Validation of a Risk Index Model for Predicting Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus Transmission to Horses in Florida.
Abstract: Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus (EEEV) is the most pathogenic arbovirus endemic to the United States. EEEV primarily infects birds but can be fatal to humans, horses, and some other mammals. Although EEEV transmission occurs in the Northeastern, Southeastern, and Midwestern United States, the largest number of horse and human cases have been reported in Florida, the only state where transmission occurs year round. Currently, a GIS-based risk index (RI) model is used to map EEE transmission risk to horses in Florida. This study validates that RI model using a 5-yr dataset of horse cases in Florida. RI values were similar between summer (N = 152, x¯ = 0.59) and winter (N = 25, x¯ = 0.66) cases, suggesting the model is effective for mapping risk during both transmission seasons. These risk values were larger and remained similar when a 100-m buffer was applied to the case locations to account for modest spatial errors in case reporting (summer x¯ = 0.73, winter x¯ = 0.77). In both comparisons, RI values for summer and winter cases were higher than expected at random in the Panhandle, North, and Central regions of the state, although the analysis was inconclusive in the South, where only two cases were observed. This suggests the RI map could be used to target EEEV surveillance, prevention, and control efforts in both transmission seasons in Florida.
Publication Date: 2018-05-04 PubMed ID: 29722818DOI: 10.1093/jme/tjy067Google Scholar: Lookup
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- Journal Article
- Validation Study
Summary
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The study focuses on the validation of a risk index (RI) model used to map the transmission risk of Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus (EEEV) to horses in Florida. The research demonstrates the model’s effectiveness based on a data set of horse cases in Florida over a five-year period.
Research Methodology
- The researchers utilized a risk index (RI) model that is based on Geographic Information System (GIS) to map the risk of EEE transmission to horses in Florida.
- The model’s validation utilised a dataset of recorded horse cases over a period of five years in Florida.
- There was a comparison of the RI values between cases recorded in the summer and winter seasons to assess the model’s effectiveness during different transmission seasons.
- The researchers also factored in a 100-metre buffer around each case location to account for possible spatial errors in case reporting.
- The comparison was extended beyond the general trend to examine the RI values in different regions of the state – Panhandle, North, Central, and South.
Research Findings
- The study found that the RI values for the summer and winter cases were not vastly different (0.59 and 0.66 respectively).
- These values increased and remained consistent when a 100-metre buffer was applied to the case locations (0.73 for summer and 0.77 for winter).
- The RI values for both summer and winter cases were higher than anticipated in random scenarios in the Panhandle, North, and Central regions of the state.
- The Southern region presented inconclusive results due to the presence of only two observed cases.
Conclusions and Recommendations
- The study concludes that the RI model is effective for mapping the risk of Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus (EEEV) transmission to horses in Florida throughout both summer and winter transmission seasons.
- The research suggests that the RI map, with its validated effectiveness, could be utilized to target surveillance, prevention, and control efforts against EEEV in Florida.
Cite This Article
APA
Downs J, Vaziri M, Jenkins A, Unnasch T.
(2018).
Validation of a Risk Index Model for Predicting Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus Transmission to Horses in Florida.
J Med Entomol, 55(5), 1143-1149.
https://doi.org/10.1093/jme/tjy067 Publication
Researcher Affiliations
- School of Geosciences, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL.
- School of Geosciences, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL.
- Department of Molecular Medicine, Morsani College of Medicine, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL.
- Department of Global Health, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL.
MeSH Terms
- Animals
- Encephalitis Virus, Eastern Equine
- Encephalomyelitis, Equine / transmission
- Florida
- Horse Diseases / transmission
- Horses / virology
- Models, Biological
- Risk Assessment
Grant Funding
- U01 CK000510 / NCEZID CDC HHS
Citations
This article has been cited 3 times.- Mermel LA. Association of Human Eastern Equine Encephalitis With Precipitation Levels in Massachusetts. JAMA Netw Open 2020 Jan 3;3(1):e1920261.
- Heberlein-Larson LA, Tan Y, Stark LM, Cannons AC, Shilts MH, Unnasch TR, Das SR. Complex Epidemiological Dynamics of Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus in Florida. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2019 May;100(5):1266-1274.
- Amenu K, McIntyre KM, Moje N, Knight-Jones T, Rushton J, Grace D. Approaches for disease prioritization and decision-making in animal health, 2000-2021: a structured scoping review. Front Vet Sci 2023;10:1231711.
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