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Frontiers in veterinary science2021; 8; 697589; doi: 10.3389/fvets.2021.697589

Development of a Colic Scoring System to Predict Outcome in Horses.

Abstract: Acute abdominal pain in the horse is a common emergency presenting to equine practices. The wide variety of etiologies makes prognosticating survival a challenge. A retrospective, multi-institutional clinical study was performed to determine clinical parameters associated with survival of horses with colic, and to use them to develop a colic survival scoring system. The scoring system was then validated using clinical data in the prospective portion of the study. Medical records from 67 horses presenting for acute abdominal pain were evaluated to develop the colic assessment score. Twenty eight variables were compared between survivors and non-survivors and entered into logistic regression models for survival. Of these, six variables were included in the colic assessment score. A total colic assessment score range was from 0 to 12, with the highest score representing the lowest probability of survival. The optimal cutoff value to predict survival was seven resulting in an 86% sensitivity and 64% specificity with a positive predictive value of 88% and a negative predictive value of 57%. Data from 95 horses presenting for abdominal pain to two equine hospitals was then collected prospectively to validate the colic assessment score. Horses from the prospective portion of the study that received a score >7 were classified as predicted to die and those with a score ≤7 were predicted to survive. The classification was compared to the actual outcome, of which the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the colic assessment score were 84, 62, 88, and 52%, respectively.
Copyright © 2021 Farrell, Kersh, Liepman and Dembek.
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Publication Date: 2021-10-08 PubMed ID: 34692803PubMed Central: PMC8531487DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2021.697589Google Scholar: Lookup
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Summary

This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.

This research article presents the development and validation of a scoring system aiming to predict survival outcomes in horses experiencing acute abdominal pain, commonly known as colic. The study develops the colic assessment score, based on 6 key clinical variables, and tests its effectiveness using real-world data, showing promising prediction rates.

Research Background

  • Colic in horses, characterized by acute abdominal pain, presents a common emergency for equine practices.
  • The diverse range of etiologies makes determining survival outcomes for these cases quite difficult.

Study Design

  • The research carried out was a multi-institutional clinical study, done in two parts: retrospectively for developing the scoring system, and prospectively for validating its effectiveness.
  • In the retrospective part of the study, medical records from 67 horses presenting for colic were analyzed.
  • 28 variables related to survival outcomes were compared between surviving horses and those that did not survive, with six of these variables being used to create the colic assessment score.

The Scoring System

  • The colic assessment score developed in the retrospective study ranged from 0 to 12, where a higher score indicates a lower probability of survival.
  • The score threshold for survival was determined to be seven, resulting in sensitivity and specificity rates of 86% and 64%, respectively.
  • Additionally, the score had positive and negative predictive values of 88% and 57%, respectively.

Validation of the Scoring System

  • In the prospective part of the study, data from 95 horses presenting for abdominal pain at two equine hospitals was collected to verify the effectiveness of the colic assessment score.
  • Horses receiving a score above 7 were predicted to die, while those with a score of 7 and below were predicted to survive.
  • After comparing these classifications with the actual outcomes, the sensitivity, specificity, positive, and negative predictive values of the colic assessment score were found to be 84%, 62%, 88%, and 52% respectively.

Conclusion

  • The development and validation of a colic scoring system can assist veterinary professionals in predicting survival outcomes in horses presenting with acute abdominal pain.
  • Validation results demonstrate that this scoring system can indeed provide a reliable estimation of survival probability, supporting its potential application in equine practices.

Cite This Article

APA
Farrell A, Kersh K, Liepman R, Dembek KA. (2021). Development of a Colic Scoring System to Predict Outcome in Horses. Front Vet Sci, 8, 697589. https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2021.697589

Publication

Frontiers in veterinary science
ISSN: 2297-1769
NlmUniqueID: 101666658
Country: Switzerland
Language: English
Volume: 8
Pages: 697589
PII: 697589

Researcher Affiliations

Farrell, Alanna
  • Department of Veterinary Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United States.
Kersh, Kevin
  • Department of Veterinary Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United States.
Liepman, Rachel
  • Chaparral Veterinary Medical Center, Cave Creek, AZ, United States.
Dembek, Katarzyna A
  • Department of Veterinary Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, United States.

Conflict of Interest Statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

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Citations

This article has been cited 8 times.
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