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PloS one2014; 9(10); e109212; doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0109212

Development of a likelihood of survival scoring system for hospitalized equine neonates using generalized boosted regression modeling.

Abstract: Medical management of critically ill equine neonates (foals) can be expensive and labor intensive. Predicting the odds of foal survival using clinical information could facilitate the decision-making process for owners and clinicians. Numerous prognostic indicators and mathematical models to predict outcome in foals have been published; however, a validated scoring method to predict survival in sick foals has not been reported. The goal of this study was to develop and validate a scoring system that can be used by clinicians to predict likelihood of survival of equine neonates based on clinical data obtained on admission. Results: Data from 339 hospitalized foals of less than four days of age admitted to three equine hospitals were included to develop the model. Thirty seven variables including historical information, physical examination and laboratory findings were analyzed by generalized boosted regression modeling (GBM) to determine which ones would be included in the survival score. Of these, six variables were retained in the final model. The weight for each variable was calculated using a generalized linear model and the probability of survival for each total score was determined. The highest (7) and the lowest (0) scores represented 97% and 3% probability of survival, respectively. Accuracy of this survival score was validated in a prospective study on data from 283 hospitalized foals from the same three hospitals. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values for the survival score in the prospective population were 96%, 71%, 91%, and 85%, respectively. Conclusions: The survival score developed in our study was validated in a large number of foals with a wide range of diseases and can be easily implemented using data available in most equine hospitals. GBM was a useful tool to develop the survival score. Further evaluations of this scoring system in field conditions are needed.
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Publication Date: 2014-10-08 PubMed ID: 25295600PubMed Central: PMC4189956DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0109212Google Scholar: Lookup
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  • Journal Article
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  • Non-U.S. Gov't

Summary

This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.

The research developed and validated a scoring system for predicting the chances of survival for sick equine neonates (young foals) based on clinical data collected at admission.

Objective of the Study

  • This study aimed at creating a validated scoring method that could predict the survival odds for critically ill equine neonates using available clinical data. The method was intended to aid owners and medical practitioners in making informed decisions about the foals’ health management.

Methodology

  • The study’s data was derived from 339 hospitalized foals under four days old admitted to three equine hospitals.
  • Thirty-seven variables shuffled between historical data, physical examinations, and laboratory findings were evaluated using Generalized Boosted Regression Modelling (GBM) to ascertain the factors to be included in the survival score.
  • Out of these variables, only six were retained in the final model established. The weight for each of these variables was figured out using a Generalized Linear Model (GLM), and the survival probability for each total score was then determined.

Results

  • The scoring system’s highest score (7) represented a 97% likelihood of survival, while the lowest possible score (0) symbolized a mere 3% possibility of survival.
  • The scoring system’s accuracy was validated via a prospective study on data from 283 more hospitalized foals from the same three equine hospitals.
  • For the survival score in the upcoming population, the sensitivity, specificity, positive, and negative predictive values were 96%, 71%, 91%, and 85%, respectively.

Conclusions

  • The survival score developed in this study was validated in a significant number of foals and various types of diseases and can be easily implemented using data available in most equine hospitals.
  • Generalized Boosted Regression Modelling proved a useful tool in developing this survival score. Yet, further evaluations of this scoring system in field conditions remain essential.

Cite This Article

APA
Dembek KA, Hurcombe SD, Frazer ML, Morresey PR, Toribio RE. (2014). Development of a likelihood of survival scoring system for hospitalized equine neonates using generalized boosted regression modeling. PLoS One, 9(10), e109212. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0109212

Publication

PloS one
ISSN: 1932-6203
NlmUniqueID: 101285081
Country: United States
Language: English
Volume: 9
Issue: 10
Pages: e109212
PII: e109212

Researcher Affiliations

Dembek, Katarzyna A
  • College of Veterinary Medicine, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, United States of America.
Hurcombe, Samuel D
  • College of Veterinary Medicine, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, United States of America.
Frazer, Michele L
  • Hagyard Equine Medical Institute, Lexington, Kentucky, United States of America.
Morresey, Peter R
  • Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital, Lexington, Kentucky, United States of America.
Toribio, Ramiro E
  • College of Veterinary Medicine, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, United States of America.

MeSH Terms

  • Animals
  • Animals, Newborn
  • Critical Illness
  • Female
  • Horse Diseases / mortality
  • Horses
  • Hospitalization / statistics & numerical data
  • Male
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Prospective Studies

Conflict of Interest Statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

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Citations

This article has been cited 12 times.
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