Economic assessment of African horse sickness vaccine impact.

The research study evaluates the economic impact of African horse sickness (AHS) and suggests that investing in a more effective vaccine could result in positive economic return. It underscores how a new vaccine could significantly benefit the equine industry, particularly in the Republic of South Africa and non-endemic regions as well as communities in sub-Saharan Africa that rely on working horses.

Economic Impact of AHS and Vaccine Limitations

• The study delves into the harmful effects of African horse sickness (AHS), a disease predominant in sub-Saharan Africa but also threatening horse populations in non-endemic regions.
• The current vaccines available in the fight against this ailment have certain limitations, including an inability to quickly eliminate the virus in non-endemic zones.
• In terms of economic analysis, there has been a notable lack of studies investigating the potential benefits of introducing a safer and more effective AHS vaccine.

Research Objective and Methodology

• The researchers aim at evaluating the economic impact of AHS and hypothesize that investing in a novel, more potent AHS vaccine could result in an economic gain.
• To test this hypothesis, the study uses a cost-benefit analysis technique, collocating primary and secondary data in the process.
• A literature review, survey, interviews and qualitative assessment of at-risk populations provided data inputs to the analysis.
• An Excel-based deterministic cost-benefit model was built for testing different scenarios, with break-even and sensitivity analysis on crucial parameters being conducted.

Results and Conclusions

• AHS was found to cause an annual economic impact of around US$95 million, particularly affecting endemic regions with domestic equine industries involved in international trade.
• The cost to develop a new, more effective AHS vaccine was projected to be up to US$3.5 million, a figure small compared to the potential benefits.
• The study predicts a strong economic return on the investment for a new AHS vaccine, benefiting high-value horse sectors, particularly in the Republic of South Africa and non-endemic countries and communities in sub-Saharan Africa where horses hold economic and social significance.
• The researchers acknowledge a scarcity of data for the analysis, which necessitated expert input and extrapolation. However, sensitivity analysis validated the robustness of the investment return, negating the need for stochastic modelling.