Prediction of equine risk of West Nile virus infection based on dead bird surveillance.
Abstract: Since the introduction of West Nile Virus (WNV) to the United States in 1999, the efficacy of dead bird surveillance for the prediction of human and veterinary WNV infection has been an issue of debate. We utilized South Carolina's Department of Health and Environmental Control surveillance data from 2003 to determine whether dead bird surveillance accurately predicts equine WNV infection on a county level. We adjusted for human population density as a potential confounder of an association between WNV-positive dead bird counts and mammalian WNV risk. We found a strong positive association between avian risk of WNV death and subsequent equine mortality due to WNV in South Carolina even after adjusting for human population density. Sensitivity of dead bird surveillance as a predictor of future equine WNV risk was far superior to mosquito surveillance (95% vs. 9.5%, respectively). A Poisson regression model of the equine WNV rate as a function of WNV-positive dead bird rate, adjusting for population density and taking into account effect modification by population density shows a good fit with the data. Unlike most previous studies, we control for potential confounding of the dead, WNVpositive bird-equine WNV infection association by human population density. Yet, the positive association between dead bird surveillance and equine WNV risk remains strong and statistically significant, indicating that dead bird surveillance remains a valuable tool of WNV surveillance.
Publication Date: 2006-04-06 PubMed ID: 16584321DOI: 10.1089/vbz.2006.6.1Google Scholar: Lookup
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- Comparative Study
- Journal Article
- Animal Health
- Animal Science
- Avian
- Disease control
- Disease Prevalence
- Disease Surveillance
- Epidemiology
- Equine Diseases
- Equine Health
- Infectious Disease
- Mosquito-borne Diseases
- Population Dynamics
- Predictive Model
- Public Health
- Regression Analysis
- Veterinary Medicine
- Veterinary Research
- Veterinary Science
- West Nile Virus
- Zoonotic Diseases
Summary
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The research article investigates the use of dead bird surveillance as a method for predicting cases of West Nile Virus (WNV) infections in horses. The study was based in South Carolina and found a strong correlation between avian deaths and subsequent equine mortality from WNV after adjusting for human population density.
Objective of the Research
- The study aims to assess the effectiveness of dead bird surveillance for predicting the risk of West Nile Virus (WNV) infections in horses.
Methodology
- The researchers utilized data provided by South Carolina’s Department of Health and Environmental Control, from the year 2003.
- They adjusted for human population density as a potential confounding factor in assessing the correlation between WNV-positive dead bird counts and equine WNV risk.
- A Poisson regression model was used to associate the equine WNV rate with the WNV-positive dead bird rate, accounting for population density and its effect modification.
Major Findings
- The research found a strong correlation between avian WNV deaths and subsequent equine mortality from WNV, even after adjusting for human population density.
- The sensitivity of dead bird surveillance in predicting future WNV risk in horses was found to be significantly higher than mosquito surveillance (95% vs. 9.5% respectively).
Conclusion
- Contrary to some previous studies, this research controlled for potential confounding variables such as human population density.
- Despite this, the strong correlation between dead bird surveillance and equine WNV risk remained, indicating that dead bird surveillance is still a useful predictor of equine WNV infection risk.
Cite This Article
APA
Roberts RS, Foppa IM.
(2006).
Prediction of equine risk of West Nile virus infection based on dead bird surveillance.
Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis, 6(1), 1-6.
https://doi.org/10.1089/vbz.2006.6.1 Publication
Researcher Affiliations
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA.
MeSH Terms
- Animals
- Bird Diseases / mortality
- Bird Diseases / virology
- Birds
- Horse Diseases / epidemiology
- Horse Diseases / mortality
- Horse Diseases / virology
- Horses
- Humans
- Models, Biological
- Poisson Distribution
- Population Density
- Regression Analysis
- Risk Factors
- Sentinel Surveillance
- South Carolina / epidemiology
- West Nile Fever / epidemiology
- West Nile Fever / veterinary
- West Nile Fever / virology
- West Nile virus
Citations
This article has been cited 5 times.- Karki S, Brown WM, Uelmen J, Ruiz MO, Smith RL. The drivers of West Nile virus human illness in the Chicago, Illinois, USA area: Fine scale dynamic effects of weather, mosquito infection, social, and biological conditions. PLoS One 2020;15(5):e0227160.
- Chevalier V, Tran A, Durand B. Predictive modeling of West Nile virus transmission risk in the Mediterranean Basin: how far from landing?. Int J Environ Res Public Health 2013 Dec 20;11(1):67-90.
- Foppa IM, Beard RH, Mendenhall IH. The impact of West Nile virus on the abundance of selected North American birds. BMC Vet Res 2011 Aug 11;7:43.
- Brown HE, Childs JE, Diuk-Wasser MA, Fish D. Ecological factors associated with West Nile virus transmission, northeastern United States. Emerg Infect Dis 2008 Oct;14(10):1539-45.
- Swaddle JP, Calos SE. Increased avian diversity is associated with lower incidence of human West Nile infection: observation of the dilution effect. PLoS One 2008 Jun 25;3(6):e2488.
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