A decision tree model for the implementation of a safety strategy in the horse-racing industry.
Abstract: The profession of a horse-racing jockey is a dangerous one. We developed a decision tree model quantifying the effects of implementing different safety strategies on jockey fall and injury rates and their associated costs. Methods: Data on race-day falls were obtained from stewards' reports from August 2002 to July 2009. Insurance claim data were provided by Principal Racing Authorities and workers' compensation authorities in each jurisdiction. Fall and claim incidence data were used as baseline rates. The model considered (1) the status quo, in which policy was unchanged; and (2) compared it with four hypothetical changes in policy that restricted apprentice jockeys from riding less-accomplished horses, with the aim of improving safety by reducing incidence of injurious jockey falls. Second-order Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to account for uncertainties. Results: The point estimate for mean costs of falls under the status quo was $30.73/ride, with falls by apprentice jockeys with <250 career race rides riding horses with less than five race starts contributing the highest costs ($98.49/ride). The hypothetical safety strategies resulted in a 1.04%-5.07% decrease in fall rates versus status quo. For three of the four strategies, significant reductions of 8.74%-13.13% in workers' compensation costs over one single race season were predicted. Costs were highly sensitive to large claims. Conclusions: This model is a useful instrument for comparing potential changes in cost and risks associated with implementing new safety strategies in the horseracing industry.
Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.
Publication Date: 2014-09-12 PubMed ID: 25216673DOI: 10.1136/injuryprev-2014-041223Google Scholar: Lookup
The Equine Research Bank provides access to a large database of publicly available scientific literature. Inclusion in the Research Bank does not imply endorsement of study methods or findings by Mad Barn.
- Journal Article
- Research Support
- Non-U.S. Gov't
Summary
This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.
The research aimed to determine the impact of different safety protocols on the incidence and cost of injuries among horse-racing jockeys using a decision tree model.
Research Method
- The researchers used a decision tree model to compare the outcomes of different safety strategies implemented within the horse-racing industry.
- Data on jockey falls on race days was gathered from stewards’ reports from August 2002 to July 2009. This data was used as a baseline to observe the rates of falls and claims.
- Additionally, insurance claim data were acquired from Principal Racing Authorities and workers’ compensation authorities in their respective jurisdictions.
- The model considered two scenarios for comparison: 1) the status quo, where the existing policy remained unchanged, and 2) four hypothetical policy changes aiming to prevent apprentice jockeys from riding less-accomplished horses with the objective of enhancing safety and reducing injury rates.
- To account for uncertainties, second-order Monte Carlo simulations were implemented.
Research Results
- The mean cost of falls under the unchanged policy was estimated at $30.73 per ride, with the highest costs associated with apprentice jockeys having less than 250 career race rides on horses with fewer than five race starts: $98.49 per ride.
- The implementation of the hypothetical safety strategies led to a fall rate decrease ranging from 1.04% to 5.07% in comparison with the status quo.
- In three out of the four strategies, there were anticipated significant reductions of 8.74% to 13.13% in workers’ compensation costs over a single race season.
- However, costs were found to be highly sensitive to large claims.
Conclusion
- This study concluded that using a decision tree model can be a constructive tool to compare the cost effectiveness and risk factors associated with various safety protocols in the horse-racing industry.
- The model could help guide policy makers in the industry towards making informed decisions about safety regulations that can reduce injury rates while optimizing costs.
Cite This Article
APA
Hitchens PL, Curry B, Blizzard CL, Palmer AJ.
(2014).
A decision tree model for the implementation of a safety strategy in the horse-racing industry.
Inj Prev, 21(2), 109-114.
https://doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2014-041223 Publication
Researcher Affiliations
- Menzies Research Institute Tasmania, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, California, USA.
- Menzies Research Institute Tasmania, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
- Menzies Research Institute Tasmania, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
- Menzies Research Institute Tasmania, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
MeSH Terms
- Accident Prevention / economics
- Accident Prevention / methods
- Accidental Falls / prevention & control
- Accidents, Occupational / prevention & control
- Animals
- Athletic Injuries / prevention & control
- Cost-Benefit Analysis
- Decision Trees
- Evidence-Based Medicine
- Horses
- Humans
- Incidence
- Models, Theoretical
- Risk Factors
- Safety
- Workers' Compensation / statistics & numerical data
Citations
This article has been cited 3 times.- Piantella S, McDonald SJ, Wright BJ. Gender and Workplace Stress Affect the Association Between Concussion History and Depression Symptoms in Professional Jockeys. Arch Clin Neuropsychol 2023 May 22;38(4):537-547.
- O'Connor S, Warrington G, McGoldrick A, Cullen S. Epidemiology of Injury Due to Race-Day Jockey Falls in Professional Flat and Jump Horse Racing in Ireland, 2011-2015. J Athl Train 2017 Dec;52(12):1140-1146.
- Morrice-West AV, Thomas M, Wong ASM, Flash M, Whitton RC, Hitchens PL. Linkage of jockey falls and injuries with racehorse injuries and fatalities in Thoroughbred flat racing in Victoria, Australia. Front Vet Sci 2024;11:1481016.
Use Nutrition Calculator
Check if your horse's diet meets their nutrition requirements with our easy-to-use tool Check your horse's diet with our easy-to-use tool
Talk to a Nutritionist
Discuss your horse's feeding plan with our experts over a free phone consultation Discuss your horse's diet over a phone consultation
Submit Diet Evaluation
Get a customized feeding plan for your horse formulated by our equine nutritionists Get a custom feeding plan formulated by our nutritionists
