The effects of strain heterology on the epidemiology of equine influenza in a vaccinated population.
Abstract: We assess the effects of strain heterology (strains that are immunologically similar but not identical) on equine influenza in a vaccinated population. Using data relating to individual animals, for both homologous and heterologous vaccinees, we estimate distributions for the latent and infectious periods, quantify the risk of becoming infected in terms of the quantity of cross-reactive antibodies to a key surface protein of the virus (haemagglutinin) and estimate the probability of excreting virus (i.e. becoming infectious) given that infection has occurred. The data suggest that the infectious period, the risk of becoming infected (for a given vaccine-induced level of cross-reactive antibodies) and the probability of excreting virus are increased for heterologously vaccinated animals when compared with homologously vaccinated animals. The data are used to parameterize a modified susceptible, exposed, infectious and recovered/resistant (SEIR) model, which shows that these relatively small differences combine to have a large effect at the population level, where populations of heterologous vaccinees face a significantly increased risk of an epidemic occurring.
Copyright 2004 The Royal Society
Publication Date: 2004-08-13 PubMed ID: 15306299PubMed Central: PMC1691760DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2004.2766Google Scholar: Lookup
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- Comparative Study
- Journal Article
- Research Support
- Non-U.S. Gov't
Summary
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This research examines the impact of different but immunologically similar strains of virus on horse influenza in a population that has been vaccinated. The findings suggest that horses vaccinated with a slightly different strain (heterologous) from the one causing the infection are at a higher risk of getting infected and spreading the virus compared to those vaccinated with the identical strain (homologous).
Study Methodology and Findings
- The researchers gathered data on individual animals which had been vaccinated either with the identical strain (homologous) or a similar but not identical strain (heterologous) of the virus.
- They utilized this data to estimate the length of the latent and infectious periods, which are timeframes during which an animal can carry and transmit the virus.
- The study further quantified the risk of infection by evaluating the amount of cross-reactive antibodies to haemagglutinin, which is a surface protein crucial in the virus’s ability to infect a host.
- They also gauged the likelihood of a horse excreting or shedding the virus, thus becoming infectious, once infected.
- Findings indicated that horses vaccinated heterologously exhibited longer infectious periods, showed greater chances of getting infected, and were more likely to excrete the virus compared to those vaccinated homologously.
Population-Level Impact
- The researchers integrated the acquired data into a modified SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered/Resistant) model, a standard epidemiological model used to chart the progress of an infectious disease.
- Despite the observed differences between homologously and heterologously vaccinated horses appearing relatively small, the model demonstrated that these differences could cumulatively result in considerably larger effects at the population level.
- Specifically, populations comprising heterologously vaccinated horses faced a significantly greater risk of facing an epidemic compared to populations with homologously vaccinated horses.
Implications of the Study
- This research underscores the importance of strain homology in vaccination strategies against equine influenza.
- It also highlights the need to closely monitor potential divergence in virus strains to ensure maximum possible effectiveness of the vaccines used in a population.
Cite This Article
APA
Park AW, Wood JL, Daly JM, Newton JR, Glass K, Henley W, Mumford JA, Grenfell BT.
(2004).
The effects of strain heterology on the epidemiology of equine influenza in a vaccinated population.
Proc Biol Sci, 271(1548), 1547-1555.
https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2004.2766 Publication
Researcher Affiliations
- Animal Health Trust, Lanwades Park, Kentford, Newmarket CB8 7UU, UK. awp@mathstat.yorku.ca
MeSH Terms
- Animals
- Antibodies, Viral / immunology
- Antigens, Heterophile / immunology
- Computer Simulation
- Cross Reactions / immunology
- Hemagglutinin Glycoproteins, Influenza Virus / immunology
- Horse Diseases / epidemiology
- Horse Diseases / immunology
- Horse Diseases / prevention & control
- Horse Diseases / virology
- Horses
- Influenza A virus / immunology
- Models, Immunological
- Monte Carlo Method
- Orthomyxoviridae Infections / epidemiology
- Orthomyxoviridae Infections / immunology
- Orthomyxoviridae Infections / prevention & control
- Orthomyxoviridae Infections / veterinary
- Risk Assessment
- Species Specificity
- Vaccination / veterinary
Grant Funding
- BB/B524092/1 / Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
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