Born to run? Racing and training outcomes, population dynamics and traceability of a Thoroughbred birth cohort.

Born to run? Racing and training outcomes, population dynamics and traceability of a Thoroughbred birth cohort investigates what happens to Thoroughbred horses born in the UK and Ireland regarding their training and racing careers, tracking their progress and outcomes until the age of four.

Objective of the Study

• To understand the proportion of Thoroughbred foals that enter training and race by the age of four.
• To track individual horses from birth to identify career milestones and reasons some horses may not progress in racing.
• To assess data gaps and traceability issues in the population of Thoroughbred horses born in the UK and Ireland.

Methods

• A birth cohort of Thoroughbred foals was set up on stud farms throughout the UK and Ireland.
• Data were collected prospectively from various sources, including:
  • Stud farm records.
  • Follow-up communication with horse owners.
  • Stud book and racing authorities’ databases.
  • Publicly available data sources like sales and export records.
• The follow-up focused on recording training status, race performances, sales, export destinations, and reasons why some horses did not achieve racing milestones by the end of their fourth year.

Key Findings

• Of the 262 foals that survived beyond their second year:
  • 94.7% (248/262) were registered with licensed trainers, indicating they entered training.
  • 79% (207/262) raced at least once before turning five.
• Only 8 horses’ fates or locations were unknown by the end of the study period, and all these horses had been sold as foals or yearlings.
• The study identified that horses exported out of the UK might be underreported in industry data, potentially missing from racing and training statistics.

Conclusions and Implications

• The proportion of foals progressing to training and competing in races is higher than previously suggested by broader industry statistics, which estimated about one-third do not enter training.
• The lower “wastage” rate (horses lost from the racing pipeline) indicates the industry may be more efficient than believed.
• Traceability gaps remain, particularly relating to horses sold and exported, which complicate accurate population tracking.
• The findings emphasize the dynamic nature of Thoroughbred populations, with sales and exports creating challenges in monitoring the full lifecycle of these horses.

Significance of the Study

• This study provides a more precise, individual-level understanding of Thoroughbred population dynamics compared to aggregate industry data.
• It offers insights for stakeholders such as breeders, trainers, and regulators to enhance transparency and decision-making regarding Thoroughbred racing careers.
• Improved tracking can help address animal welfare concerns and optimize breeding and training strategies.