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Home / Equine Research Bank / Equine Vet J / Using time-series analysis techniques to enhance the underst...
Equine veterinary journal2020; 52(5); 699-708; doi: 10.1111/evj.13220

Using time-series analysis techniques to enhance the understanding of musculoskeletal injury in Thoroughbred racehorses.

Abstract: Many racing jurisdictions monitor race-day musculoskeletal injury (MSI) but fail to evaluate injuries occurring during training. Additionally, previous risk factor analyses have failed to explore temporal trends in injury occurrence. Objective: To use time-series analysis techniques to identify trends, cyclicity and peaks in MSI incidence, in racehorses training and racing at the Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC) from July 2010 to June 2018. Methods: Retrospective longitudinal study. Methods: The monthly incidence of all MSI, superficial digital flexor tendon (SDFT) injury, suspensory ligament injury and appendicular skeletal fracture occurring in training and racing were collected from veterinary records. The number of horses in training was collated monthly from trainer records. Time-series analysis techniques were used to describe trends and cyclical patterns for injury types. For each injury, incidence risks above the 90th percentile were identified as peaks in incidence. Results: A total of 1471 injuries were recorded over eight racing seasons; 605 fractures (41.1%), 550 SDFT injuries (37.4%), and 316 suspensory ligament injuries (21.5%). Evidence of seasonality was detected in fracture incidence risk; increasing from October (median 0.25 per 1000 horses) until May (median 0.71 per 1000 horses), coinciding with the racing season (ending mid-July). Elevated incidence of MSI occurred throughout 2012; however, the greatest incidence risks of SDFT (14.8 per 1000 horses) and fracture (1.3 per 1000 horses) occurred since 2017. Conclusions: Monthly (opposed to daily) incidence risk of injury reduced the resolution of the data. Additionally, fracture was not described according to bone or fracture type, which may have confounded overall trends. Conclusions: Evidence for seasonal variation in the incidence of fracture occurrence has been demonstrated. Based on using time-series techniques, further epidemiological studies, retrospectively targeting periods of high peaks in injury incidence risk could be used to aid identification of risk factors for injury.
© 2019 EVJ Ltd.
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Publication Date: 2020-02-18 PubMed ID: 31811658DOI: 10.1111/evj.13220Google Scholar: Lookup
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Summary

This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.

This research explores the incidence of musculoskeletal injury in Thoroughbred racehorses over eight years at the Hong Kong Jockey Club. The study used a method called time-series analysis to understand patterns and trends of injuries during both training and racing events. The risk of different injuries was seasonally variable and could occur at specific high-risk periods.

Methods

  • The study is retrospective and longitudinal, meaning it looks back at existing data over a long period.
  • Data was gathered from veterinary records on the monthly incidence of all musculoskeletal injuries, with specific focus on injuries like superficial digital flexor tendon (SDFT) injury, suspensory ligament injury, and skeletal fractures.
  • The study also included data collected monthly from trainer records about the number of horses in training.
  • Time-series analysis was used to identify any trends or cyclical patterns in the incidence of these injuries. Peaks in injury occurrence were identified when incidence risks exceeded the 90th percentile.

Results

  • Throughout the study, a total of 1471 injuries were recorded which included 605 fractures, 550 SDFT injuries, and 316 suspensory ligament injuries.
  • There was a seasonal trend in the incidence of fractures, increasing from October until May, which corresponds with the racing season.
  • The year 2012 saw a high incidence of musculoskeletal injuries. The highest risk periods for SDFT and fracture injuries occurred after 2017.

Conclusions

  • Considering the injuries on monthly instead of daily scale reduced the resolution of the data, possibly missing smaller variations in injury incidence.
  • Another limitation was that fractures were not categorized by type or location, which could confound the overall trends.
  • The research revealed a seasonal pattern in the incidence of fractures in racehorses. This evidence can guide further epidemiological studies to identify risk factors for injury during high-risk periods.

Cite This Article

APA
Johnston AS, Riggs CM, Cogger N, Benschop J, Rogers CW, Rosanowski SM. (2020). Using time-series analysis techniques to enhance the understanding of musculoskeletal injury in Thoroughbred racehorses. Equine Vet J, 52(5), 699-708. https://doi.org/10.1111/evj.13220

Publication

Equine veterinary journal
ISSN: 2042-3306
NlmUniqueID: 0173320
Country: United States
Language: English
Volume: 52
Issue: 5
Pages: 699-708

Researcher Affiliations

Johnston, Anna S
  • Centre for Applied One Health Research and Policy Advice, Jockey Club College of Veterinary Medicine and Life Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR.
Riggs, Christopher M
  • Department of Veterinary Clinical Services, Hong Kong Jockey Club, Hong Kong, China.
Cogger, Naomi
  • School of Veterinary Science, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand.
Benschop, Jackie
  • School of Veterinary Science, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand.
Rogers, Chris W
  • School of Veterinary Science, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand.
  • School of Agriculture and Environment, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand.
Rosanowski, Sarah M
  • Centre for Applied One Health Research and Policy Advice, Jockey Club College of Veterinary Medicine and Life Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR.

MeSH Terms

  • Animals
  • Hong Kong
  • Horse Diseases
  • Horses
  • Longitudinal Studies
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Factors
  • Sports

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Citations

This article has been cited 4 times.
  1. Crawford KL, Finnane A, Greer RM, Phillips CJC, Bishop EL, Woldeyohannes SM, Perkins NR, Ahern BJ. A Prospective Study of Training Methods for Two-Year-Old Thoroughbred Racehorses in Queensland, Australia, and Analysis of the Differences in Training Methods between Trainers of Varying Stable Sizes. Animals (Basel) 2021 Mar 25;11(4).
    doi: 10.3390/ani11040928pubmed: 33805873google scholar: lookup
  2. Palomino Lago E, Ross AKC, McClellan A, Guest DJ. Identification of a global gene expression signature associated with the genetic risk of catastrophic fracture in iPSC-derived osteoblasts from Thoroughbred horses. Anim Genet 2025 Feb;56(1):e13504.
    doi: 10.1111/age.13504pubmed: 39801206google scholar: lookup
  3. Guest DJ, Birch HL, Thorpe CT. A review of the equine suspensory ligament: Injury prone yet understudied. Equine Vet J 2025 Sep;57(5):1167-1182.
    doi: 10.1111/evj.14447pubmed: 39604165google scholar: lookup
  4. Carlier S, Depuydt E, Van Hecke L, Martens A, Saunders J, Spaas JH. Safety assessment of equine allogeneic tenogenic primed mesenchymal stem cells in horses with naturally occurring tendon and ligament injuries. Front Vet Sci 2024;11:1282697.
    doi: 10.3389/fvets.2024.1282697pubmed: 38468694google scholar: lookup
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