Risk factors for race-day fatality, distal limb fracture and epistaxis in Thoroughbreds racing on all-weather surfaces in Great Britain (2000 to 2013).

The study aims to identify risk variables for fatalities, distal limb fractures, and epistaxis in flat racing Thoroughbreds on all-weather surfaces in Great Britain. The research revealed that factors such as current age, age at first race, race distance, and horse performance are associated with increased risk of race-day injuries and fatalities.

Research Context

• The researchers recognized that even though there are more race-day injuries on all-weather (AW) surfaces than on turf in Great Britain, previous studies had not specifically focused on identifying risk factors relevant to AW racing.
• The target of this study was to identify and analyze the risk factors for fatality, distal limb fracture (DLF), and episodes of epistaxis in Thoroughbred flat races on AW surfaces in Great Britain.

Data Collection and Analysis

• The researchers pooled data from all flat racing starts on AW surfaces and race-day veterinary events recorded between 2000 and 2013. This included as many as 258,193 racing starts.
• Additional course-level data were collected through interviews with racecourse clerks.
• Mixed-effects multivariable logistic regression, with the horse as a random effect, was applied to assess horse-, race-, and course-level risk factors for each outcome.
• A classification tree method was also utilized to identify possible interaction terms to be incorporated into the models.

Study Findings

• Throughout the study period, 233 fatalities, 245 DLFs, and 410 episodes of epistaxis were recorded. The respective incidences per 1000 starts were 0.90 for fatalities, 0.95 for DLFs, and 1.59 for epistaxis.
• Risk factors varied across the three outcomes; however, several elements such as track conditions, racing intensity, horse age, horse age at first race start, and horse and trainer performance were common among them.
• Generally, older horses and those that started racing older were at greater risk of adverse outcomes, although there was an observed interaction between the two variables in the fatality model.
• Faster track conditions increased the likelihood of epistaxis and DLFs but not fatalities. Longer race distances increased the odds of fatality but reduced the odds of epistaxis.
• Epistaxis was associated with the type of AW surface (Fibresand versus Polytrack), but DLF and fatality were not.

Implications of the Study

• This research provides further evidence of the relationship between race-day injuries and fatalities and factors such as current age, age at first race, race distance, track condition, and horse performance.
• These findings supply the racing industry with significant information to formulate strategies aimed at reducing the occurrence of race-day incidents on AW surfaces.