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Transboundary and emerging diseases2022; 69(4); e671-e681; doi: 10.1111/tbed.14420

Re-parameterization of a mathematical model of African horse sickness virus using data from a systematic literature search.

Abstract: African horse sickness (AHS) is a vector-borne disease transmitted by Culicoides spp., endemic to sub-Saharan Africa. There have been many examples of historic and recent outbreaks in the Middle East, Asia and Europe. However, not much is known about infection dynamics and outbreak potential in these naive populations. In order to better inform a previously published ordinary differential equation model, we performed a systematic literature search to identify studies documenting experimental infection of naive (control) equids in vaccination trials. Data on the time until the onset of viraemia, clinical signs and death after experimental infection of a naive equid and duration of viraemia were extracted. The time to viraemia was 4.6 days and the time to clinical signs was 4.9 days, longer than the previously estimated latent period of 3.7 days. The infectious periods of animals that died/were euthanized or survived were found to be 3.9 and 8.7 days, whereas previous estimations were 4.4 and 6 days, respectively. The case fatality was also found to be higher than previous estimations. The updated parameter values (along with other more recently published estimates from literature) resulted in an increase in the number of host deaths, decrease in the duration of the outbreak and greater prevalence in vectors.
© 2021 The Authors. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases published by Wiley-VCH GmbH.
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Publication Date: 2022-01-12 PubMed ID: 34921513PubMed Central: PMC9543668DOI: 10.1111/tbed.14420Google Scholar: Lookup
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Summary

This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.

The researchers in this study sought to better understand African horse sickness and its transmission dynamics by adjusting parameters in a previously developed mathematical model based on newer, more precise data gathered from a systematic literature review.

Context and Purpose

  • African horse sickness (AHS) is a disease primarily affecting horses and is transmitted by Culicoides species. This disease is mostly found in sub-Saharan Africa, but sporadic outbreaks have been recorded in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.
  • Despite the widespread impact of AHS, very little is known about how the disease spreads or how outbreaks occur in previously unaffected populations.
  • The purpose of this study was to refine an existing mathematical model of AHS transmission. This was done by using updated data collected from a systematic review of literature on the experimental infection of unvaccinated, or ‘naive’, horses.

Methodology

  • Researchers carried out a systematic literature review to find studies that documented experimental infection trials in naive equines, or horses that had not been previously vaccinated against AHS.
  • From these studies, they obtained data on the interval between infection and the appearance of viremia (the presence of viruses in the blood), the occurrence of clinical symptoms, and death. They also collected data on the duration of viremia.

Findings

  • The researchers found that the time from infection to the onset of viremia was approximately 4.6 days, and the time from infection to the appearance of clinical symptoms was about 4.9 days. These times are longer than the earlier estimated latent period of 3.7 days.
  • The duration of infectiousness in animals that died or were euthanized was around 3.9 days, and 8.7 days in animals that survived. These durations are slightly different than the previous estimates of 4.4 and 6 days, respectively.
  • The case fatality rate was also found to be higher than previously estimated.

Implications

  • Using these updated parameters, the researchers revised the existing mathematical model of AHS infection. The revised model offered a more accurate representation, predicting more host deaths, a shorter duration for outbreaks, and a higher prevalence in vector species, compared to the earlier version.
  • This refined model could provide valuable insights for future studies on AHS and may inform better strategies for controlling or preventing outbreaks of this disease.

Cite This Article

APA
Fairbanks EL, Brennan ML, Mertens PPC, Tildesley MJ, Daly JM. (2022). Re-parameterization of a mathematical model of African horse sickness virus using data from a systematic literature search. Transbound Emerg Dis, 69(4), e671-e681. https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.14420

Publication

Transboundary and emerging diseases
ISSN: 1865-1682
NlmUniqueID: 101319538
Country: Germany
Language: English
Volume: 69
Issue: 4
Pages: e671-e681

Researcher Affiliations

Fairbanks, Emma L
  • School of Veterinary Medicine and Science, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.
Brennan, Marnie L
  • School of Veterinary Medicine and Science, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.
Mertens, Peter P C
  • School of Veterinary Medicine and Science, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.
Tildesley, Michael J
  • The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.
Daly, Janet M
  • School of Veterinary Medicine and Science, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.

MeSH Terms

  • African Horse Sickness / epidemiology
  • African Horse Sickness Virus
  • Animals
  • Ceratopogonidae
  • Horse Diseases
  • Horses
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Viremia / veterinary

Grant Funding

  • BBS/E/I/00001144 / Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
  • BBS/E/I/00001446 / Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
  • 1944283 / BBSRC
  • 727293 PALE-Blu / EU H2020

Conflict of Interest Statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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