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Scientific reports2025; 15(1); 23819; doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-04804-9

The reemergence of the New World screwworm and its potential distribution in North America.

Abstract: The reemergence of the New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) poses a significant threat to animal and public health with minimal regulatory oversight. This study analyzes the potential distribution and reemergence of this pest, which is endemic to South America but was previously eradicated in North America. We first developed bioclimatic suitability models, and then incorporated these findings along with reemergence records and inspection point data to simulate possible dispersal routes into Mexico and the United States. Our results document the historical distribution of C. hominivorax across the Americas and recent reemergence events in Panama (2023) and Mexico (2024-2025). Findings indicate high invasion potential from Central America, with significant risk along Mexico's Pacific and Atlantic coasts and the Yucatan Peninsula. In the United States, Texas and Florida face the highest risk. Regions with high livestock density in both countries demonstrate considerable climatic suitability for the pest. Our simulations identify Chiapas, Campeche, Tabasco, and Veracruz as critical northern dispersal points. The invadable areas contain substantial populations of domestic hosts, primarily cattle and horses. These findings will enable governmental authorities to develop comprehensive prevention and control strategies to address this emerging threat.
© 2025. The Author(s).
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Publication Date: 2025-07-03 PubMed ID: 40610581PubMed Central: PMC12229696DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-04804-9Google Scholar: Lookup
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Summary

This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.

Overview

  • This study investigates the resurgence of the New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax), a pest once eradicated in North America but now reemerging and threatening animal and public health.
  • The research models its potential distribution and dispersal routes to inform prevention and control efforts in Mexico and the United States.

Background

  • New World Screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax): A parasitic fly native to South America that infests wounds in warm-blooded animals, causing severe tissue damage and economic losses in livestock.
  • Eradication History: Previously eradicated from North America through extensive programs, but recent reports indicate its return in Central America and Mexico.
  • Health and Economic Impact: Poses significant risks to animal welfare, public health, and livestock industries if it spreads unchecked.

Research Objectives

  • Assess the current and potential geographic distribution of the New World screwworm in North America.
  • Identify areas at greatest risk of invasion and reemergence based on climate, host availability, and dispersal pathways.
  • Provide actionable insights to guide surveillance, prevention, and mitigation strategies by authorities.

Methodology

  • Bioclimatic Suitability Modeling: Developed models to predict regions where climate conditions would support the survival and reproduction of the screwworm.
  • Incorporation of Reemergence Data: Integrated recent confirmed sightings and collections of the pest in Panama (2023) and Mexico (2024-2025).
  • Inspection Point Data: Used pest interception records at border inspection points to simulate and identify potential dispersal routes.
  • Simulation of Dispersal Routes: Modeled possible pathways the screwworm could follow entering and spreading through Mexico and the United States.

Key Findings

  • Historical and Recent Distribution: The screwworm’s native range includes South America; recent outbreaks in Panama and Mexico highlight its northward movement.
  • High-Risk Regions in Mexico: Pacific and Atlantic coastal areas, as well as the Yucatan Peninsula, demonstrated high climatic suitability and likely serve as entry points.
  • Critical Northern Dispersal Points: States such as Chiapas, Campeche, Tabasco, and Veracruz identified as important gateways for northward spread.
  • Risk in the United States: Texas and Florida are the most vulnerable due to climate suitability and presence of abundant livestock hosts.
  • Livestock Density Correlation: The invadable regions overlap with areas having significant populations of cattle and horses, which serve as primary hosts.

Implications and Recommendations

  • Threat Recognition: The reemergence signals an urgent need for heightened awareness and regulatory attention.
  • Prevention Strategies: Authorities should prioritize surveillance in identified high-risk zones and border inspection points to detect and respond rapidly.
  • Control Measures: Development and deployment of targeted pest management, including sterile insect techniques and animal wound management, especially in livestock dense areas.
  • Cross-Border Collaboration: Essential to coordinate efforts between South, Central, and North American countries to monitor pest movement and implement synchronized control.
  • Research Utility: The models and simulations provide a strategic framework to allocate resources effectively and limit the screwworm’s spread before significant damage occurs.

Cite This Article

APA
Valdez-Espinoza UM, Fadda LA, Marques R, Osorio-Olvera L, Jiménez-García D, Lira-Noriega A. (2025). The reemergence of the New World screwworm and its potential distribution in North America. Sci Rep, 15(1), 23819. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-04804-9

Publication

Scientific reports
ISSN: 2045-2322
NlmUniqueID: 101563288
Country: England
Language: English
Volume: 15
Issue: 1
Pages: 23819
PII: 23819

Researcher Affiliations

Valdez-Espinoza, Uriel Mauricio
  • Red de Estudios Moleculares Avanzados, Instituto de Ecología A. C., Carretera antigua a Coatepec 351, El Haya, Xalapa, C. P. 91073, Veracruz, México.
  • Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias, Centro Nacional de Investigación Disciplinaria en Salud Animal e Inocuidad, Carretera Federal Cuernavaca - Cuautla No. 8534, Colonia Progreso, Jiutepec, C.P. 62574, Morelos, México.
Fadda, Lucas A
  • Red de Estudios Moleculares Avanzados, Instituto de Ecología A. C., Carretera antigua a Coatepec 351, El Haya, Xalapa, C. P. 91073, Veracruz, México.
  • Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias, Centro de Investigación Regional Golfo Centro, Campo Experimental Cotaxtla, Km 34.5, Carretera Veracruz-Córdoba, Veracruz, C.P. 94270, México.
Marques, Roberta
  • Laboratorio de Biodiversidad, Centro de Agroecología y Ambiente, Instituto de Ciencias, Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla, Edificio Val. 1, Km 1.7 carretera a San Baltazar Tetela, San Pedro Zacachimalpa, Puebla, C.P. 72960, Puebla, México.
Osorio-Olvera, Luis
  • Laboratorio de Ecoinformática de la Biodiversidad, Departamento de Ecología de la Biodiversidad, Instituto de Ecología, Unidad Mérida, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, 04510 Mérida, Yucatán, México.
  • Laboratorio Nacional SECIHTI de Biología del Cambio Climático, Ciudad de México, México.
Jiménez-García, Daniel
  • Laboratorio de Biodiversidad, Centro de Agroecología y Ambiente, Instituto de Ciencias, Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla, Edificio Val. 1, Km 1.7 carretera a San Baltazar Tetela, San Pedro Zacachimalpa, Puebla, C.P. 72960, Puebla, México. daniel.jimenez@correo.buap.mx.
  • Laboratorio Nacional SECIHTI de Biología del Cambio Climático, Ciudad de México, México. daniel.jimenez@correo.buap.mx.
Lira-Noriega, Andrés
  • Secihti Research Fellow, Red de Estudios Moleculares Avanzados, Instituto de Ecología A. C., Carretera antigua a Coatepec 351, El Haya, Xalapa, C. P. 91073, Veracruz, México. aliranoriega@gmail.com.

MeSH Terms

  • Animals
  • North America / epidemiology
  • Cattle
  • Mexico
  • United States
  • Diptera

Conflict of Interest Statement

Declarations. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests. Additional information: All supplementary information is available in the Zenodo repository ( https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15465751 ).

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    doi: 10.1186/s40794-025-00274-zpubmed: 41102843google scholar: lookup
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