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BMC veterinary research2014; 10; 265; doi: 10.1186/s12917-014-0265-9

Spatial and temporal distribution of incidence of acquired equine polyneuropathy in Norway and Sweden, 1995-2012.

Abstract: Acquired equine polyneuropathy (AEP) is an emerging disease in horses in Sweden, Norway and Finland since 1995. Affected horses show bilateral pelvic limb knuckling and weakness, sometimes progressing to recumbency and euthanasia. The aetiology is unknown but is thought to be non-infectious and non-genetic, though possibly toxic or toxico-infectious. The objectives of this study were to describe the spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal features of AEP in Norway and Sweden for the period of 1995 to 2012. Data from all documented case farms (n = 136) were used. Space-time interaction clustering of case farms was investigated with a retrospective space-time scan statistic with a space-time permutation model, the space-time K-function and the Jacquez k nearest neighbour (kNN) test. Results: There was a clear seasonality in disease occurrence, as 123 case farms presented their first case from January to May. However, there was large variation in the number of case farms between years. Case farms were more numerous in certain regions. Despite the larger horse population in Sweden, 120 of the case farms were in Norway. Space-time clustering was supported by the K-function and partly by the space-time scan, but not by the Jacquez k nearest neighbour (kNN) test. Conclusions: The results suggest an aetiology for AEP where the exposure is not consistent in time, but varies during and between years, assuming that the incubation period does not vary greatly. The results further suggest that the exposure varies between regions as well. Two out of three different analytical methods supported spatio-temporal clustering of case farms, which rendered inconclusive results. The negative result in the kNN test might be explained by lack of power, which is due to the small number of outbreaks in relation to the size of the study area and length of the study period, and further by the low to moderate power of methods to detect space-time clustering when the background population is unknown. Further research is needed to study how management, meteorological variables and other factors with local or regional differences may explain outbreaks of AEP.
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Publication Date: 2014-11-15 PubMed ID: 25398211PubMed Central: PMC4234854DOI: 10.1186/s12917-014-0265-9Google Scholar: Lookup
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Summary

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This research investigates the occurrence and clustering of Acquired Equine Polyneuropathy (AEP) in horses in Norway and Sweden, providing insights on the spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal patterns from 1995 to 2012. The results indicate fluctuations in the disease’s manifestations across locations and periods.

Objective of the Research

  • The research aims to uncover the spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal attributes of AEP in Norway and Sweden for the period between 1995 and 2012.
  • By better understanding these characteristics, the researchers hope to shed light on the disease’s etiology, or cause, which is currently under debate.

Methodology Utilized

  • The study analyzed data from documented 136 case farms.
  • Researchers used a retrospective space-time scan statistic with a space-time permutation model, the space-time K-function, and the Jacquez k nearest neighbor (kNN) test for investigating the clustering of case farms in space and time.

Key Findings

  • The analysis revealed a clear seasonality in disease occurrence, with 123 case farms experiencing their first case from January to May.
  • There was a significant variation in the number of case farms between years, indicating that the disease occurrence is not consistent over time.
  • Despite a larger horse population in Sweden, most of the cases (120 out of 136) were in Norway, showing a regional difference in disease occurence.
  • Two out of three different analytical methods supported space-time clustering of case farms.

Conclusions and Further Expectations

  • The results suggest an aetiology for AEP where exposure varies both in time (across and between years) and by region.
  • The inconclusive results from the three analytical methods used for cluster analysis point to the need for further research with perhaps more refined methodologies considering the size of the study area and the length of the study period.
  • Further research is recommended to investigate the impact of management practices, meteorological variables, and any other factors with local or regional differences that may explain outbreaks of AEP.

Cite This Article

APA
Wolff C, Egenvall A, Hanche-Olsen S, Gröndahl G. (2014). Spatial and temporal distribution of incidence of acquired equine polyneuropathy in Norway and Sweden, 1995-2012. BMC Vet Res, 10, 265. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12917-014-0265-9

Publication

BMC veterinary research
ISSN: 1746-6148
NlmUniqueID: 101249759
Country: England
Language: English
Volume: 10
Pages: 265
PII: 265

Researcher Affiliations

Wolff, Cecilia
    Egenvall, Agneta
      Hanche-Olsen, Siv
        Gröndahl, Gittan

          MeSH Terms

          • Animals
          • Horse Diseases / epidemiology
          • Horses
          • Incidence
          • Norway / epidemiology
          • Polyneuropathies / epidemiology
          • Polyneuropathies / veterinary
          • Retrospective Studies
          • Seasons
          • Space-Time Clustering
          • Sweden / epidemiology

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          Citations

          This article has been cited 3 times.
          1. Ndhlovu F, Ndhlovu DN, Chikerema SM, Masocha M, Nyagura M, Pfukenyi DM. Spatiotemporal patterns of clinical bovine dermatophilosis in Zimbabwe 1995-2014. Onderstepoort J Vet Res 2017 Jun 27;84(1):e1-e8.
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