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BMC veterinary research2006; 2; 27; doi: 10.1186/1746-6148-2-27

Is equine colic seasonal? Novel application of a model based approach.

Abstract: Colic is an important cause of mortality and morbidity in domesticated horses yet many questions about this condition remain to be answered. One such question is: does season have an effect on the occurrence of colic? Time-series analysis provides a rigorous statistical approach to this question but until now, to our knowledge, it has not been used in this context. Traditional time-series modelling approaches have limited applicability in the case of relatively rare diseases, such as specific types of equine colic. In this paper we present a modelling approach that respects the discrete nature of the count data and, using a regression model with a correlated latent variable and one with a linear trend, we explored the seasonality of specific types of colic occurring at a UK referral hospital between January 1995-December 2004. Results: Six- and twelve-month cyclical patterns were identified for all colics, all medical colics, epiploic foramen entrapment (EFE), equine grass sickness (EGS), surgically treated and large colon displacement/torsion colic groups. A twelve-month cyclical pattern only was seen in the large colon impaction colic group. There was no evidence of any cyclical pattern in the pedunculated lipoma group. These results were consistent irrespective of whether we were using a model including latent correlation or trend. Problems were encountered in attempting to include both trend and latent serial dependence in models simultaneously; this is likely to be a consequence of a lack of power to separate these two effects in the presence of small counts, yet in reality the underlying physical effect is likely to be a combination of both. Conclusions: The use of a regression model with either an autocorrelated latent variable or a linear trend has allowed us to establish formally a seasonal component to certain types of colic presented to a UK referral hospital over a 10 year period. These patterns appeared to coincide with either times of managemental change or periods when horses are more likely to be intensively managed. Further studies are required to identify the determinants of the observed seasonality. Importantly, this type of regression model has applications beyond the study of equine colic and it may be useful in the investigation of seasonal patterns in other, relatively rare, conditions in all species.
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Publication Date: 2006-08-24 PubMed ID: 16930473PubMed Central: PMC1570133DOI: 10.1186/1746-6148-2-27Google Scholar: Lookup
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Summary

This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.

This research explores the seasonal occurrence of equine colic, a health issue in horses, by applying a specific modeling approach utilizing historical data from a UK hospital. The study found evidence of seasonal patterns in certain types of equine colic.

Study Overview

  • The researchers conducted a time-series analysis to investigate the potential effect of seasons on the occurrence of equine colic. They used data from a UK referral hospital that documented cases of colic from January 1995 to December 2004.
  • Previous time-series models had limited use for rare diseases like certain types of equine colic. Therefore, the researchers developed a new modeling approach, considering the unique nature of the discrete count data.

Modeling Approach

  • The researchers examined the data using a regression model that comprised a correlated latent variable and one with a linear trend. This approach allowed them to examine the seasonality of specific types of equine colic.
  • The model faced challenges when both trend and latent serial dependence were included in models simultaneously. This issue likely arose due to a lack of power to separate these two effects when counts were small. However, in physical reality, the underlying effect is likely a combination of both factors.

Results

  • The analysis uncovered six- and twelve-month cyclical patterns for all colics, all medical colics, and other specific types of colics. The large colon impaction colic group had only a twelve-month cyclical pattern, and the pedunculated lipoma group showed no evidence of cyclical patterns.
  • These results were consistent regardless of whether a model with latent correlation or trend was used.

Conclusions and Further Research

  • The study affirmed the existence of a seasonal component to certain types of equine colic. The observed patterns seem to align with periods of intensively managed horses or significant managemental changes.
  • Additional studies are required to identify the factors causing this observed seasonality. The researchers also suggest future research into this type of regression model’s applicability beyond the study of equine colic, potentially being useful in studying seasonal patterns in other rare conditions across all species.

Cite This Article

APA
Archer DC, Pinchbeck GL, Proudman CJ, Clough HE. (2006). Is equine colic seasonal? Novel application of a model based approach. BMC Vet Res, 2, 27. https://doi.org/10.1186/1746-6148-2-27

Publication

BMC veterinary research
ISSN: 1746-6148
NlmUniqueID: 101249759
Country: England
Language: English
Volume: 2
Pages: 27

Researcher Affiliations

Archer, Debra C
  • Epidemiology Group, Department of Veterinary Science, University of Liverpool, Leahurst, Neston, Wirral, CH64 7TE, UK. darcher@liv.ac.uk
Pinchbeck, Gina L
    Proudman, Christopher J
      Clough, Helen E

        MeSH Terms

        • Animals
        • Colic / epidemiology
        • Colic / therapy
        • Colic / veterinary
        • Horse Diseases / epidemiology
        • Horse Diseases / therapy
        • Horses
        • Models, Biological
        • Seasons
        • United Kingdom / epidemiology

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        Citations

        This article has been cited 15 times.
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