternal characteristics in Massachusetts, USA. GeoJournal 2022;87(4):2491-2504.
- Lepheana RJ, Oguttu JW, Qekwana DN. Spatial Patterns of Anthrax Outbreaks and Cases among Livestock in Lesotho, 2005-2016. Int J Environ Res Public Health 2020 Oct 19;17(20).
- Nielsen CC, Amrhein CG, Shah PS, Aziz K, Osornio-Vargas AR. Spatiotemporal Patterns of Small for Gestational Age and Low Birth Weight Births and Associations With Land Use and Socioeconomic Status. Environ Health Insights 2019;13:1178630219869922.
- Kanankege KST, Abdrakhmanov SK, Alvarez J, Glaser L, Bender JB, Mukhanbetkaliyev YY, Korennoy FI, Kadyrov AS, Abdrakhmanova AS, Perez AM. Comparison of spatiotemporal patterns of historic natural Anthrax outbreaks in Minnesota and Kazakhstan. PLoS One 2019;14(5):e0217144.
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