Modelling equine influenza 1: a stochastic model of within-yard epidemics.
Abstract: This paper demonstrates that a simple stochastic model can capture the features of an epidemic of equine influenza in unvaccinated horses. When the model is modified to consider vaccinated horses, we find that vaccination dramatically reduces the incidence and size of epidemics. Although occasional larger outbreaks can still occur, these are exceptional. We then look at the effects of vaccination on a yard of horses, and in particular at the relationship between pre-challenge antibody level and quantity of virus shed when challenged with the virus. While on average, a high antibody level implies that less virus will be shed during the infectious period, we identify a high degree of heterogeneity in the response of horses with similar pre-challenge antibody levels. We develop a modified model that incorporates some heterogeneity in levels of infectivity, and compare this with the simpler model.
Publication Date: 2002-07-13 PubMed ID: 12113495PubMed Central: PMC2869847DOI: 10.1017/s0950268802006829Google Scholar: Lookup
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- Journal Article
- Research Support
- Non-U.S. Gov't
Summary
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The research article is about developing a mathematical model that projects how equine influenza spreads among horses and how vaccination can significantly reduce its incidence and severity, despite variations in immune response.
Objective of the Research
- The main objective of this research was to create a simple stochastic model that could accurately predict the spread of equine influenza among unvaccinated horses within a yard. The model was also designed to reflect the impact of vaccination on the incidence and magnitude of the said influenza epidemics.
Effects of Vaccination
- The researchers modified the model to incorporate the effects of vaccination on horses. They found that vaccination significantly reduces the incidence and size of equine influenza epidemics. However, they pointed out that larger outbreaks can still exceptionally occur despite vaccination efforts.
Impact of Vaccination on Individual Horses
- The study further analyzed the effects of vaccination on individual horses, particularly the relationship between pre-vaccination antibody level and the amount of the virus shed when a horse is challenged with the virus. The findings showed that horses with higher pre-challenge antibody levels tend to shed less virus during the infectious period. However, noteworthy variations in virus shedding were observed among horses with similar pre-challenge antibody levels.
Modified Model
- The researchers presented a modified model that accounted for the observed heterogeneity in levels of infectivity among horses. They compared the results from this modified model with those from the simpler original model.
Conclusion
- The findings of this study suggest that while vaccination is a crucial control measure in mitigating the occurrence and intensity of equine influenza epidemics, individual differences among horses can lead to varied outcomes. Hence, there’s a need for models that incorporate heterogeneity in infectivity levels to achieve an accurate prediction of epidemic dynamics.
Cite This Article
APA
Glass K, Wood JL, Mumford JA, Jesset D, Grenfell BT.
(2002).
Modelling equine influenza 1: a stochastic model of within-yard epidemics.
Epidemiol Infect, 128(3), 491-502.
https://doi.org/10.1017/s0950268802006829 Publication
Researcher Affiliations
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, UK.
MeSH Terms
- Animals
- Antibodies, Viral / analysis
- Antigens, Viral / analysis
- Disease Outbreaks / veterinary
- Horse Diseases / epidemiology
- Horse Diseases / transmission
- Horses
- Incidence
- Influenza A virus / pathogenicity
- Models, Theoretical
- Vaccination / veterinary
Citations
This article has been cited 10 times.- Milwid RM, O'Sullivan TL, Poljak Z, Laskowski M, Greer AL. Comparing the effects of non-homogenous mixing patterns on epidemiological outcomes in equine populations: A mathematical modelling study. Sci Rep 2019 Mar 1;9(1):3227.
- Spence KL, O'Sullivan TL, Poljak Z, Greer AL. Using a computer simulation model to examine the impact of biosecurity measures during a facility-level outbreak of equine influenza. Can J Vet Res 2018 Apr;82(2):89-96.
- Dalziel BD, Huang K, Geoghegan JL, Arinaminpathy N, Dubovi EJ, Grenfell BT, Ellner SP, Holmes EC, Parrish CR. Contact heterogeneity, rather than transmission efficiency, limits the emergence and spread of canine influenza virus. PLoS Pathog 2014 Oct;10(10):e1004455.
- Daly JM, Newton JR, Wood JL, Park AW. What can mathematical models bring to the control of equine influenza?. Equine Vet J 2013 Nov;45(6):784-8.
- Hughes J, Allen RC, Baguelin M, Hampson K, Baillie GJ, Elton D, Newton JR, Kellam P, Wood JL, Holmes EC, Murcia PR. Transmission of equine influenza virus during an outbreak is characterized by frequent mixed infections and loose transmission bottlenecks. PLoS Pathog 2012 Dec;8(12):e1003081.
- Gildea S, Arkins S, Cullinane A. A comparative antibody study of the potential susceptibility of Thoroughbred and non-Thoroughbred horse populations in Ireland to equine influenza virus. Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2010 Nov;4(6):363-72.
- Cullinane A, Elton D, Mumford J. Equine influenza - surveillance and control. Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2010 Nov;4(6):339-44.
- Baguelin M, Newton JR, Demiris N, Daly J, Mumford JA, Wood JL. Control of equine influenza: scenario testing using a realistic metapopulation model of spread. J R Soc Interface 2010 Jan 6;7(42):67-79.
- Bharti N, Xia Y, Bjornstad ON, Grenfell BT. Measles on the edge: coastal heterogeneities and infection dynamics. PLoS One 2008 Apr 9;3(4):e1941.
- Park AW, Wood JL, Daly JM, Newton JR, Glass K, Henley W, Mumford JA, Grenfell BT. The effects of strain heterology on the epidemiology of equine influenza in a vaccinated population. Proc Biol Sci 2004 Aug 7;271(1548):1547-55.
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