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Home / Equine Research Bank / PLoS One / Permissive summer temperatures of the 2010 European West Nil...
PloS one2013; 8(2); e56398; doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0056398

Permissive summer temperatures of the 2010 European West Nile fever upsurge.

Abstract: In the summer of 2010, Europe experienced outbreaks of West Nile Fever (WNF) in humans, which was preceded by hot spells. The objective of this study was to identify potential drivers of these outbreaks, such as spring and summer temperatures, relative humidity (RH), and precipitation. Methods: Pearson and lag correlations, binary and multinomial logistic regressions were used to assess the relationship between the climatic parameters and these outbreaks. Results: For human morbidity, significant (<0.05) positive correlations were observed between a number of WNF cases and temperature, with a geographic latitude gradient: northern ("colder") countries displayed strong correlations with a lag of up to four weeks, in contrast to southern ("warmer") countries, where the response was immediate. The correlations with RH were weaker, while the association with precipitation was not consistent. Horse morbidity started three weeks later than in humans where integrated surveillance was conducted, and no significant associations with temperature or RH were found for lags of 0 to 4 weeks. Conclusions: Significant temperature deviations during summer months might be considered environmental precursors of WNF outbreaks in humans, particularly at more northern latitudes. These insights can guide vector abatement strategies by health practitioners in areas at risk for persistent transmission cycles.
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Publication Date: 2013-02-19 PubMed ID: 23431374PubMed Central: PMC3576399DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0056398Google Scholar: Lookup
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Summary

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The research article investigates the relationship between certain weather conditions and the 2010 outbreaks of West Nile Fever (WNF) in Europe. Importantly, it suggests that deviations in summer temperatures might serve as early warning indicators for WNF outbreaks, especially in the northern regions.

Understanding the Research Objective and Methodology

  • The researchers sought to find the potential climatic drivers behind the sudden outbreak of West Nile Fever in Europe during the summer of 2010. They specifically focussed on spring and summer temperatures, relative humidity (RH), and precipitation.
  • The researchers employed multiple analytical techniques, such as Pearson and lag correlations, binary and multinomial logistic regressions, to ascertain any associations between the climatic parameters and outbreak conditions.

Significant Findings

  • The researchers found significant positive correlations between the number of reported WNF cases and temperature, especially within the northern regions that usually experience colder climates.
  • The response to temperature fluctuations was almost immediate in the warmer, southern countries. However, in the colder, northern countries, the response was noticeable only after a lag of up to four weeks.
  • Correlations with relative humidity were observed, but these were weaker in comparison to the temperature. Precipitation showed no definitive or consistent correlation to the WNF outbreaks.
  • Another interesting observation was that horse morbidity due to WNF started three weeks later than the human cases where integrated surveillance was conducted. Associated correlations with temperature or RH were not found for lags of 0 to 4 weeks in these cases.

Conclusions

  • The irregularities in the summer temperatures were identified as significant environmental indicators of potential WNF outbreaks in humans. The effect is felt more acutely at the northern latitudes, suggesting differences in how the disease responds to environmental changes in various regions.
  • The findings of the study can help health practitioners in implementing effective vector abatement strategies. For example, understanding when and where the risk of WNF may rise based on temperature shifts could considerably aid in controlling its spread.

Cite This Article

APA
Paz S, Malkinson D, Green MS, Tsioni G, Papa A, Danis K, Sirbu A, Ceianu C, Katalin K, Ferenczi E, Zeller H, Semenza JC. (2013). Permissive summer temperatures of the 2010 European West Nile fever upsurge. PLoS One, 8(2), e56398. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0056398

Publication

PloS one
ISSN: 1932-6203
NlmUniqueID: 101285081
Country: United States
Language: English
Volume: 8
Issue: 2
Pages: e56398
PII: e56398

Researcher Affiliations

Paz, Shlomit
  • Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel.
Malkinson, Dan
    Green, Manfred S
      Tsioni, Gil
        Papa, Anna
          Danis, Kostas
            Sirbu, Anca
              Ceianu, Cornelia
                Katalin, Krisztalovics
                  Ferenczi, Emőke
                    Zeller, Herve
                      Semenza, Jan C

                        MeSH Terms

                        • Animal Migration
                        • Animals
                        • Disease Outbreaks
                        • Europe / epidemiology
                        • Horse Diseases / epidemiology
                        • Horse Diseases / virology
                        • Horses
                        • Humans
                        • Incidence
                        • Seasons
                        • West Nile Fever / epidemiology
                        • West Nile Fever / veterinary

                        Conflict of Interest Statement

                        The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

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