Impact of reproductive efficiency over time and mare financial value on economic returns among Thoroughbred mares in central Kentucky.

This research study focused on understanding the impact of reproductive efficiency and financial value of Thoroughbred mares on economic returns over time, using a comprehensive analysis of 1176 mares’ production records and multiple logistical regression methodologies.

Methodology and Analysis

The methodology of the study was comprehensive, consisting of several primary steps:

• Complete production records for 1176 mares were collected and analysed.
• A history of production and shift in foaling dates over time were calculated.
• Multiple logistic regression, a statistical method used to analyze a dataset in which there are one or more independent variables that determine an outcome, was utilised to identify essential factors influencing the likelihood of mares producing a registered foal in 2005.
• Economic terms such as ‘net present value’ and ‘internal rate of return’ were calculated for different economic scenarios. These scenarios differed in initial mare financial values, levels of reproductive efficiency, and investment duration.

Key Findings

The investigation led to several significant findings:

• Among the mares that did not produce a foal every year (63%), the average time before failure to produce a registered foal was identified as 3.4 years.
• It was observed that the majority of mares drifted later in their foaling dates in subsequent foaling seasons.
• Increasing mare age, late foaling, needing to mate multiple times during the season, and a previous track record of producing fewer foals consecutively decreased the probability of producing a registered foal.
• For a 7-year investment period, live foals need to be produced for all but one year for a positive financial return. The profitability was maximum among mares of the highest financial value.

Conclusions and Implications

The research underlines that mares are long-term investments owing to an extended timeframe before realization of return on investment. Understanding the factors around mare, stallion, and even management, impacting the likelihood of a live foal production, is critical to ensure positive financial returns. Furthermore, additional work is required to check the strength of the conclusions when varied cost and revenue assumptions are used. The findings will help in assessing mare profitability and drafting management strategies to enhance profitability.