Can Arterial Blood Gas, Electrolyte and Acid-Base Analysis at Admission be Used to Predict Survival to Hospital Discharge for Different Causes of Colic?
Abstract: Predicting outcome in horses presenting with colic remains challenging. Objective: To test whether arterial blood samples in horses admitted for colic predict outcome to hospital discharge for different colic types. Methods: Arterial blood samples collected on admission from 358 horses undergoing medical or surgical management of colic were evaluated for pH, PaO, PaCO, Na, K, iCa, Cl, HCO (P), HCO (P, set), Base (B), Base (ecf) and anion gap. Categories were small intestinal non-strangulating (SINS) or strangulating (SIS) lesions, large colon non-volvulus (LCNV) or volvulus (LCV), small colon non-strangulating (SCNS) or strangulating (SCS) lesions, viscus rupture or other. Multivariable logistic regression models were developed based on survival, or not, to hospital discharge. Odd ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) and area under the curve receiver operator characteristics (AUROC), sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive values were calculated at a cut-off value of p = 0.5. Results: A total of 295/358 (82.4%) horses survived to hospital discharge. Variables retained as significantly associated with survival were PaO for SINS (OR 1.15, 95%CI 1.04-1.27), PaO (OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.01-1.11) and Na (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.02-1.52) for SIS, Ca (OR 175.1, 95% CI 2.20-13958) and HCO (P) (OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.01-1.37) for LCNV and PaCO (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.05-2.06) for LCV. AUROCs showed acceptable-excellent discrimination (range: 0.7-0.9), excellent sensitivity (range: 91%-100%) but poor-fair specificity (range: 8%-50%). Conclusions: Arterial blood is good at predicting survival based on colic type but less accurate at predicting those horses which do not survive to hospital discharge.
© 2025 The Author(s). Veterinary Medicine and Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Publication Date: 2025-02-06 PubMed ID: 39912702PubMed Central: PMC11800372DOI: 10.1002/vms3.70210Google Scholar: Lookup
The Equine Research Bank provides access to a large database of publicly available scientific literature. Inclusion in the Research Bank does not imply endorsement of study methods or findings by Mad Barn.
- Journal Article
Summary
This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.
The research article is about a study that investigated the potential of using arterial blood samples taken from horses admitted for colic to predict their chances of survival to hospital discharge. This study identified several factors from the blood samples that significantly affect survival rates, but noted that predicting non-survival was less accurate.
Overview of the Research
- The research primarily aimed to assess if arterial blood samples taken from horses suffering from different types of colic could be used to predict their survival to hospital discharge.
- The study involved 358 horses that were undergoing either medical or surgical management for colic. These horses had arterial blood samples collected when they were admitted to the hospital.
- Various parameters such as pH, PaO, PaCO, Na, K, iCa, Cl, HCO (P), HCO (P, set), Base (B), Base (ecf) and anion gap were evaluated in the collected blood samples.
- The types of colic accounted for in the study were categorized as-
- Small intestinal non-strangulating (SINS) or strangulating (SIS) lesions,
- Large colon non-volvulus (LCNV) or volvulus (LCV),
- Small colon non-strangulating (SCNS) or strangulating (SCS) lesions, and
- Viscus rupture or other.
- The researchers used multivariable logistic regression models to predict survival based on the aforementioned arterial blood parameters.
Key Findings
- Out of the total 358 horses, 82.4% (295 horses) survived to hospital discharge.
- The study identified several arterial blood parameters that significantly predicted survival. These were:
- PaO for SINS
- PaO and Na for SIS
- Ca and HCO (P) for LCNV
- PaCO for LCV
- The area under the curve receiver operator characteristics (AUROCs), which describes the model’s ability to distinguish between surviving and non-surviving horses, were ranged from acceptable to excellent (0.7-0.9).
- The sensitivity of the model, which is its ability to correctly identify those who survived, was excellent (ranging from 91% to 100%).
- The specificity of the model, its ability to correctly identify those who did not survive, was poor to fair (ranging from 8% to 50%).
Conclusion
- The researchers concluded that arterial blood samples could contribute significantly to predictions about survival based on the type of colic. However, the study was not as accurate in predicting the horses that did not survive until hospital discharge.
Cite This Article
APA
Milner PI, Bardell D.
(2025).
Can Arterial Blood Gas, Electrolyte and Acid-Base Analysis at Admission be Used to Predict Survival to Hospital Discharge for Different Causes of Colic?
Vet Med Sci, 11(2), e70210.
https://doi.org/10.1002/vms3.70210 Publication
Researcher Affiliations
- Department of Equine Clinical Sciences, Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Neston, UK.
- Department of Equine Clinical Sciences, Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Neston, UK.
MeSH Terms
- Horses
- Animals
- Horse Diseases / mortality
- Horse Diseases / blood
- Blood Gas Analysis / veterinary
- Colic / veterinary
- Colic / mortality
- Colic / blood
- Electrolytes / blood
- Male
- Female
- Acid-Base Equilibrium / physiology
Conflict of Interest Statement
The authors declare no conflicts of interest.
References
This article includes 26 references
- Adrogué HJ, Madias NEH. Hyponatremia. New England Journal of Medicine 342, no. 21: 1581–1589.
- Archer DC. Colic Surgery: Keeping It Affordable for Horse Owners. Veterinary Record 185, no. 16: 505–507.
- Charney AN, Haskell LP. Relative Effects of Systemic pH, PCO2 and HCO3 − Concentration on Colonic Ion Transport. American Journal of Physiology 246, no. 2: G159–165.
- Chen L, Tuo B, Dong H. Regulation of Intestinal Glucose Absorption by Ion Channels and Transporters. Nutrients 8, no. 1: 43.
- Chong WH, Saha BK, Medarov BI. Comparing Central Venous Blood Gas to Arterial Blood Gas and Determining Its Utility in Critically Ill Patients: Narrative Review. Anesthesia and Analgesia 133: 374–378.
- Collatos C, Barton MH, Moore JN. Fibrinolytic Activity in Plasma From Horses With Gastrointestinal Diseases: Changes Associated With Diagnosis, Surgery and Outcome. Journal of Veterinary Internal Medicine 9, no. 1: 18–23.
- Delesalle C, Dewulf J, Lefebvre RA. Determination of Lactate Concentrations in Blood Plasma and Peritoneal Fluid in Horses With Colic by an Accusport Analyser. Journal of Veterinary Internal Medicine 21, no. 2: 293–301.
- Divers TJ, Whitlock RH, Byars TD, Leitch M, Crowell WA. Acute Renal Failure in Six Horses Resulting From Haemodynamic Causes. Equine Veterinary Journal 19, no. 3: 178–184.
- Eichenholz A, Mulhausen RO, Anderson WE, MacDonald FM. Primary Hypocapnia: A Cause of Metabolic Acidosis. Journal of Applied Physiology 17, no. 2: 283–288.
- Espinosa P, Le Jeune SS, Cenani A, Kass PH, Brosnan RJ. Investigation of Perioperative and Anesthetic Variables Affecting Short‐Term Survival of Horses With Small Intestinal Strangulating Lesions. Veterinary Surgery 46, no. 3: 345–353.
- Fogle J, Jacob M, Blikslager A. Comparison of Lipopolysaccharides and Soluble CD14 Measurement Between Clinically Endotoxaemic and Nonendotoxaemic Horses. Equine Veterinary Journal 49, no. 2: 155–159.
- Furr MO, Lessard P, White NA. Development of a Colic Severity Score for Predicting the Outcome of Equine Colic. Veterinary Surgery 24: 97–101.
- Gagnon KB, Delpire E. Sodium Transporters in Human Health and Disease. Frontiers in Physiology 11: 588664.
- Gunes V, Atalan G. Comparison of Ventral Coccygeal Arterial and Jugular Venous Blood Samples for pH, pCO2, HCO3, Be(ecf) and ctCO2 Values in Calves With Pulmonary Diseases. Research in Veterinary Science 81, no. 1: 148–151.
- Gurzman JA, Kruse JA. Splanchnic Hemodynamics and Gut Mucosal‐Arterial PCO2 Gradient During Systemic Hypocapnia. Journal of Applied Physiology 87, no. 3: 1102–1106.
- Helliwell PA, Rumsby MG, Kellet GL. Intestinal Sugar Absorption Is Regulated by Phosphorylation and Turnover of Protein Kinase C βII Mediated by Phosphatidylinositol 3‐Kinase‐ and Mammalian Target of Rapamycin‐Dependent Pathways. Journal of Biological Chemistry 278, no. 31: 28644–28650.
- Hovda T, Love L, Chiavaccini L. Risk Factors Associated With Hypoxaemia in Horse Undergoing General Anaesthesia: A Retrospective Study. Equine Veterinary Journal 54, no. 6: 1055–1063.
- Kelleher ME, Brosnan RJ, Kass PH, le Jeune SS. Use of Physiologic and Arterial Blood Gas Variables to Predict Short‐Term Survival in Horses With Large Colon Volvulus. Veterinary Surgery 42, no. 1: 107–113.
- Long AE, Southwood LL, Morris TB, Brandly JE, Stefanovski D. Use of Multiple Admission Variables Better Predicts Intestinal Strangulation in Horses With Colic Than Peritoneal or the Ratio of Peritoneal:Blood L‐Lactate Concentration. Equine Veterinary Journal 56, no. 3: 437–448.
- Mair TS, Smith LJ. Survival and Complication Rates in 300 Horses Undergoing Surgical Treatment of Colic. Part 1: Short‐Term Survival Following a Single Laparotomy. Equine Veterinary Journal 37, no. 4: 296–302.
- Migliorisi A, Barger A, Austin S, Foreman JH, Wilkins P. Hyponatremia in Horses With Septic Pneumopathy. Journal of Veterinary Internal Medicine 36, no. 5: 1820–1826.
- Orsini JA, Elser AH, Galligan DT, Donawick WJ, Kronfeld DS. Prognostic Index for Acute Abdominal Crisis (colic) in Horses. American Journal of Veterinary Research 49: 1969–1971.
- Reeves MJ, Curtis CR, Salman MD, Hilbert BJ. Prognosis in Equine Colic Patients Using Multivariable Analysis. Canadian Journal of Veterinary Research 53: 87–94.
- Stewart MC, Hodgson JL, Kim H, Hutchins DR, Hodgson DR. Acute Febrile Diarrhoea in Horses: 86 Cases (1986–1991). Australian Veterinary Journal 72, no. 2: 41–44.
- Viterbo L, Hughes J, Milner PI. Arterial Blood Gas, Electrolyte and Acid‐Base Values as Diagnostic and Prognostic Indicators in Equine Colic. Animals 13, no. 20: 3241.
- Wagner JD, Kurtin P, Charney AN. Effect of Systemic Acid–Base Disorders on Colonic Intracellular pH and Ion Transport. American Journal of Physiology 249, no. 1: G39–G47.
Citations
This article has been cited 0 times.Use Nutrition Calculator
Check if your horse's diet meets their nutrition requirements with our easy-to-use tool Check your horse's diet with our easy-to-use tool
Talk to a Nutritionist
Discuss your horse's feeding plan with our experts over a free phone consultation Discuss your horse's diet over a phone consultation
Submit Diet Evaluation
Get a customized feeding plan for your horse formulated by our equine nutritionists Get a custom feeding plan formulated by our nutritionists
