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Journal of medical entomology2022; 59(5); 1805-1816; doi: 10.1093/jme/tjac113

Spatiotemporal Environmental Drivers of Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus in Central Florida: Towards a Predictive Model for a Lethal Disease.

Abstract: Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) is a mosquito-borne virus that affects humans and horses, with a high case fatality rate in both species. The virus can be transmitted by several mosquito species and maintained in multiple reservoir hosts, making EEEV dynamics difficult to anticipate. In this study, we identified spatial and temporal factors that precede EEEV detection using sentinel chicken surveillance data from Orange County, Florida, from 2003 to 2017. We first examined the land cover and mosquito species composition associated with sentinel chicken sites. We then fit distributed lag nonlinear models of EEEV detection at the county scale, using monthly temperature, precipitation, and Southern Oscillation Index values, and at the sentinel flock-scale, using remotely sensed temperature and wetness indicators. We found positive associations between the percent wooded wetlands and the count of EEEV detections. We found Culiseta melanura (Diptera: Culicidae) were more abundant at positive sites in winter and summer, but Coquillettidia perturbans (Walker) were more abundant at positive sites in spring. In the county-wide model, precipitation, temperature, and Southern Oscillation Index values at lags of two, nine, and twelve months were significant, respectively, while temperature and wetness were significant at lags of eight and six months in the flock-specific models.
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Publication Date: 2022-08-13 PubMed ID: 35957606PubMed Central: PMC10551852DOI: 10.1093/jme/tjac113Google Scholar: Lookup
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  • Journal Article
  • Research Support
  • U.S. Gov't
  • P.H.S.
  • Research Support
  • U.S. Gov't
  • Non-P.H.S.

Summary

This research summary has been generated with artificial intelligence and may contain errors and omissions. Refer to the original study to confirm details provided. Submit correction.

This research article discusses the environmental and temporal factors that affect the occurrence of the Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) in Central Florida. It proposes a predictive model for this lethal virus which affects both humans and horses, and which is transmitted by mosquitoes.

Research Methodology

  • The researchers used surveillance data collected from sentinel chickens in Orange County, Florida, from 2003 to 2017.
  • The spatial and temporal correlations prior to EEEV detection were examined to understand potential drivers of viral occurrence.
  • Specifically, researchers looked at two elements: the type of land cover and mosquito species around chicken sites.

Tools and Models Used

  • The study employed distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs) of EEEV detection. These models capture distributed lag effects between environmental exposures and a health outcome.
  • Various environmental factors were considered in the model such as monthly temperature, precipitation, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).
  • For flock-specific trends, remote sensing was used to analyze visual and thermal data related to temperature and moisture.

Findings of the Study

  • The study discovered a positive correlation between the occurrence of EEEV and the percentage of wooded wetlands in an area.
  • Specific mosquito species were found more abundantly at sites with positive EEEV detection. Culiseta melanura was common during winter and summer seasons while Coquillettidia perturbans proliferated in spring.
  • For the county-wide model, precipitation, temperature, and SOI values showed significance at specific lag times (two, nine, and twelve months respectively).
  • On the other hand, temperature and wetness were significant at lags of eight and six months in the flock-specific models.

Implications of the Study

  • The findings of this study provide possible key indicators for predicting future occurrences of the potentially deadly EEEV.
  • The study proposes that careful monitoring of the identified environmental and temporal factors could help manage and control the spread of the virus.
  • This research suggests a direction for further studies in creating predictive models for other mosquito-borne diseases.

Cite This Article

APA
Mundis SJ, Harrison S, Pelley D, Durand S, Ryan SJ. (2022). Spatiotemporal Environmental Drivers of Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus in Central Florida: Towards a Predictive Model for a Lethal Disease. J Med Entomol, 59(5), 1805-1816. https://doi.org/10.1093/jme/tjac113

Publication

Journal of medical entomology
ISSN: 1938-2928
NlmUniqueID: 0375400
Country: England
Language: English
Volume: 59
Issue: 5
Pages: 1805-1816

Researcher Affiliations

Mundis, Stephanie J
  • Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
  • Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
Harrison, Steve
  • Orange County Mosquito Control, Orlando, FL, USA.
Pelley, Dave
  • Orange County Mosquito Control, Orlando, FL, USA.
Durand, Susan
  • Orange County Mosquito Control, Orlando, FL, USA.
Ryan, Sadie J
  • Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
  • Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
  • School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.

MeSH Terms

  • Animals
  • Chickens
  • Culicidae
  • Encephalitis Virus, Eastern Equine
  • Encephalomyelitis, Equine
  • Florida
  • Horse Diseases / epidemiology
  • Horses
  • Humans
  • Seasons

Grant Funding

  • U01 CK000510 / NCEZID CDC HHS
  • U01CK000510 / ACL HHS

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Citations

This article has been cited 2 times.
  1. Hill V, Koch RT, Bialosuknia SM, Ngo K, Zink SD, Koetzner CA, Maffei JG, Dupuis AP, Backenson PB, Oliver J, Bransfield AB, Misencik MJ, Petruff TA, Shepard JJ, Warren JL, Gill MS, Baele G, Vogels CBF, Gallagher G, Burns P, Hentoff A, Smole S, Brown C, Osborne M, Kramer LD, Armstrong PM, Ciota AT, Grubaugh ND. Dynamics of eastern equine encephalitis virus during the 2019 outbreak in the Northeast United States. Curr Biol 2023 Jun 19;33(12):2515-2527.e6.
    doi: 10.1016/j.cub.2023.05.047pubmed: 37295427google scholar: lookup
  2. Hill V, Koch RT, Bialosuknia SM, Ngo K, Zink SD, Koetzner CA, Maffei JG, Dupuis AP, Backenson PB, Oliver J, Bransfield AB, Misencik MJ, Petruff TA, Shepard JJ, Warren JL, Gill MS, Baele G, Vogels CBF, Gallagher G, Burns P, Hentoff A, Smole S, Brown C, Osborne M, Kramer LD, Armstrong PM, Ciota AT, Grubaugh ND. Dynamics of Eastern equine encephalitis virus during the 2019 outbreak in the Northeast United States. medRxiv 2023 Mar 6;.
    doi: 10.1101/2023.03.06.23286851pubmed: 36945576google scholar: lookup
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