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medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences2023; 2023.03.06.23286851; doi: 10.1101/2023.03.06.23286851

Dynamics of Eastern equine encephalitis virus during the 2019 outbreak in the Northeast United States.

Abstract: Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) causes a rare but severe disease in horses and humans, and is maintained in an enzootic transmission cycle between songbirds and mosquitoes. In 2019, the largest EEEV outbreak in the United States for more than 50 years occurred, centered in the Northeast. To explore the dynamics of the outbreak, we sequenced 80 isolates of EEEV and combined them with existing genomic data. We found that, like previous years, cases were driven by frequent short-lived virus introductions into the Northeast from Florida. Once in the Northeast, we found that Massachusetts was important for regional spread. We found no evidence of any changes in viral, human, or bird factors which would explain the increase in cases in 2019. By using detailed mosquito surveillance data collected by Massachusetts and Connecticut, however, we found that the abundance of was exceptionally high in 2019, as was the EEEV infection rate. We employed these mosquito data to build a negative binomial regression model and applied it to estimate early season risks of human or horse cases. We found that the month of first detection of EEEV in mosquito surveillance data and vector index (abundance multiplied by infection rate) were predictive of cases later in the season. We therefore highlight the importance of mosquito surveillance programs as an integral part of public health and disease control.
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Publication Date: 2023-03-06 PubMed ID: 36945576PubMed Central: PMC10029029DOI: 10.1101/2023.03.06.23286851Google Scholar: Lookup
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Summary

This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.

This study is about investigating the circumstances surrounding the 2019 outbreak of Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV), which was the largest outbreak in the United States in over 50 years. The researchers found no changes in the virus, humans, or birds that would explain this spike in cases, but discovered a high presence and infection rate of mosquitoes, which were a significant factor in the outbreak.

Methodology

  • The researchers sequenced 80 isolates of EEEV and combined these with existing genomic data to explore the dynamics of the 2019 outbreak.
  • They used detailed mosquito surveillance data collected by Massachusetts and Connecticut.
  • Employing these mosquito data, they built a negative binomial regression model to estimate early season risks of human or horse cases.

Findings

  • They found that, like during previous years, cases were driven by frequent short-lived virus introductions into the Northeast from Florida.
  • They concluded that Massachusetts played a key role in the regional spread of cases.
  • Contrary to a possible assumption, they found no evidence of any changes in viral, human, or bird factors that would explain an increase in cases in 2019.
  • They discovered that the abundance of mosquitoes was exceptionally high in 2019 and the EEEV infection rate in these mosquitoes was also notably high.

Outcome

  • An important outcome of this study was the understanding that the month of first detection of EEEV in mosquito surveillance data and the vector index (representing the abundance of mosquitoes and their infection rate), are predictive of cases later in the season.
  • They concluded that mosquito surveillance programs play an extremely vital role as part of public health and disease control and can help in anticipating outbreaks and taking early control measures.

Cite This Article

APA
Hill V, Koch RT, Bialosuknia SM, Ngo K, Zink SD, Koetzner CA, Maffei JG, Dupuis AP, Backenson PB, Oliver J, Bransfield AB, Misencik MJ, Petruff TA, Shepard JJ, Warren JL, Gill MS, Baele G, Vogels CBF, Gallagher G, Burns P, Hentoff A, Smole S, Brown C, Osborne M, Kramer LD, Armstrong PM, Ciota AT, Grubaugh ND. (2023). Dynamics of Eastern equine encephalitis virus during the 2019 outbreak in the Northeast United States. medRxiv, 2023.03.06.23286851. https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.03.06.23286851

Publication

medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
NlmUniqueID: 101767986
Country: United States
Language: English
PII: 2023.03.06.23286851

Researcher Affiliations

Hill, Verity
  • Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.
Koch, Robert T
  • Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.
Bialosuknia, Sean M
  • The Arbovirus Laboratory, New York State Department of Health, Wadsworth Center, Slingerlands, NY, USA.
Ngo, Kiet
  • The Arbovirus Laboratory, New York State Department of Health, Wadsworth Center, Slingerlands, NY, USA.
Zink, Steven D
  • The Arbovirus Laboratory, New York State Department of Health, Wadsworth Center, Slingerlands, NY, USA.
Koetzner, Cheri A
  • The Arbovirus Laboratory, New York State Department of Health, Wadsworth Center, Slingerlands, NY, USA.
Maffei, Joseph G
  • The Arbovirus Laboratory, New York State Department of Health, Wadsworth Center, Slingerlands, NY, USA.
Dupuis, Alan P
  • The Arbovirus Laboratory, New York State Department of Health, Wadsworth Center, Slingerlands, NY, USA.
Backenson, P Bryon
  • New York State Department of Health, Bureau of Communicable Disease Control, Albany, NY, USA.
Oliver, JoAnne
  • New York State Department of Health, Bureau of Communicable Disease Control, Syracuse, NY, USA.
  • Division of Environmental and Renewable Resources, State University of New York at Morrisville - School of Agriculture, Business and Technology, Morrisville, NY, USA.
Bransfield, Angela B
  • Center for Vector Biology and Zoonotic Diseases, Department of Entomology, The Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station, New Haven, CT, USA.
Misencik, Michael J
  • Center for Vector Biology and Zoonotic Diseases, Department of Entomology, The Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station, New Haven, CT, USA.
Petruff, Tanya A
  • Center for Vector Biology and Zoonotic Diseases, Department of Entomology, The Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station, New Haven, CT, USA.
Shepard, John J
  • Center for Vector Biology and Zoonotic Diseases, Department of Entomology, The Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station, New Haven, CT, USA.
Warren, Joshua L
  • Department of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.
  • Public Health Modeling Unit, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.
Gill, Mandev S
  • Department of Statistics, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.
Baele, Guy
  • Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.
Vogels, Chantal B F
  • Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.
Gallagher, Glen
  • Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Rhode Island State Health Laboratory, Rhode Island Department of Health, Providence, RI, USA.
Burns, Paul
  • Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Hentoff, Aaron
  • Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Smole, Sandra
  • Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Brown, Catherine
  • Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Osborne, Matthew
  • Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Kramer, Laura D
  • The Arbovirus Laboratory, New York State Department of Health, Wadsworth Center, Slingerlands, NY, USA.
  • Department of Biomedical Sciences, State University of New York at Albany School of Public Health, Albany, NY, USA.
Armstrong, Philip M
  • Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.
  • Division of Environmental and Renewable Resources, State University of New York at Morrisville - School of Agriculture, Business and Technology, Morrisville, NY, USA.
Ciota, Alexander T
  • The Arbovirus Laboratory, New York State Department of Health, Wadsworth Center, Slingerlands, NY, USA.
  • Department of Biomedical Sciences, State University of New York at Albany School of Public Health, Albany, NY, USA.
Grubaugh, Nathan D
  • Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.
  • Department of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.
  • Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.

Grant Funding

  • DP2 AI176740 / NIAID NIH HHS
  • U01 CK000509 / NCEZID CDC HHS
  • UL1 TR001863 / NCATS NIH HHS

Conflict of Interest Statement

Conflicts of interest. The authors declare no conflicts of interest related to this work.

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