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International journal of environmental research and public health2020; 18(1); 227; doi: 10.3390/ijerph18010227

An Environmental Niche Model to Estimate the Potential Presence of Venezuelan Equine Encephalitis Virus in Costa Rica.

Abstract: Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus (VEEV) is an arbovirus transmitted by arthropods, widely distributed in the Americas that, depending on the subtype, can produce outbreaks or yearly cases of encephalitis in horses and humans. The symptoms are similar to those caused by dengue virus and in the worst-case scenario, involve encephalitis, and death. MaxEnt is software that uses climatological, geographical, and occurrence data of a particular species to create a model to estimate possible niches that could have these favorable conditions. We used MaxEnt with a total of 188 registers of VEEV presence, and 20 variables, (19 bioclimatological plus altitude) to determine the niches promising for the presence of VEEV. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) value for the model with all variables was 0.80 for the training data and 0.72 for the test. The variables with the highest contribution to the model were Bio11 (mean temperature of the coldest quarter) 32.5%, Bio17 (precipitation of the driest quarter) 16.9%, Bio2 (annual mean temperature) 15.1%, altitude (m.a.s.l) 6.6%, and Bio18 (precipitation of the warmest quarter) 6.2%. The product of this research will be useful under the one health scheme to animal and human health authorities to forecast areas with high propensity for VEEV cases in the future.
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Publication Date: 2020-12-30 PubMed ID: 33396763PubMed Central: PMC7795298DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18010227Google Scholar: Lookup
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Summary

This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.

This research aimed to predict the likely regions in Costa Rica to experience outbreaks of Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus (VEEV), using weather, geographical, and historical virus activity data.

Introduction and Methodology

  • The research is centered around VEEV, a virus transmitted by arthropods (a group that includes insects, spiders, and crustaceans), which can cause fatal encephalitis in horses and humans.
  • The research was aligned with the One Health scheme, which recognizes the interconnectedness of human, animal, and environmental health.
  • An Environmental Niche Model was created, using the MaxEnt software program, to predict the potential occurrences of VEEV in Costa Rica. MaxEnt is a machine learning method used to identify the favourable environmental factors for species distribution.
  • The model incorporated data from 188 historical VEEV cases and 20 environmental variables which included BioClim variables that describe annual trends, seasonality and extreme environmental factors for the region, and altitude.

Findings from the Model

  • The success and accuracy of the model were evaluated using Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) value. An AUC value of 0.5 indicates a result no better than chance, while a value of 1.0 indicates perfect discrimination. In this case, the AUC values of 0.8 (for training data set) and 0.72 (for the test data set), suggest that the model performed well in predicting VEEV cases.
  • The model identified the most influential factors for VEEV occurrence are Bio11 (mean temperature of the coldest quarter), Bio17 (precipitation of the driest quarter), Bio2 (annual mean temperature), altitude, and Bio18 (precipitation of the warmest quarter).

Implications of the Research

  • The research identifies the climatic and geographical conditions under which VEEV is most likely to occur and can help public health authorities to anticipate likely areas of future outbreaks.
  • The same modelling technique could potentially be used to predict other disease outbreaks, benefiting both human and animal health planning and response activities.

Cite This Article

APA
León B, Jiménez-Sánchez C, Retamosa-Izaguirre M. (2020). An Environmental Niche Model to Estimate the Potential Presence of Venezuelan Equine Encephalitis Virus in Costa Rica. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 18(1), 227. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18010227

Publication

International journal of environmental research and public health
ISSN: 1660-4601
NlmUniqueID: 101238455
Country: Switzerland
Language: English
Volume: 18
Issue: 1
PII: 227

Researcher Affiliations

León, Bernal
  • Biosecurity Laboratory, Veterinary Service National Laboratory, Animal Health National Service, Ministry of Agriculture and Cattle, Heredia 40104, Costa Rica.
Jiménez-Sánchez, Carlos
  • Laboratory of Virology, Tropical Diseases Research Program (PIET), School of Veterinary Medicine, National University, Heredia 40101, Costa Rica.
Retamosa-Izaguirre, Mónica
  • International Institute for Wildlife Conservation and Management, National University of Costa Rica, Heredia 40101, Costa Rica.

MeSH Terms

  • Animals
  • Costa Rica / epidemiology
  • Encephalitis Virus, Venezuelan Equine
  • Encephalomyelitis, Venezuelan Equine / epidemiology
  • Encephalomyelitis, Venezuelan Equine / virology
  • Horses
  • Models, Biological

Conflict of Interest Statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest. This research received no external funding.

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Citations

This article has been cited 5 times.
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