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Home / Equine Research Bank / Sci Rep / Risk factors for, and prediction of, exertional heat illness...
Scientific reports2023; 13(1); 3063; doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-27892-x

Risk factors for, and prediction of, exertional heat illness in Thoroughbred racehorses at British racecourses.

Abstract: The development of exertional heat illness (EHI) is a health, welfare and performance concern for racehorses. However, there has been limited multivariable assessment of the possible risk factors for EHI in racehorses, despite such information being vital for regulators to effectively manage the condition. Consequently, this study aimed to identify the risk factors associated with the occurrence of EHI in Thoroughbred racehorses and assess the ability of the risk factor model to predict the occurrence of EHI in racehorses to assist in early identification. Runners at British racecourses recorded in the British Horseracing Authority database between 1st July 2010 and 30th April 2018 were used to model the probability that a horse would present with EHI as a function of a suite of environmental, horse level and race level factors. EHI was reported in 0.1% of runners. Race distance, wet bulb globe temperature, preceding 5-day temperature average, occurrence of a previous EHI incident, going, year and race off time were identified as risk factors for EHI. The model performed better than chance in classifying incidents with a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve score of 0.884 (SD = 0.02) but had a large number of false positives. The results provide vital evidence for industry on the need to provide appropriate cool down facilities, identify horses that have repeated EHI incidents for early intervention, and collect new data streams such as on course wet bulb globe temperature measurements. The results are especially relevant as the sport is operating in a changing climate and must mitigate against more extreme and longer spells of hot weather.
© 2023. The Author(s).
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Publication Date: 2023-03-14 PubMed ID: 36918525PubMed Central: PMC10015008DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-27892-xGoogle Scholar: Lookup
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Summary

This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.

This research article focuses on predicting and identifying risk factors associated with Exertional Heat Illness (EHI) in Thoroughbred racehorses. Results show factors such as race distance, ambient temperature, past occurrences of EHI and other variables play a crucial role in the development of EHI. The study could aid in early detection and prevention of EHI, especially considering the impact of climate change.

Objective of the Study

  • The primary aim of this study was to determine the risk factors related to the development of EHI in Thoroughbred racehorses.
  • It also aimed to evaluate the efficacy of a model in predicting the occurrence of EHI, an outcome that could be pivotal in its early detection and prevention.

    • 2

    Data Collection Method

    • Data was obtained from the British Horseracing Authority database, comprising records of runners at British racecourses between 1st July 2010 and 30th April 2018.
    • This data was used to model the probability of a horse presenting with EHI, considering a range of environmental, horse level, and race level factors.

    Key Findings

    • The incidence of EHI was noted to be 0.1% among the runners.
    • Several risk factors for EHI were identified including race distance, the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (measures the effect of temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation on humans), the 5-day temperature average preceding a race, a past EHI incident, the type of going (ground on which the race was run), the year and the time the race started.
    • The model was successful in predicting incidents better than random chance would, reflected by a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve score of 0.884. However, the model also had a high count of false positives.

      • Relevance of Findings

      • This research can have significant implications for Thoroughbred racing, helping industry stakeholders understand the necessity of suitable cool-down facilities and early identification of horses with recurring EHI events for proactive intervention.
      • Other takeaways include the consideration of new data streams like on-course Wet Bulb Globe Temperature measurements.
      • With advancing climate change causing more extreme and longer spells of hot weather, this research holds increased relevance for the sport’s smooth operation and horse welfare.

Cite This Article

APA
Trigg LE, Lyons S, Mullan S. (2023). Risk factors for, and prediction of, exertional heat illness in Thoroughbred racehorses at British racecourses. Sci Rep, 13(1), 3063. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-27892-x

Publication

Scientific reports
ISSN: 2045-2322
NlmUniqueID: 101563288
Country: England
Language: English
Volume: 13
Issue: 1
Pages: 3063
PII: 3063

Researcher Affiliations

Trigg, Leah E
  • Bristol Veterinary School, University of Bristol, Langford House, Langford, Bristol, BS40 5DU, UK. leah.trigg@bristol.ac.uk.
Lyons, Sally
  • British Horseracing Authority, 75 High Holborn, London, WC1V 6LS, UK.
Mullan, Siobhan
  • School of Veterinary Medicine, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland.

MeSH Terms

  • Horses
  • Animals
  • Hot Temperature
  • Heat Stress Disorders / epidemiology
  • Heat Stress Disorders / veterinary
  • Heat Stress Disorders / etiology
  • Sports
  • Risk Factors
  • Temperature

Conflict of Interest Statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

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Citations

This article has been cited 3 times.
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