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Journal of the Royal Society, Interface2013; 10(83); 20130194; doi: 10.1098/rsif.2013.0194

Where are the horses? With the sheep or cows? Uncertain host location, vector-feeding preferences and the risk of African horse sickness transmission in Great Britain.

Abstract: Understanding the influence of non-susceptible hosts on vector-borne disease transmission is an important epidemiological problem. However, investigation of its impact can be complicated by uncertainty in the location of the hosts. Estimating the risk of transmission of African horse sickness (AHS) in Great Britain (GB), a virus transmitted by Culicoides biting midges, provides an insightful example because: (i) the patterns of risk are expected to be influenced by the presence of non-susceptible vertebrate hosts (cattle and sheep) and (ii) incomplete information on the spatial distribution of horses is available because the GB National Equine Database records owner, rather than horse, locations. Here, we combine land-use data with available horse owner distributions and, using a Bayesian approach, infer a realistic distribution for the location of horses. We estimate the risk of an outbreak of AHS in GB, using the basic reproduction number (R0), and demonstrate that mapping owner addresses as a proxy for horse location significantly underestimates the risk. We clarify the role of non-susceptible vertebrate hosts by showing that the risk of disease in the presence of many hosts (susceptible and non-susceptible) can be ultimately reduced to two fundamental factors: first, the abundance of vectors and how this depends on host density, and, second, the differential feeding preference of vectors among animal species.
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Publication Date: 2013-04-17 PubMed ID: 23594817PubMed Central: PMC3645429DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2013.0194Google Scholar: Lookup
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Summary

This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.

This research article attempts to assess the risk of transmission of African horse sickness (AHS) in Great Britain by estimating horse locations using land-use data and the distribution of horse owners, and factoring in the role of non-susceptible vertebrate hosts such as cattle and sheep. Results indicate that using owner addresses as a proxy for horse location can underestimate the risk of AHS transmission.

Understanding the Study

  • The study addresses the complex epidemiological issue of understanding the influence of non-susceptible hosts, in this case cattle and sheep, on the transmission of vector-borne diseases, exemplified here by African horse sickness (AHS).
  • The complexity is further heightened by uncertainty in the spatial distribution of the hosts, which is the horses in this case.
  • The backgrounds to this study are that, (i) the patterns of AHS risk in Great Britain are expected to influence due to non-susceptible hosts, and (ii) inaccurate information on horse distribution because the GB National Equine Database records the locations of horse owners and not the horses.

Methodology and Key Findings

  • The researchers used a combination of land-use data and the known distributions of horse owners to infer a more accurate distribution of horses in GB.
  • A Bayesian approach, which is a method of statistical inference, was used for the estimation.
  • Proponents then used the ‘basic reproduction number’ (R0), which is a term used in epidemiology to denote the expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population, to estimate AHS outbreak risks in Great Britain.
  • The study found that if the locations of the horse owners were used as proxies for the locations of the horses, the risk of AHS transmission would be significantly underestimated.
  • The role of the non-susceptible hosts, cattle and sheep, was elucidated, showing that the risk of the disease over many hosts, both susceptible and non-susceptible, could be boiled down to two factors- the abundance of vectors (the Culicoides biting midges) and the dependency of this abundance on host density, and the differential feeding preference of vectors among animal species.

Cite This Article

APA
Lo Iacono G, Robin CA, Newton JR, Gubbins S, Wood JL. (2013). Where are the horses? With the sheep or cows? Uncertain host location, vector-feeding preferences and the risk of African horse sickness transmission in Great Britain. J R Soc Interface, 10(83), 20130194. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2013.0194

Publication

Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
ISSN: 1742-5662
NlmUniqueID: 101217269
Country: England
Language: English
Volume: 10
Issue: 83
Pages: 20130194

Researcher Affiliations

Lo Iacono, Giovanni
  • Disease Dynamics Unit, Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK. gl334@cam.ac.uk
Robin, Charlotte A
    Newton, J Richard
      Gubbins, Simon
        Wood, James L N

          MeSH Terms

          • African Horse Sickness / epidemiology
          • African Horse Sickness / prevention & control
          • African Horse Sickness / transmission
          • Animals
          • Cattle / virology
          • Ceratopogonidae / physiology
          • Ceratopogonidae / virology
          • Communicable Disease Control
          • Feeding Behavior
          • Geography
          • Horses / virology
          • Insect Vectors / physiology
          • Insect Vectors / virology
          • Risk Factors
          • Seasons
          • Sheep / virology
          • United Kingdom / epidemiology
          • Vaccination / veterinary
          • Viral Vaccines / therapeutic use

          Grant Funding

          • Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council

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