FREE SHIPPING over $40
OVER 9000 FIVE-STAR REVIEWS
5% OFF ALL SUBSCRIPTIONS
100% HAPPINESS GUARANTEE
Analyze Diet
0
Home / Equine Research Bank / Sci Rep / Predicting the possibility of African horse sickness (AHS) i...
Scientific reports2022; 12(1); 3910; doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-07512-w

Predicting the possibility of African horse sickness (AHS) introduction into China using spatial risk analysis and habitat connectivity of Culicoides.

Abstract: African horse sickness (AHS) is a devastating equine infectious disease. On 17 March 2020, it first appeared in Thailand and threatened all the South-East Asia equine industry security. Therefore, it is imperative to carry out risk warnings of the AHS in China. The maximum entropy algorithm was used to model AHS and Culicoides separately by using climate and non-climate variables. The least cost path (LCP) method was used to analyze the habitat connectivity of Culicoides with the reclassified land cover and altitude as cost factors. The models showed the mean area under the curve as 0.918 and 0.964 for AHS and Culicoides. The prediction result map shows that there is a high risk area in the southern part of China while the habitats of the Culicoides are connected to each other. Therefore, the risk of introducing AHS into China is high and control of the border area should be strengthened immediately.
© 2022. The Author(s).
Get Full Text
Publication Date: 2022-03-10 PubMed ID: 35273211PubMed Central: PMC8913660DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-07512-wGoogle Scholar: Lookup
The Equine Research Bank provides access to a large database of publicly available scientific literature. Inclusion in the Research Bank does not imply endorsement of study methods or findings by Mad Barn.
LinkedInCopy
  • Journal Article
  • Research Support
  • Non-U.S. Gov't

Summary

This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.

This research forecasted the potential risk of the introduction of African Horse Sickness (AHS) into China through spatial risk analysis and examined the habitat connectivity of Culicoides, the insect that serves as a vector for the disease. Predictions indicate a high risk of AHS entry, particularly in southern China.

Methodology and Findings

  • The study utilized climate and non-climate variables to model AHS and Culicoides independently using the maximum entropy algorithm, an approach that provides a sophisticated likelihood measure of the distribution of a given event.
  • Meanwhile, the researchers employed the least-cost path (LCP) method to assess the habitat connectivity of Culicoides. This method considered the reclassified land cover and altitude as cost factors influencing their distribution.
  • The models demonstrated high accuracy, with the area under the curve—an indicator of model performance—being 0.918 for AHS and 0.964 for Culicoides. These high values imply that the models were successful in predicting the risks and distribution patterns of both AHS and Culicoides.
  • The prediction result map indicated a high-risk area in southern China, where the habitats of Culicoides are interconnected. This suggests easy transmission pathways for the disease within this region.

Implications and Recommendations

  • These findings reveal a considerable potential for AHS to enter China, primarily through its southern region. This result is a significant cause for concern for China’s equine industry and necessitates immediate preventative measures.
  • The study emphasizes that controlling the border areas, reducing the habitat connectivity of Culicoides—the carrier insect—and implementing strict environmental, climate, and parasitic controls will be vital in preventing the introduction and potential epidemic of AHS. Furthermore, targeted vaccinations in the high-risk areas should be considered as a primary element of control strategies.
  • This investigation also underscores the utility of spatial risk analysis and disease modeling in detecting disease introduction risks. The techniques used here can be applied to other species and diseases for early warning and preventative strategies.

Cite This Article

APA
Gao S, Zeng Z, Wang H, Chen F, Huang L, Wang X. (2022). Predicting the possibility of African horse sickness (AHS) introduction into China using spatial risk analysis and habitat connectivity of Culicoides. Sci Rep, 12(1), 3910. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-07512-w

Publication

Scientific reports
ISSN: 2045-2322
NlmUniqueID: 101563288
Country: England
Language: English
Volume: 12
Issue: 1
Pages: 3910

Researcher Affiliations

Gao, Shan
  • College of Wildlife & Protected Area, Ministry of Education, Northeast Forestry University, 26 Hexing Road, Xiangfang District, Harbin, 150040, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China.
  • Key Laboratory of Wildlife Diseases and Biosecurity Management of Heilongjiang Province, 26 Hexing Road, Xiangfang District, Harbin, 150040, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China.
Zeng, Zan
  • Department of Vascular Surgery, Changhai Hospital, Second Military Medical University, Shanghai, 200433, People's Republic of China.
Wang, HaoNing
  • School of Geography and Tourism, Harbin University, Harbin, 150086, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China.
Chen, FangYuan
  • The Second Geomatics Cartography Institute, Ministry of Natural Resource, Harbin, 150086, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China.
Huang, LiYa
  • Changbai Mountain Academy of Sciences, Antu, 133613, Jilin Province, People's Republic of China.
Wang, XiaoLong
  • College of Wildlife & Protected Area, Ministry of Education, Northeast Forestry University, 26 Hexing Road, Xiangfang District, Harbin, 150040, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China. wxlhrb123@outlook.com.
  • Key Laboratory of Wildlife Diseases and Biosecurity Management of Heilongjiang Province, 26 Hexing Road, Xiangfang District, Harbin, 150040, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China. wxlhrb123@outlook.com.

MeSH Terms

  • African Horse Sickness / epidemiology
  • African Horse Sickness Virus
  • Animals
  • Ceratopogonidae
  • China / epidemiology
  • Ecosystem
  • Horses
  • Insect Vectors
  • Risk Assessment

Conflict of Interest Statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

References

This article includes 50 references
  1. Kumar N. Peste des petits ruminants virus infection of small ruminants: A comprehensive review.. Viruses 2014;6:2287–2327.
    doi: 10.3390/v6062287pmc: PMC4074929pubmed: 24915458google scholar: lookup
  2. Zientara S, Weyer CT, Lecollinet S. African horse sickness.. Rev. Sci. Tech. 2015;34:315–327.
    doi: 10.20506/rst.34.2.2359pubmed: 26601437google scholar: lookup
  3. Rutkowska DA, Mokoena NB, Tsekoa TL, Dibakwane VS, O’Kennedy MM. Plant-produced chimeric virus-like particles—A new generation vaccine against African horse sickness.. BMC Vet. Res. 2019;15:1.
    doi: 10.1016/j.rvsc.2010.05.031pmc: PMC6892175pubmed: 31796116google scholar: lookup
  4. Barnard BJH. Epidemiology of African horse sickness and the role of zebra in South Africa.. Arch. Virol. Suppl. 1998;14:13–19.
    doi: 10.1007/978-3-7091-6823-3_3pubmed: 9785491google scholar: lookup
  5. Hamblin C, Salt JS, Mellor PS, Graham SD, Wohlsein P. Donkeys as reservoirs of African horse sickness virus.. Arch. Virol. Suppl. 1998;14:37–47.
    doi: 10.1007/978-3-7091-6823-3_5pubmed: 9785494google scholar: lookup
  6. Mellor PS, Boorman JPT, Baylis M. Culicoides biting midges: their role as arbovirus vectors.. Annu. Rev. Entomol. 2000;45:307–340.
    doi: 10.1146/annurev.ento.45.1.307pubmed: 10761580google scholar: lookup
  7. Redmond EF, Jones D, Rushton J. Economic assessment of african horse sickness vaccine impact.. Equine Vet. J. 2021.
    doi: 10.1111/j.2042-3306.1982.tb02404.xpubmed: 33527473google scholar: lookup
  8. Venter GJ, Wright IM, Linde TCVD, Paweska JT. The oral susceptibility of South African field populations of Culicoides to African horse sickness virus.. Med. Vet. Entomol. 2010;23:367–378.
    doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2915.2009.00829.xpubmed: 19941602google scholar: lookup
  9. Mellor PS, Boned J, Hamblin C, Graham SD. Isolations of African horse sickness virus from vector insects made during the 1988 epizootic in Spain.. Epidemiol. Infect. 1990;105:447–454.
    doi: 10.1017/s0950268800048020pmc: PMC2271884pubmed: 2209746google scholar: lookup
  10. Meiswinkel R, Paweska JT. Evidence for a new field Culicoides vector of African horse sickness in South Africa.. Prev. Vet. Med. 2003;60:243–253.
    doi: 10.1016/s0167-5877(02)00231-3pubmed: 12900162google scholar: lookup
  11. Howell PG. The isolation and identification of further antigenic types of African horsesickness virus.. Onderstepoort. J. Vet. Res. 1962;29:139–149.
  12. Calisher CH, Mertens PPC. Taxonomy of African horse sickness viruses.. Arch. Virol. Suppl. 1998;14:3.
    pubmed: 9785490
  13. Rodriguez M, Hooghuis H, Castaño M. African horse sickness in Spain.. Vet. Microbiol. 1992;33:129–142.
    doi: 10.1016/0378-1135(92)90041-qpubmed: 1481352google scholar: lookup
  14. Howell PG. The 1960 epizootic of African Horsesickness in the Middle East and S.W. Asia (268KB) (268KB).. J. South Afr. Vet. Med. Assoc. (1960).
  15. King S, RajkoEnow P, Ashby M, Frost L, Batten C. Outbreak of African Horse Sickness in Thailand, 2020.. Transbound. Emerg. Dis. (2020).
    pubmed: 32593205
  16. OIE. World Animal Health Information System.. (2020).
  17. Castillo-Olivares J. African horse sickness in Thailand: Challenges of Controlling an outbreak by vaccination.. Equine Vet. J. (2020).
    pmc: PMC7821295pubmed: 33007121
  18. Gibbens N. Schmallenberg virus: a novel viral disease in northern Europe.. Vet. Rec. 2012;170:58.
    doi: 10.1136/vr.e292pubmed: 22247205google scholar: lookup
  19. Purse BV, Brown HE, Harrup L, Mertens P, Rogers DJ. Invasion of bluetongue and other orbivirus infections into Europe: the role of biological and climatic processes.. Rev. Sci. Tech. 2008;27:427–442.
    doi: 10.20506/rst.27.2.1801pubmed: 18819670google scholar: lookup
  20. Leta S, Fetene E, Mulatu T, Amenu K, Revie CW. Modeling the global distribution of Culicoides imicola: an Ensemble approach.. Sci. Rep. 2019;9:1.
    doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-50765-1pmc: PMC6775326pubmed: 31578399google scholar: lookup
  21. Thepparat A, Bellis G, Ketavan C, Ruangsittichai J, Apiwathnasorn CT. species of Culicoides Latreille (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) newly recorded from Thailand.. Zootaxa 2015;4033:48–56.
    doi: 10.11646/zootaxa.4033.1.2pubmed: 26624391google scholar: lookup
  22. Raksakoon C, Potiwat R. Current arboviral threats and their potential vectors in Thailand.. Pathogens 2021;10:80.
    doi: 10.3390/pathogens10010080pmc: PMC7831943pubmed: 33477699google scholar: lookup
  23. Gao S. Transboundary spread of peste des petits ruminants virus in western China: A prediction model.. PLoS ONE 2021;16:e0257898–e0257898.
    doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0257898pmc: PMC8459964pubmed: 34555121google scholar: lookup
  24. Joka FR, Van Gils H, Huang L, Wang X. High probability areas for ASF infection in china along the russian and korean borders.. Transbound. Emerg. Dis. .
    pubmed: 30520567doi: 10.1016/j.watres.2015.05.061google scholar: lookup
  25. Steven et al. Opening the black box: an open-source release of Maxent.. Ecography (2017).
  26. Gils HV, Westinga E, Carafa M, Antonucci A, Ciaschetti G. Where the bears roam in Majella National Park, Italy.. J. Nat. Conser. 2014;22:23–34.
    doi: 10.1016/j.jnc.2013.08.001google scholar: lookup
  27. Duque-Lazo J, Navarro-Cerrillo RM, Van Gils H, Groen TA. Forecasting oak decline caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi in Andalusia : identification of priority areas for intervention.. For. Ecol. Manage. 2018;417:122–136.
    doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2018.02.045google scholar: lookup
  28. Duque-Lazo J, Gils HV, Groen TA, Cerrillo RMN. Transferability of species distribution models: The case of Phytophthora cinnamomi in Southwest Spain and Southwest Australia.. Ecol. Model. 2016;320:62–70.
    doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.09.019google scholar: lookup
  29. Zeng Z, Gao S, Wang H-N, Huang L-Y, Wang X-L. A predictive analysis on the risk of peste des petits ruminants in livestock in the Trans-Himalayan region and validation of its transboundary transmission paths.. PLoS ONE 2021;16:e0257094–e0257094.
    doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0257094pmc: PMC8432769pubmed: 34506571google scholar: lookup
  30. Joka FR, Wang H, van Gils H, Wang X. Could wild boar be the Trans-Siberian transmitter of African swine fever?. Transbound. Emerg. Dis. 2020.
    doi: 10.1111/tbed.13814pubmed: 32866334google scholar: lookup
  31. Robin M, Page P, Archer D, Baylis M. African horse sickness: The potential for an outbreak in disease-free regions and current disease control and elimination techniques.. Equine Vet. J. 2016;48:659–669.
    doi: 10.1111/evj.12600pubmed: 27292229google scholar: lookup
  32. Maclachlan NJ, Guthrie AJ. Re-emergence of bluetongue, African horse sickness, and other Orbivirus diseases.. Vet. Res. 2010;41:35.
    doi: 10.1051/vetres/2010007pmc: PMC2826768pubmed: 20167199google scholar: lookup
  33. M. et al. African horse sickness: The potential for an outbreak in disease-free regions and current disease control and elimination techniques.. Equine Vet. J. .
    pubmed: 27292229doi: 10.1111/evj.12600google scholar: lookup
  34. Eagles D, Melville L, Weir R, Davis S. Long-distance aerial dispersal modelling of Culicoides biting midges: case studies of incursions into Australia.. BMC Vet. Res. 2014;10:1.
    doi: 10.1186/1746-6148-10-135pmc: PMC4074460pubmed: 24943652google scholar: lookup
  35. Pedgley DE, Tucker MR. Possible spread of African horse sickness on the wind.. J. Hygiene. 1977;79:279–298.
    doi: 10.1017/S0022172400053109pmc: PMC2129940pubmed: 269203google scholar: lookup
  36. Riddin MA, Venter GJ, Labuschagne K, Villet MH. Culicoides species as potential vectors of African horse sickness virus in the southern regions of South Africa.. Med. Vet. Entomol. 2019;33:1.
    doi: 10.1111/mve.12327pubmed: 31172556google scholar: lookup
  37. Carpenter S, Mellor PS, Fall AG, Garros C, Venter GJ. African horse sickness Virus: History, transmission, and current status.. Annu. Rev. Entomol. 2017;62:343–358.
    doi: 10.1146/annurev-ento-031616-035010pubmed: 28141961google scholar: lookup
  38. https://www.oie.int/wahis_2/public/wahid.php/Countryinformation/Countryreports. (Accessed 12 August 2020).
  39. OIE. African horse sickness(updated April 2013).. OIE Technical Disease Cards Paris, France: World Organisation for Animal Health. (2013).
  40. Ciss M. Ecological niche modelling to estimate the distribution of Culicoides, potential vectors of bluetongue virus in Senegal.. BMC Ecology 19.
    pmc: PMC6825335pubmed: 31676006doi: 10.1186/s12898-019-0261-9google scholar: lookup
  41. Harrup LE. Does covering of farm-associated Culicoides larval habitat reduce adult populations in the United Kingdom?. Vet. Parasitol. 2013;201:137–145.
    doi: 10.1016/j.vetpar.2013.11.028pmc: PMC3989040pubmed: 24472769google scholar: lookup
  42. Hoch AL, Roberts DR, Pinheiro FP. Host-seeking behavior and seasonal abundance of Culicoides paraensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in Brazil.. J. Am. Mosq. Control Assoc. 1990;6:110–114.
    pubmed: 2324715
  43. Carpenter S, Groschup MH, Garros C, Felippe-Bauer ML, Purse BV. Culicoides biting midges, arboviruses and public health in Europe.. Antiviral Res. 2013;100:102–113.
    doi: 10.1016/j.antiviral.2013.07.020pubmed: 23933421google scholar: lookup
  44. Carpenter S, Wilson A, Barber J, Veronesi E, Gubbins S. Temperature Dependence of the Extrinsic Incubation Period of Orbiviruses in Culicoides Biting Midges.. PLoS ONE 2011;6:e27987.
    doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0027987pmc: PMC3220716pubmed: 22125649google scholar: lookup
  45. Yanase T. Molecular Identification of Field-CollectedCulicoidesLarvae in the Southern Part of Japan.. J. Med. Entomol. (2013).
    pubmed: 24180116
  46. Meiswinkel R. Afrotropical Culicoides: C (Avaritia) miombo sp. nov., a widespread species closely allied to C. (A.) imicola Kieffer, 1913 (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae).. Onderstepoort. J. Vet. Res. 58, 155–170 (1991).
    pubmed: 1923378
  47. Sloyer KE. Ecological niche modeling the potential geographic distribution of four Culicoides species of veterinary significance in Florida, USA.. PLoS ONE 2019;14:1.
    doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0206648pmc: PMC6377124pubmed: 30768605google scholar: lookup
  48. Reynolds DR, Chapman JW, Harrington R. The migration of insect vectors of plant and animal viruses.. Adv. Virus Res. 2006;67:453–517.
    doi: 10.1016/S0065-3527(06)67012-7pubmed: 17027687google scholar: lookup
  49. L. et al. Investigating Incursions of Bluetongue Virus Using a Model of Long-Distance Culicoides Biting Midge Dispersal.. Transbound. Emerg. Dis. .
    pubmed: 22672434doi: 10.1111/j.1865-1682.2012.01345.xgoogle scholar: lookup
  50. . Notice of the general office of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas and the general office of the State General Administration of sports on printing and distributing the national horse industry development plan (2020–2025).. (Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau, 2020.09.29).

Citations

This article has been cited 12 times.
  1. Ma X, Zhang M, Zhang X, Qi T, Zhang W, Zhao Y, Na L, Zhang Y, Wang XF, Wang X. Construction and Immunogenicity Evaluation of a Recombinant Fowlpox Virus Expressing VP2 Gene of African Horse Sickness Virus Serotype 1. Microorganisms 2025 Dec 9;13(12).
    doi: 10.3390/microorganisms13122807pubmed: 41472010google scholar: lookup
  2. Zhang M, Wang XF, Guo SF, Wang L, Fu BF, Wang JW, Song YF, Yang XY, Hao SY, Zhang QY, Zhang B, Yang CH. Identification and Genetic Characterization of a Strain of African Horse Sickness Virus Serotype 1 and Its Safety Evaluation in a Mouse Model. Microorganisms 2025 Oct 6;13(10).
    doi: 10.3390/microorganisms13102314pubmed: 41156774google scholar: lookup
  3. Morris RS, Wada M. The Effect of Climate Change on Emergence and Evolution of Zoonotic Diseases in Asia. Zoonoses Public Health 2025 Nov;72(7):587-611.
    doi: 10.1111/zph.70007pubmed: 40888029google scholar: lookup
  4. Kim K, Wang H, Cha J, Wang X. The Geographical Coexist of the Migratory Birds, Ticks, and Nairobi Sheep Disease Virus May Potentially Contribute to the Passive Spreading of Nairobi Sheep Disease. Transbound Emerg Dis 2023;2023:5598142.
    doi: 10.1155/2023/5598142pubmed: 40303826google scholar: lookup
  5. Kim K, Xu T, Kannan Villalan A, Chi T, Yu X, Jin M, Wu R, Ni G, Sui S, Wang Z, Wang X. Environmental and Historical Determinants of African Horse Sickness: Insights from Predictive Modeling. Transbound Emerg Dis 2024;2024:5586647.
    doi: 10.1155/2024/5586647pubmed: 40303017google scholar: lookup
  6. Huang C, Wang J, Ruan Z, Wu J, Lin Y, Cao C, Yang J, Weng Q, Jin Y, Chen P, Hua Q. Real-Time Reverse Transcription Multienzyme Isothermal Rapid Amplification for Rapid Detection of African Horse Sickness Virus. Transbound Emerg Dis 2025;2025:1852368.
    doi: 10.1155/tbed/1852368pubmed: 40302746google scholar: lookup
  7. Ma X, Zhang Y, Na L, Qi T, Ma W, Guo X, Wang XF, Wang X. Identification and Characterization of Linear Epitopes of Monoclonal Antibodies Against African Horse Sickness Virus Serotype 1 VP2 Protein. Viruses 2024 Nov 15;16(11).
    doi: 10.3390/v16111780pubmed: 39599893google scholar: lookup
  8. Zhang S, Chai R, Hu Y, Joka FR, Wu X, Wang H, Wang X. Unveiling the spatial distribution and transboundary pathways of FMD serotype O in Western China and its bordering countries. PLoS One 2024;19(8):e0306746.
    doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0306746pubmed: 39150924google scholar: lookup
  9. Pan J, Villalan AK, Ni G, Wu R, Sui S, Wu X, Wang X. Assessing eco-geographic influences on COVID-19 transmission: a global analysis. Sci Rep 2024 May 22;14(1):11728.
    doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-62300-ypubmed: 38777817google scholar: lookup
  10. Arotolu TE, Wang H, Lv J, Kun S, Huang L, Wang X. Environmental suitability of Yersinia pestis and the spatial dynamics of plague in the Qinghai Lake region, China. Vet Med (Praha) 2022 Oct;67(11):569-578.
    doi: 10.17221/81/2021-VETMEDpubmed: 38623480google scholar: lookup
  11. Chaiyabutr N, Wattanaphansak S, Tantilerdcharoen R, Akesowan S, Ouisuwan S, Naraporn D. Comparative immune responses after vaccination with the formulated inactivated African horse sickness vaccine serotype 1 between naïve horses and pretreated horses with the live-attenuated African horse sickness vaccine. Vet World 2022 Oct;15(10):2365-2375.
    doi: 10.14202/vetworld.2022.2365-2375pubmed: 36425136google scholar: lookup
  12. Arotolu TE, Afe AE, Wang H, Lv J, Shi K, Huang L, Wang X. Spatial modeling and ecological suitability of monkeypox disease in Southern Nigeria. PLoS One 2022;17(9):e0274325.
    doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0274325pubmed: 36126054google scholar: lookup
Subscribe to our newsletter
Join 99,075 horse owners like you who receive our email updates on horse health and nutrition.