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Scientific reports2024; 14(1); 28967; doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-79071-1

A machine learning approach to identify stride characteristics predictive of musculoskeletal injury, enforced rest and retirement in Thoroughbred racehorses.

Abstract: Decreasing speed and stride length over successive races have been shown to be associated with musculoskeletal injury (MSI) in racehorses, demonstrating the potential for early detection of MSI through longitudinal monitoring of changes in stride characteristics. A machine learning (ML) approach for early detection of MSI, enforced rest, and retirement events using this same horse-level, race-level, and stride characteristic data across all race sectionals was investigated. A CatBoost model using features from the two races prior to an event had the highest classification performance (sensitivity score for MSI, enforced rest and retirement equal to 0.00, 0.58, 0.76, respectively and balanced accuracy score corresponding to 0.44), with scores decreasing for models incorporating windows that included additional races further from the event. Feature importance analysis of ML models demonstrated that retirement was predicted by older age, poor performance, and longer racing career, enforced rest was predicted by younger age and better performance, but was less likely to occur when the stride length is increasing, and MSI predicted by increased number of starters, greater variation in speed and lower percentage of career time at rest. A relatively low classification performance highlights the difficulties in discerning MSI from alternate events using ML. Improved data recording through more thorough assessment and annotation of adverse events is expected to improve the predictability of MSI.
© 2024. The Author(s).
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Publication Date: 2024-11-22 PubMed ID: 39578597PubMed Central: PMC11584853DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-79071-1Google Scholar: Lookup
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  • Journal Article

Summary

This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.

The research used a machine learning model to predict musculoskeletal injuries, enforced rest, and retirement events in racehorses based on stride characteristics. The results showed that certain factors like speed, stride length, and racing history could predict these events to some extent, but the overall prediction performance was still low due to limitations in data recording.

Approach and Methodology

  • The researchers used a machine learning approach to study stride characteristics, and their change over time, in Thoroughbred racehorses.
  • Specifically, a CatBoost model was used to predict the occurrence of musculoskeletal injuries (MSI), enforced rest, and retirement events.
  • The model used features from two races prior to an event and aimed to predict these outcomes based on stride characteristics at the horseracing level.

Results

  • The model’s highest classification performance was obtained when using data from the two races just before an event (sensitivity score for MSI, enforced rest and retirement equal to 0.00, 0.58, 0.76, respectively).
  • In terms of feature importance, the likelihood of retirement increased with older age, poorer performance, and longer racing careers. Enforced rest was more likely in younger horses with better performance, but less likely when the stride length increased. Increased number of starters, greater variation in speed, and lower percentage of career time at rest were predictors for MSI.

Implications

  • The research highlights the potential of using machine learning to predict injuries and performance in racehorses, but also underscores the challenges in collecting and interpreting the necessary data.
  • The overall classification performance of the model was relatively low, suggesting that it is difficult to accurately predict MSI or other events in racehorses using only stride characteristics data.
  • The researchers suggested that more thorough data recording and the use of more comprehensive feature sets may help to improve the predictability of adverse events in racehorses.

Cite This Article

APA
Bogossian PM, Nattala U, Wong ASM, Morrice-West AV, Zhang GZ, Rana P, Whitton RC, Hitchens PL. (2024). A machine learning approach to identify stride characteristics predictive of musculoskeletal injury, enforced rest and retirement in Thoroughbred racehorses. Sci Rep, 14(1), 28967. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-79071-1

Publication

Scientific reports
ISSN: 2045-2322
NlmUniqueID: 101563288
Country: England
Language: English
Volume: 14
Issue: 1
Pages: 28967
PII: 28967

Researcher Affiliations

Bogossian, Paulo M
  • Veterinary School, City University of Sao Caetano Do Sul, 30 Santo Antonio St Sao Caetano Do Sul SP, São Caetano do Sul, Brazil.
  • Equine Centre, Melbourne Veterinary School, The University of Melbourne, 250 Princes Hwy Werribee, Melbourne, VIC, 3030, Australia.
Nattala, Usha
  • Melbourne Data Analytics Platform, The University of Melbourne, 700 Swanston Street, Carlton, VIC, 3053, Australia.
Wong, Adelene S M
  • Equine Centre, Melbourne Veterinary School, The University of Melbourne, 250 Princes Hwy Werribee, Melbourne, VIC, 3030, Australia.
Morrice-West, Ashleigh V
  • Equine Centre, Melbourne Veterinary School, The University of Melbourne, 250 Princes Hwy Werribee, Melbourne, VIC, 3030, Australia.
Zhang, Geordie Z
  • Melbourne Data Analytics Platform, The University of Melbourne, 700 Swanston Street, Carlton, VIC, 3053, Australia.
Rana, Pratibha
  • Melbourne Data Analytics Platform, The University of Melbourne, 700 Swanston Street, Carlton, VIC, 3053, Australia.
Whitton, R Chris
  • Equine Centre, Melbourne Veterinary School, The University of Melbourne, 250 Princes Hwy Werribee, Melbourne, VIC, 3030, Australia.
Hitchens, Peta L
  • Equine Centre, Melbourne Veterinary School, The University of Melbourne, 250 Princes Hwy Werribee, Melbourne, VIC, 3030, Australia. peta.hitchens@unimelb.edu.au.

MeSH Terms

  • Horses
  • Machine Learning
  • Animals
  • Rest / physiology
  • Running
  • Musculoskeletal Diseases / veterinary
  • Musculoskeletal System / injuries
  • Horse Diseases / diagnosis
  • Male

Conflict of Interest Statement

Declarations. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests. Ethical animal research: Data were sourced from existing collections of data and involved no direct work with animals. The Animal Ethics Committee at the University of Melbourne Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Science gave an exemption for formal ethics approval.

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Citations

This article has been cited 2 times.
  1. van den Broek M, Chan ZYS, De Bruyne C, Garcia-Alamo K, Skotarek Loch S, Pfau T. Association Between Stride Parameters and Racetrack Curvature for Thoroughbred Chuckwagon Horses. Sensors (Basel) 2025 Dec 4;25(23).
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  2. Pfau T, Forbes B, Sepulveda-Caviedes F, Chan Z, Weller R. Exploring Monthly Variation of Gait Asymmetry During In-Hand Trot in Thoroughbred Racehorses in Race Training. Animals (Basel) 2025 Aug 20;15(16).
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