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Transboundary and emerging diseases2022; 69(5); e1787-e1799; doi: 10.1111/tbed.14513

Modelling the temperature suitability for the risk of West Nile Virus establishment in European Culex pipiens populations.

Abstract: Increases in temperature and extreme weather events due to global warming can create an environment that is beneficial to mosquito populations, changing and possibly increasing the suitable geographical range for many vector-borne diseases. West Nile Virus (WNV) is a flavivirus, maintained in a mosquito-avian host cycle that is usually asymptomatic but can cause primarily flu-like symptoms in human and equid accidental hosts. In rare circumstances, serious disease and death are possible outcomes for both humans and horses. The main European vector of WNV is the Culex pipiens mosquito. This study examines the effect of environmental temperature on WNV establishment in Europe via Culex pipiens populations through use of a basic reproduction number ( R 0 ${R_0}$ ) model. A metric of thermal suitability derived from R 0 ${R_0}$ was developed by collating thermal responses of different Culex pipiens traits and combining them through use of a next-generation matrix. WNV establishment was determined to be possible between 14°C and 34.3°C, with the optimal temperature at 23.7°C. The suitability measure was plotted against monthly average temperatures in 2020 and the number of months with high suitability mapped across Europe. The average number of suitable months for each year from 2013 to 2019 was also calculated and validated with reported equine West Nile fever cases from 2013 to 2019. The widespread thermal suitability for WNV establishment highlights the importance of European surveillance for this disease and the need for increased research into mosquito and bird distribution.
© 2022 Crown copyright. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases published by Wiley-VCH GmbH. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen\'s Printer for Scotland.
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Publication Date: 2022-03-28 PubMed ID: 35304820PubMed Central: PMC9790397DOI: 10.1111/tbed.14513Google Scholar: Lookup
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Summary

This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.

This study investigates how global warming could potentially affect the spread of West Nile Virus (WNV) in Europe. Specifically, it uses models to explore how changes in temperature could influence the spread of WNV via the Culex pipiens mosquito, identified as the main carrier of the virus in Europe.

Understanding the Research Approach

For this study, the researchers opted to use a specific model for predicting West Nile Virus potential outbreak called the basic reproduction number (R0). This model aims to determine:

  • The temperature range within which WNV can establish itself in mosquito populations
  • The optimal temperature at which the virus can thrive most

The researchers combined thermal responses of different Culex pipiens traits to develop a metric of thermal suitability. This inform on how the mosquito species adapts to different temperature conditions.

Findings of the Study

After conducting the research, the major findings of the study included:

  • WNV can potentially establish itself in mosquito populations in conditions ranging between 14°C and 34.3°C, with optimal conditions at 23.7°C.
  • A mapping of the thermal suitability for WNV spread across Europe was conducted, which shows the regions at risk based on their average monthly temperatures during 2020.
  • Past data on suitable months for WNV spread was analyzed to validate the models. This involved the comparison of reported equine cases of West Nile fever from 2013 to 2019.

Implication of the Study

The study underscores the potential for a wider spread of WNV in Europe due to global warming that can alter mosquito populations and habitats. It also implies that increased European surveillance for WNV, as well as research work focusing on mosquito and bird distribution, are essential prevention strategies. The research can also potentially guide future disease prevention and health policies related to vector-borne diseases caused by mosquitoes.

Cite This Article

APA
Di Pol G, Crotta M, Taylor RA. (2022). Modelling the temperature suitability for the risk of West Nile Virus establishment in European Culex pipiens populations. Transbound Emerg Dis, 69(5), e1787-e1799. https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.14513

Publication

Transboundary and emerging diseases
ISSN: 1865-1682
NlmUniqueID: 101319538
Country: Germany
Language: English
Volume: 69
Issue: 5
Pages: e1787-e1799

Researcher Affiliations

Di Pol, Gabriella
  • Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health Group, Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, Royal Veterinary College, London, UK.
Crotta, Matteo
  • Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health Group, Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, Royal Veterinary College, London, UK.
Taylor, Rachel A
  • Department of Epidemiological Sciences, Animal and Plant Health Agency, Surrey, UK.

MeSH Terms

  • Animals
  • Birds
  • Culex
  • Culicidae
  • Horse Diseases
  • Horses
  • Humans
  • Mosquito Vectors
  • Temperature
  • West Nile Fever / epidemiology
  • West Nile Fever / veterinary
  • West Nile virus / physiology

Grant Funding

  • Wellcome Trust

Conflict of Interest Statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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