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Viruses2024; 16(8); doi: 10.3390/v16081221

Modelling the Influence of Climate and Vector Control Interventions on Arbovirus Transmission.

Abstract: Most mathematical models that assess the vectorial capacity of disease-transmitting insects typically focus on the influence of climatic factors to predict variations across different times and locations, or examine the impact of vector control interventions to forecast their potential effectiveness. We combine features of existing models to develop a novel model for vectorial capacity that considers both climate and vector control. This model considers how vector control tools affect vectors at each stage of their feeding cycle, and incorporates host availability and preference. Applying this model to arboviruses of veterinary importance in Europe, we show that African horse sickness virus (AHSV) has a higher peak predicted vectorial capacity than bluetongue virus (BTV), Schmallenberg virus (SBV), and epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV). However, AHSV has a shorter average infectious period due to high mortality; therefore, the overall basic reproduction number of AHSV is similar to BTV. A comparable relationship exists between SBV and EHDV, with both viruses showing similar basic reproduction numbers. Focusing on AHSV transmission in the UK, insecticide-treated stable netting is shown to significantly reduce vectorial capacity of Culicoides, even at low coverage levels. However, untreated stable netting is likely to have limited impact. Overall, this model can be used to consider both climate and vector control interventions either currently utilised or for potential use in an outbreak, and could help guide policy makers seeking to mitigate the impact of climate change on disease control.
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Publication Date: 2024-07-30 PubMed ID: 39205195PubMed Central: PMC11359451DOI: 10.3390/v16081221Google Scholar: Lookup
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  • Non-U.S. Gov't

Summary

This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.

This research aims to create a new mathematical model to examine how climate conditions and vector control methods interact to affect the spread of arbovirus, specifically those impacting animals in Europe. The researchers found that African horse sickness virus may spread more easily but is less likely to result in long-term infections than viruses like bluetongue virus. They also concluded that the use of insecticide-treated stable netting is an effective prevention measure.

Introduction and Methodology

  • The researchers have created a new mathematical model which combines existing models to assess how both climatic conditions and tools for controlling disease-spreading insects, known as vectors, interact to impact disease transmission.
  • This model focuses on the lifecycle stages of disease-spreading insects and integrates climate factors alongside vector control measures.
  • As part of this model, the study also takes into account factors like available hosts and host preference.
  • The model was then applied to arboviruses that commonly affect livestock in Europe – African horse sickness virus (AHSV), bluetongue virus (BTV), Schmallenberg virus (SBV), and epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV).

Results and Findings

  • The study finds that AHSV displays a higher peak in potential transmission, or vectorial capacity, than BTV, SBV, and EHDV.
  • However, due to a higher mortality rate, AHSV has a shorter average infectious period which means that its overall basic reproduction number, or the number of new infections generated by an infected individual, is similar to BTV.
  • A similar correlation is found between SBV and EHDV, where both viruses exhibit comparable basic reproduction numbers.
  • The research also tested the potential impact of vector control interventions on AHSV transmission in the UK and concluded that insecticide-treated stable netting significantly lowers the vectorial capacity, even if coverage isn’t extensive. On the other hand, untreated stable netting showed little to no impact.

Implications and Utility of the Research

  • The developed model can help analyze how both current and potential future vector control interventions, combined with climate variables, can impact disease transmission.
  • This research could lend important insights for policy makers aiming to mitigate the effects of climate change on disease control. It could provide the basis for developing more effective strategies in controlling the spread of arboviruses in livestock, thereby protecting both animal health and livelihoods in the agricultural sector.

Cite This Article

APA
Fairbanks EL, Daly JM, Tildesley MJ. (2024). Modelling the Influence of Climate and Vector Control Interventions on Arbovirus Transmission. Viruses, 16(8). https://doi.org/10.3390/v16081221

Publication

Viruses
ISSN: 1999-4915
NlmUniqueID: 101509722
Country: Switzerland
Language: English
Volume: 16
Issue: 8

Researcher Affiliations

Fairbanks, Emma L
  • The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, Mathematics Institute and School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK.
Daly, Janet M
  • One Virology-Wolfson Centre for Global Virus Research, School of Veterinary Medicine and Science, University of Nottingham, Loughborough LE12 5RD, UK.
Tildesley, Michael J
  • The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, Mathematics Institute and School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK.

MeSH Terms

  • Animals
  • Arbovirus Infections / transmission
  • Arbovirus Infections / prevention & control
  • Arboviruses / physiology
  • Insect Vectors / virology
  • Insect Vectors / physiology
  • Ceratopogonidae / virology
  • Ceratopogonidae / physiology
  • Climate
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Europe / epidemiology
  • Basic Reproduction Number
  • Bluetongue virus / physiology

Grant Funding

  • vet/prj/809 / Horserace Betting Levy Board
  • BB/T004312/1 / BBSRC/EEID

Conflict of Interest Statement

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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Citations

This article has been cited 7 times.
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