Fédération Equestre Internationale (FEI) endurance events: Riding speeds as a risk factor for failure to qualify outcomes (2012-2015).

The research article investigates whether riding speed during Fédération Equestre Internationale (FEI) endurance events influences an equestrian’s chances of being disqualified. It discovered that faster speeds and significant decreases in speed during specific stages of the event correlate with higher chances of elimination.

Research Methodology

• Data from 35,061 horse starts spanning from July 1, 2012, to December 31, 2015, was used in the study. Events during this period were observed and documented to provide comprehensive data for analyzing outcomes.
• The researchers used a multivariable logistic regression model to dissect the relationship between riding speeds and disqualifications. This model was embedded with 25 different risk factors to ensure the evaluation was wide-ranging and detailed.
• Particular attention was given to the speed of horses in each loop or stage. Speed changes between one loop to another were also noted as potential risk factors.

Main Findings

• The research discovered that riding speeds during different stages of the competition significantly influenced the outcomes. Specifically, higher speeds during the first and second stages, or loops, increased a horse’s likelihood of disqualification.
• The study also noted that sudden drops in riding speed during the third loop significantly increased the chances of elimination. This suggests that both maintaining high speeds and substantial speed drops may have detrimental effects.
• This study led to an exploration of real-time predictive modeling. The observed factors have the potential to predict competition outcomes before they occur, with the model considering both the current riding speeds and sudden changes between loops.