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Equine veterinary journal2021; 54(2); 368-378; doi: 10.1111/evj.13430

Economic assessment of African horse sickness vaccine impact.

Abstract: African horse sickness (AHS) is endemic in sub-Saharan Africa posing a threat to equine populations in non-endemic regions. Available vaccine technologies have limitations, creating barriers to horse movement, AHS control and, in non-endemic areas or countries, rapid elimination of virus after incursion. The literature lacks an economic assessment of the benefits of bringing a new, more effective AHS vaccine to market. Objective: The study assesses the economic impact of AHS and tests the hypothesis that investment in a safer, more effective AHS vaccine would give an economic return. Methods: Cost-benefit analysis. Methods: Primary and secondary data were collected to populate the cost-benefit analysis model. A literature review was followed by a questionnaire survey and interviews to gather primary data. At-risk populations were defined and qualitative assessment completed to narrow the target populations for quantitative assessment. A deterministic cost-benefit model was developed in Excel and different scenarios tested. Break-even and sensitivity analysis were conducted on key parameters. Results: The economic impact of AHS was estimated to be US$95 million per annum, and this was mainly in endemic regions with domestic equine industries and involved in international trade. Investment required to bring a new AHS vaccine to market was estimated to be up to US$3.5 million, which was very small relative to the benefits estimated in this study. The economic return on investment in bringing a new AHS vaccine to market was predicted to be positive and the analysis demonstrates this result was robust. Conclusions: Data for the analysis were scarce, requiring expert opinion and extrapolation by the authors. Sensitivity analysis with the deterministic modelling structure indicated there was no justification for stochastic modelling, given the robustness of the return on investment. Conclusions: The analysis predicts a strong and robust economic return on the investment in bringing a new AHS vaccine to market. Main economic beneficiaries would be the high value horse sectors, specifically the equine industries in Republic of South Africa (RSA) and in non-endemic countries. In addition, major benefits would be captured in poor communities in sub-Saharan Africa where working equids are of high economic and social importance.
© 2021 The Authors. Equine Veterinary Journal published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of EVJ Ltd.
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Publication Date: 2021-03-28 PubMed ID: 33527473DOI: 10.1111/evj.13430Google Scholar: Lookup
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Summary

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The research study evaluates the economic impact of African horse sickness (AHS) and suggests that investing in a more effective vaccine could result in positive economic return. It underscores how a new vaccine could significantly benefit the equine industry, particularly in the Republic of South Africa and non-endemic regions as well as communities in sub-Saharan Africa that rely on working horses.

Economic Impact of AHS and Vaccine Limitations

  • The study delves into the harmful effects of African horse sickness (AHS), a disease predominant in sub-Saharan Africa but also threatening horse populations in non-endemic regions.
  • The current vaccines available in the fight against this ailment have certain limitations, including an inability to quickly eliminate the virus in non-endemic zones.
  • In terms of economic analysis, there has been a notable lack of studies investigating the potential benefits of introducing a safer and more effective AHS vaccine.

Research Objective and Methodology

  • The researchers aim at evaluating the economic impact of AHS and hypothesize that investing in a novel, more potent AHS vaccine could result in an economic gain.
  • To test this hypothesis, the study uses a cost-benefit analysis technique, collocating primary and secondary data in the process.
  • A literature review, survey, interviews and qualitative assessment of at-risk populations provided data inputs to the analysis.
  • An Excel-based deterministic cost-benefit model was built for testing different scenarios, with break-even and sensitivity analysis on crucial parameters being conducted.

Results and Conclusions

  • AHS was found to cause an annual economic impact of around US$95 million, particularly affecting endemic regions with domestic equine industries involved in international trade.
  • The cost to develop a new, more effective AHS vaccine was projected to be up to US$3.5 million, a figure small compared to the potential benefits.
  • The study predicts a strong economic return on the investment for a new AHS vaccine, benefiting high-value horse sectors, particularly in the Republic of South Africa and non-endemic countries and communities in sub-Saharan Africa where horses hold economic and social significance.
  • The researchers acknowledge a scarcity of data for the analysis, which necessitated expert input and extrapolation. However, sensitivity analysis validated the robustness of the investment return, negating the need for stochastic modelling.

Cite This Article

APA
Redmond EF, Jones D, Rushton J. (2021). Economic assessment of African horse sickness vaccine impact. Equine Vet J, 54(2), 368-378. https://doi.org/10.1111/evj.13430

Publication

Equine veterinary journal
ISSN: 2042-3306
NlmUniqueID: 0173320
Country: United States
Language: English
Volume: 54
Issue: 2
Pages: 368-378

Researcher Affiliations

Redmond, Elizabeth F
  • Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
Jones, Derrick
  • Derrick Jones Economics Ltd, Surrey, UK.
Rushton, Jonathan
  • Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.

MeSH Terms

  • African Horse Sickness / epidemiology
  • African Horse Sickness / prevention & control
  • African Horse Sickness Virus
  • Animals
  • Commerce
  • Cost-Benefit Analysis
  • Horse Diseases / prevention & control
  • Horses
  • Internationality
  • Vaccines

Grant Funding

  • Fédération Equestre Internationale
  • International Federation of Horseracing Authorities
  • World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE)
  • Pirbright Institute

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This article includes 19 references
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Citations

This article has been cited 7 times.
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  2. Lysholm S, Chaters GL, Di Bari C, Hughes EC, Huntington B, Rushton J, Thomas L. A framework for quantifying the multisectoral burden of animal disease to support decision making. Front Vet Sci 2025;12:1476505.
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  4. Bonsi M, Anderson NE, Carder G. The Socioeconomic Impact of Diseases of Working Equids in Low and Middle-Income Countries: A Critical Review. Animals (Basel) 2023 Dec 15;13(24).
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